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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

Ryng_Tolu said:
fatslob-:O said:

We did NOT have NPD numbers for January 2012 for 3DS ... 

All we got was the qualifier that the 3DS was 90% down compared to last month ... (never got NPD numbers either for December 2011 for 3DS) 

December NPD 2011 - 1.606.000 3DS sold

 

There you go.

we have no idea what switch did, nintedo could have shipped 200k super nes mini, its still sold out. i believe if it was a 4 week period it would be 180-200k. 



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Kerotan said:
Nuvendil said:

Amazon has ALWAYS only ever been relaible at predicting ranks NOT SALES NUMBERS.  This has been accepted for years yet in recent months a revisionist, false narrative of it being used to predict numbers and ratios has been drummed up - borderline invented from whole cloth - by people who, for whatever pitiful reason, want to discredit the practice of tracking them.  And so I will say again - and again and again and again if necessary - the Amazon charts predict the end month sales RANKINGS not numbers nor the gap. 

End of story. 

Move. On.

In reality this issue arose from the fact people were claiming switch would win npd by big margins because of amazon data. People rightfully pointed out how it's Switch biased so that's not the case. Ironically your post was revisionist regsrding the root cause of this. 

There have always been people throwing guesses out.  No one made an issue of it until recently.  And no one ever used that to try and undermine the threads.  I'll have you know Amazon has incorrectly said PS4 would win 5 times since 2013 but no one ever lost their crap and said Amazon was unreliable and shouldn't be trusted because of Sony bias. Because Amazon isn't used for that.  If people make ill advised guesses, that's fine.  The revisionism comes in with people implying that Amazon was once a reliable predictor of sales and gaps but now isn't because of dat dastardly Switch bias.

Also, the "bias" is simple to understand.  Switch has 2 SKUs.  So all sales AND all resales are tied to two ranks on Amazon.  PS4 has several bundles, some available from Amazon and others from resellers.  Therefore, the sales are dispersed over more rankings, thus lowering the positioning of each.  Xbox, same thing.  



quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

December NPD 2011 - 1.606.000 3DS sold

 

There you go.

we have no idea what switch did, nintedo could have shipped 200k super nes mini, its still sold out. i believe if it was a 4 week period it would be 180-200k. 

You'll see soon.



Ryng_Tolu said:
quickrick said:

we have no idea what switch did, nintedo could have shipped 200k super nes mini, its still sold out. i believe if it was a 4 week period it would be 180-200k. 

You'll see soon.

i just don't believe ps4/xb1 sold that much, switch was close to those consoles, no way they both did more then 190k for 4 weeks. we also know ps4 didn't have it's best January.

Last edited by quickrick - on 22 February 2018

Ryng_Tolu said:
Lawlight said:

Btw, do you still think that the Switch will have a much bigger market share than 40% in 2018 in the US? And do you think you 104k gap between the PS4 and Switch in January is accurate? Or you 174k gap between the Switch and the X1 for that matter?

I don't get why you are so interesting in my January prediction, numbers are not even out yet. But anyway:

A) If PS4 is first in revenue there is no way PS4 is that much under Switch, same goes for XB1. That said, you should look at the gap but numbers in general, so far i don't think my numbers will be much off, probabily just add a few 20-30k to PS4/XB1, and Switch could be right.

2) Yes Switch will still get way more than 40% marketshare. (just to be clear, to me 45% is already way more, because 5% of +10 million units hardware is +500K units. I expected something between 45 and 50% marketshare, probabily closer to 45%)

1. So, the gap isn't that much but still around 80k between the PS4 and Switch? That's interesting.

2. I wouldn't say 5% more is MUCH bigger than 40%.



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quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

You'll see soon.

i just don't believe ps4/xb1 sold that much, switch was close to those consoles, no way they both did more then 190k for 4 weeks. we also know ps4 didn't have it's best January.

We know? Didn't follow all thread because i woke up just 3 hours ago. If so PS4 did less than 271k.

In any case, we know PS4 / Switch / XB1 in revenue are basically there, but difference in sales can still be high, because:

1) PS4 was selling for 299$ (same Switch price) all month, and there is the Pro at 399$, with the Monster Hunter Bundle selling at $449.
2) XB1 has the Xbox one X which cost 499$

Would not surprise me if between Switch and XB1 there is a 100k difference, but probabily 70k or so seem more accurate. And yes, that's a good month for XB1.

Lawlight said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

I don't get why you are so interesting in my January prediction, numbers are not even out yet. But anyway:

A) If PS4 is first in revenue there is no way PS4 is that much under Switch, same goes for XB1. That said, you should look at the gap but numbers in general, so far i don't think my numbers will be much off, probabily just add a few 20-30k to PS4/XB1, and Switch could be right.

2) Yes Switch will still get way more than 40% marketshare. (just to be clear, to me 45% is already way more, because 5% of +10 million units hardware is +500K units. I expected something between 45 and 50% marketshare, probabily closer to 45%)

1. So, the gap isn't that much but still around 80k between the PS4 and Switch? That's interesting.

2. I wouldn't say 5% more is MUCH bigger than 40%.

1) I'm saying that i don't think my predictions were much off. If quickrick is right and PS4 is under 271k, then my 257k prediction for PS4 should be very close. Switch most likely should be over 300k, we'll see, so maybe i was a it optimist but not that much off. I'm interested on XB1, my prediction was 188K, but looks like is easy at least 200k, probabily more like 220-240k, hard to say right now, we'll see.

2) Well, i think that's subjective. Remember that we talk about BIG numbers, so a 5% turn out be big in my opinion.



SKMBlake said:
nemo37 said:

it was confirmed that the difference between Switch (the system in first place) and the console in third-place (according to people here it is PS4, but I did not see that stated in the report) was 3%

Well for me, 350 000 of 1 million is 35% and 320 000 of 1 million is 32% and the difference between 35% and 32% is 3% so I don"t clearly get why do you think my estimations are wrong

Your estimation could be wrong because it says revenue generated wise the difference is 3% not in terms of unit sales. I'd say that all three would have been really close sales wise anyway because the Switch is more expensive than both the standard xbox one and ps4 but the xbox1x is more expensive than the both of them and we know that the Pro doesn't account for too much when it comes to the ps4 family But then again with PS4's 1 in 5 sales of the ps4 family we could say there is at least a 20% difference in sales regarding switch and ps4 and that could account for how they were basically equal in Revenue and then the xbox family could be a distant third and still almost be equal in Revenue because of its higher price. It's so hard to really guess some proper numbers with revenue so close between all three at 3% though.



Ryng_Tolu said:
quickrick said:

i just don't believe ps4/xb1 sold that much, switch was close to those consoles, no way they both did more then 190k for 4 weeks. we also know ps4 didn't have it's best January.

We know? Didn't follow all thread because i woke up just 3 hours ago. If so PS4 did less than 271k.

In any case, we know PS4 / Switch / XB1 in revenue are basically there, but difference in sales can still be high, because:

1) PS4 was selling for 299$ (same Switch price) all month, and there is the Pro at 399$, with the Monster Hunter Bundle selling at $449.
2) XB1 has the Xbox one X which cost 499$

Would not surprise me if between Switch and XB1 there is a 100k difference, but probabily 70k or so seem more accurate. And yes, that's a good month for XB1.

Lawlight said:

1. So, the gap isn't that much but still around 80k between the PS4 and Switch? That's interesting.

2. I wouldn't say 5% more is MUCH bigger than 40%.

1) I'm saying that i don't think my predictions were much off. If quickrick is right and PS4 is under 271k, then my 257k prediction for PS4 should be very close. Switch most likely should be over 300k, we'll see, so maybe i was a it optimist but not that much off. I'm interested on XB1, my prediction was 188K, but looks like is easy at least 200k, probabily more like 220-240k, hard to say right now, we'll see.

2) Well, i think that's subjective. Remember that we talk about BIG numbers, so a 5% turn out be big in my opinion.

well i only say ps4 is below 271k because it was mentioned in npd xbox had its best January, if ps4 had it's best jan it would have been mentioned  as well, as for 70k, that seems way to high according so someone here who said ps4 sold 93% of switch sales if if you add up pro sales as being 20%.



quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

December NPD 2011 - 1.606.000 3DS sold

 

There you go.

we have no idea what switch did, nintedo could have shipped 200k super nes mini, its still sold out. i believe if it was a 4 week period it would be 180-200k. 

I doubt very seriously Nintendo shipped anywhere close to that many of the super nes classic. Probably closer to the 15k-30k range most likely as that thing is always out of stock. 

Besides, if they did ship “200k”, that means all plaforms sold approximately 200k a piece when that’s obviously not true. 3DS had it’s best January since 2013 and switch being #1 destroys your super nes theory. 



Do we have any numbers for HW?