The idea of this thread is to use the online best selling list of main US retailers to try and build a formula allowing us to predict the outcome of incoming NPD.
After a few month, here is what we do :
- The retailers tracked are : - Amazon, - Best Buy, - Gamestop
- The basic idea is to allocate points to hardware depending on their ranking on the 3 retailers online best selling list : Rank 1 = 210 points, Rank 2 = 205 points, ... , Rank 21 = 110 points, Rank 22 = 108 points, ... , Rank 51 = 50 points, Rank 52 = 49 points, ... , Rank 100 = 1 point. The amount of points for each rank has been determined empirically over a few month.
- Retailers are weighted in the formula as follow : Overall points = Gamestop x 1 + Best Buy x 0.2 + Amazon x 0.8. Again, this was determined empirically.
- Concerning Gamestop, we look at Top 200 instead of Top 100 because the amount of figurines and T-shirt can make it difficult to find hardwares in the top 100. However, if an item is ranked 124, we consider it to be ranked 62. If it is ranked 10, we consider it to be ranked 5 etc... Then the point system applies normally.
We check those best selling lists everyday and then we do an average for the month ("NPD month").
We then use those averages to try and predict the next NPD result (Ranking and ratios only).
Here are results from previous months :
April 2018
Tool result : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.0) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
NPD Results : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.0) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)
May 2018
Tool result : 1) PS4 : 512.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 388.1 points/day (0.76) ; 3) XBO : 217.0 points/day (0.42)
NPD Results : PS4 : 223k (1.0) ; NS : 167k (0.75) ; XBO : 145k (0.65)
June 2018
Tool result : 1) PS4 : 438.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 397.5 points/day (0.91) ; 3) XBO : 247.9 points/day (0.57)
NPD results : PS4 : 375k (1.0) ; NS : 325k (0.87) ; XBO : 240k (0.64) (No leak this month, those are estimates from NPD vague statements...)
July 2018
Tool result : 1) NS : 413.2 points/day (1.00) ; 2) XBO : 160.4 points/day (0.39) ; 3) PS4 : 138.9 points/day (0.34)
NPD results : 1) NS : 263k (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 187k (0.71) ; 3) XBO : 152k (0.57)
August 2018
Tool result : 1) PS4 : 315.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.99) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.89)
NPD results : 1) NS : 215k (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 209k (0.97) ; 3) XBO : 172k (0.80)
September 2018
Tool result : 1) PS4 : 503.2 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 351.7 points/day (0.70) ; 3) XBO : 226.8 points/day (0.45)
NPD results : 1) PS4 : 425k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 260k (0.62) ; 3) XBO : 175k (0.41)
Links to lists :
https://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,134f
https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames#1
Last edited by Symbios63 - on 31 October 2018
