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In progress NPD predicting tool

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03/01/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 44 (-8) - 298.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 49 (-17) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 62 (-13) - 399.99$
5 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 79 (+16) - 319.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 81 (-21) - 233.00$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 89 (+4) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 75 (+15) - TP

PS4 : 39 + 22 = 61 points (-27) ; XBO : 20 + 12 = 32 points (-17) ; NS : 165 + 64 + 54 = 283 points (-60)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 4 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 17 (+1) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 33 (-7) - 249.99$
9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield V - 85 (R) - 449.99$
10 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 - 95 (R) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 190 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 165 + 130 + 86 + 16 + 6 = 403 points (+13) ; NS : 195 + 170 + 155 = 520 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (+1)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 28 (+10)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (+18)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 61 (+26)
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 122 (+15)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 126 (-4)
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 134 (+16)
8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 171 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 140 + 38 = 178 points (+34) ; XBO : 145 + 90 + 34 + 15 = 284 point (+74) ; NS : 185 + 40 = 225 points (+8)

Overall :

1 - NS : 555.4 points (-42.0) ; Month Average : 506.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 507.3 points (+81.9) ; Month Average : 261.1 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.02)
3 - PS4 : 304.8 points (+11.4) ; Month Average : 239.4 points/day ; 0.47 (-)

Next update will be the last one for February...

No tax refunds here in France, but we only pay what we have to...



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Hardware revision shares (March 1st):

PS4:

Slim: 22*0.8+(200+23)*02+140= 202.2
Pro: 39*08+190*0.2+38= 107.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 65.3/34.7%

Xbox One:

S: (20*0.8+ (130+86+6)*0.2+145+90+15)*1.3= 403.3
X: (12*0.8+(165+16)*0.2+34)*1.3= 103.7

S/X ratio: 79.5/20.5%

Slim+S 605.5/Pro+X 210.9

Total ratio: 74.2%/25.8%

S again sells about as much as the other ones combined. Maybe the Tax returns are too small to afford one of the upgrade consoles? At least they are consistently selling a lot less good compared to their base models right now.

Also Tax returns only happen in Luxembourg if you paid too much, which is rare unless the tax law just changed. But then like I said they pay you back in or after summer.



03/02/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 45 (-1) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 51 (-2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 61 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 78 (R) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 80 (+1) - 233.00$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 92 (-13) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 89 (+4) - 399.99$

PS4 : 40 + 23 + 9 = 72 points (+11) ; XBO : 21 points (-11) ; NS : 160 + 54 + 50 = 264 points (-19)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 2 (+2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 15 (+2) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 44 (-11) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield V - 85 (R) - 449.99$
10 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 - 95 (R) - 249.99$

PS4 : 210 + 185 = 395 points (+5) ; XBO : 165 + 140 + 64 = 369 points (-34) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 160 = 545 points (+25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (+1)
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 22 (+7)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 36 (-8)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 54 (+7)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 100 (+22)
6 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 123 (N)
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 132 (+2)
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 138 (-12)
9 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 144 (N)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 171 (R)

PS4 : 160 + 32 = 192 points (+14) ; XBO : 125 + 98 + 35 = 258 point (-26) ; NS : 190 + 52 + 39 + 29 = 310 points (+85)

Overall :

1 - NS : 630.2 points (+74.8) ; Month Average : 510.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 453.2 points (-54.1) ; Month Average : 267.9 points/day ; 0.52 (-)
3 - PS4 : 328.6 points (+23.8) ; Month Average : 242.6 points/day ; 0.48 (+0.01)


Last February update. This one should be a confortable win for Switch. I would not bet on second place though...



IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?



Hardware revision shares (March 2nd):

PS4:

Slim: (23+9)*0.8+(210)*02+160= 227.6
Pro: 40*08+185*0.2+32= 101

Slim/Pro ratio: 69.3/30.7%

Xbox One:

S: (21*0.8+ (140+64)*0.2+125+98)*1.3= 364.8
X: (0*0.8+(165+16)*0.2+35)*1.3= 92.5

S/X ratio: 79.8/20.2%

Slim+S 592.4/Pro+X 193.5

Total ratio: 75.4%/24.6%

Little changes in the ratios right now, Pro/X lost a little bit but the change is negligible.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?

That got tended to, the calculation gets multiplied by 1.3 to get it's end result on the graph to counter that tracking error we had in the past.



Symbios you'll have to introduce a variable "Number of SKU" in your methodology and a weight with the rank system.



03/03/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 49 (-4) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 51 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (-8) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 83 (-3) - 233.00$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 86 (+6) - 319.99$
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 93 (R) - TP
8 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 97 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 78 (R) - 299.99$


PS4 : 32 + 15 = 47 points (-25) ; XBO : 18 + 8 + 4 = 30 points (+9) ; NS : 160 + 54 + 50 = 264 points (-8)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+4) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 5 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 11 (-1) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 16 (-1) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 59 (-15) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 180 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 160 + 135 + 42 = 337 points (-32) ; NS : 200 + 190 + 170 = 560 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (-)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 18 (+4)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 28 (+8)
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 38 (+85)
5 (+4) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 52 (+92)
6 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 63 (-9)
7 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 125 (-25)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 136 (+2)
9 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 147 (-15)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 33 = 203 points (+11) ; XBO : 145 + 88 + 27 = 260 point (+2) ; NS : 190 + 120 + 100 + 38 = 448 points (+138)

Overall :

1 - NS : 771.2 points (-) ; Month Average : 771.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 456.8 points (-) ; Month Average : 456.8 points/day ; 0.59 (-)
3 - PS4 : 318.6 points (-) ; Month Average : 318.6 points/day ; 0.41 (-)



I wonder if the S is selling well as a 4k blu ray player along with the 4k TV's people are purchasing with their tax returns.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?

That got tended to, the calculation gets multiplied by 1.3 to get it's end result on the graph to counter that tracking error we had in the past.

Ok thanks.  It really is close for second place then.