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In progress NPD predicting tool

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February NPD came by and Amazon was not on point with predicting this one...

The idea of this thread is to use the best selling list of main US retailers to try and build a formula allowing us to predict the outcome of incoming NPD.

The basic idea is to allocate points to hardware depending on their ranking (100 for rank 1, 99 for rank 2 etc...) on the 5 main retailers online best selling list (Amazon, Best Buy, Gamestop, Walmart and Target).

I just did it so you get the idea...

 

- Amazon : 

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 - 299.00$ - In stock
2 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 - 299.00$ - In stock
3 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 - 299.99$ - In stock
4 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 68 - Out of Stock
5 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 69 - 399.00$ - In Stock
6 - XBox One S 500Gb - 81 - 244.99$ - In stock March 26
7 - Super Nes Classic - 83 - Third Party Sellers Only
8 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 92 - 497.95$ - In Stock

PS4 : 62 + 33 + 32 = 127 points   ;   XBO : 20 + 9 = 29 points   ;   NS : 76 + 79 =  155 points   ;   Snes C : 18 points

 

- Best Buy : 

1 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 13 - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 - 299.99$ - Get it March 22nd
3 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 17 - 499.99$ - Get it March 22nd
4 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 18 - 399.00$ - Get it March 22nd
5 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 - 299.00$ - Get it March 22nd
6 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 - 299.00$ - Get it March 22nd
7 - New 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 27 - 174.99$ - Get it March 22nd
8 - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 - Get it March 22nd

PS4 : 88 + 86 + 83 = 257 points   ;   XBO : 84 + 72 = 156 points   ;   NS : 82 + 75 =  157 points   ;   3DS : 74 points 


- Gamestop : 

1 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 5 - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 25 - 399.99$ - In Stock
3 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 33 - 449.99$ - Out of Stock
4 - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 53 - In Stock
5 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 75 - 299.99$ In Stock

PS4 : 96 + 76 + 68 + 26 = 266 points   ;   XBO : 48 points   


- Walmart :

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 - 299.00$ - In Stock
4 - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 34 - 79.96$ - In Stock
5 - New Nintendo 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 35 - 199.96$ - In Stock
6 - XBox One S 500Gb - 39 - 245.40$ - Third Party Seller
7 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 40 - 499.99$ - In Stock
8 - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 41 - 269.99$ - In Stock
9 - XBox One X 1 Tb Project Scorpio Edition - 42 - 608.90$ - Third Party Seller
10 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 43 - 299.99$ - In Stock
11 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 44 - 399.00$ - In Stock
12 - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 49 - 149.00$ - In Stock
13 - Super Nes Classic - 50 - Third Party Seller
14 - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 54 - 79.00$ - In Stock
15 - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 67 - 299.00$ - In Stock
16 - Super Nes Classic - 73 - Third Party Seller
17 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 86 - 
399.96$ - Preorder

PS4 : 72 + 60 + 58 + 57 + 15 = 262 points   ;   XBO : 62 + 61 + 59 + 34 = 216 points   ;   NS : 80 + 68 =  148 points   ;   Snes C : 51 + 28 = 79 points   ;   3DS : 67 + 66 + 52 + 47 = 232

 

Target : 

1 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3
2 - Super Nes Classic - 4
3 - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8
4 - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10
5 - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 23
6 - XBox One X 1 Tb - 30
7 - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 38
8 - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 63
9 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 69
10 - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 76
11 - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 77
12 - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 82

PS4 : 91 + 32 + 25 = 148 points   ;   XBO : 78 + 71 + 63 = 212 points   ;   NS : 98 + 93 =  191 points   ;   Snes C : 97 points   ;   3DS : 38 + 24 + 19 = 81 points


Overall : 

PS4 : 1060 points
XBO : 661 points
NS : 651 points
3DS : 387 points
Snes C : 194 points


What we get is a confortable first spot for PS4 with Switch and XBO fighting for second place.

However, using this raw data is probably not much more accurate than using Amazon ranking alone (which has shown to not be that bad most of the time mind you).

The idea is to keep an eye on those data untill the end of march and use the March NPD result to twist the formula if needed. What I mean by that is maybe some retailers are more important than others or some of them are "biased" toward one system or the other or maybe the point system has to be twisted (like more points for top 20 ranked items) etc...

Maybe there are twists that can be made right now (like maybe it is known (not by me) that amazon usually sells twice as many hardware than target or something along those lines, or maybe there is another important retailer that can be used...).

The aim is to become able to accurately predict NPD ranking and maybe (very unlikely) getting an idea on relative sale volumes.

This is all for the fun of trying to build something but we (or I if nobody cares lol) will fail a lot and may never get anything worthwhile... (Main thing is that online sells will never accurately depict the whole sale picture...)

So, for those who think this might be fun, I would like to hear your suggestions.

 

edit : links to lists

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchpage.jsp?cp=1&searchType=search&nrp=15&seeAll=&browsedCategory=abcat0700000&qp=newreleases_facet%3DReleases~New%20Releases&ks=960&sp=-bestsellingsort%20skuidsaas&sc=Global&list=y&usc=All%20Categories&type=page&id=pcat17071&iht=n&st=categoryid%24abcat0700000&lid=Products%3A%20All%20New%20Releases

 

https://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,134f

 

https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames#1

Last edited by Symbios63 - 5 days ago

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Good idea, im looking forward to seeing how this develops.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I LOVE this idea, will be fun to see if its got a higher prediction accuracy than just amazon alone (Id assume so).

Number of days to reach 50M from 40M : 198 days
Number of days to reach 60M from 50M : 187 days
Number of days to reach 70M from 60M : 175 days
Number of days to reach 80M from 70M : 190+ days (VGz)

Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249

That is such a great idea.



Switch out of stock at Gamestop?

DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

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peachbuggy said:
Switch out of stock at Gamestop?

Nope, first sku is a Odyssey bundle which is ranked 102. This is odd indeed.



Will be pretty hard to always update all of those by yourself. If you need any help I'm willing to help out.

Well, I guess you'll have to keep this running for a few months to see how well it works!

  


jason1637 said:
Will be pretty hard to always update all of those by yourself. If you need any help I'm willing to help out.

Thanks a lot for the offer.

As I mentionned in the Amazon thread, I will be away from home/computer for a few days due to work and won't be able to do any update...

That said, Amazon aside, I don't know much about refresh rate for those best selling list (I think best buy is daily but have no idea for the others...) so I don't know how often we will need to update. When I am back on Saturday, I think I can handle this on my own but if you feel like tackling one or two of those in a daily (maybe) fashion, that would be amazing.



Good luck