I think you are seriously overestimating the value of "more power" in a console.

At this stage in the generation.... cost is more important than power. Just look at the Ps4 vs PS4pro sales if you don't believe me. Unless you really think the people that don't or wouldn't buy an XB1s at $199/$249 will suddenly go and buy it at $499.

The same people that called 2.3 times the power for 100,- dollars more ‘not worth it’ are now saying 150,- more are now worth it for 1.4 times the power. Ironic isn’t it?!

Everyone on PS4 bought nothing but multiplatform games and only bought the PS4 because that is what their friends have. Just look at the top NPD games. Xbox one x probably sold over a million at 500 dollars. Not to mention when PS5 comes out, the xbox one x will be the cheapest way to play all the new games since PS5 is coming out in 2020 more than likely. Xbox one x will end up being a great console for budget gamers.

PS4 pro can't even do native 4k or dynamic 4k for a lot of games. And it isn't just 4k resolution, but the 4k textures we are getting with our games now which makes a huge difference. Shadow of Mordor and ghost recon wild land show how much difference these 4k textures/higher textures can cause.

Well, you are forgetting two things:

1) PS4 has great third party support as well. So it has the best of both worlds. Plus, during four years it had been the most powerful console available (and for a period of time was the cheapest option as well).  Besides, looking at the top 20 best selling games on the PS4, there are only 3 first party games over there.  So I would say that they are just a small part of the equation.

2) The Switch has the portability factor going for it.  Besides, the Switch is already shaping up to have the best 3rd party support for a Nintendo console in a long time.

So I think a more fair comparision about "1st vs 3rd party power" would be X1 vs Wii U.  I mean they both released closer to each other and they both carried really heavy badges during launch (high prices, both had gimmicks that never added anything worthwhile, really pad PR, etc)

Now, as you must remember the Wii U had a fairly great 1st party support and a horrible 3rd party one.  While the X1 has had a pretty good 3rd party support and a...  not so stellar 1st party one.  Now you do the math.

Now, I'm not saying that the X1X is gonna work wonders. In fact, I dont think it will sell more than 10m in the long run. I'm just saying that there is a market for it. 

No. I do not think that people that don't or wouldn't buy an XB1s at $199/$249 would suddenly go and buy it at $499.

What I do believe is that the X1 early adopters are gonna be a lot more willing to upgrade than the PS4 early adopters.

Think about it. These people paid $500 for a console that THEY KNEW was underpowered compared to the competition.

I think this proves two things: 1) That these people are really loyal to the Xbox brand and love its content, and 2) Money is not an issue to them.

And that is without mentioning that the jump from base X1 to X1X is a lot higher than the jump from base PS4 to PS4 pro. So yes, I think A LOT more people are gonna go for the upgrade on the MS camp.

We can't tell for the moment but it will definetly succeed, why ?
1- this generation is going to last way more than expected due to the slowing down of the moore's law, it's not sony or microsoft who decide the year of the next generation, they need new technologies in terms of transistor fabrication node, considering the X and the pro are 14 nm, we will need like 5 nm to build systems that may make the X and the Pro look old gens
2- a long lasting generation will benefit for microsoft, since products ranges should evolve from a marketing perspective, so we may see a discontinuation of the slim and the one s and the emergence of new product like "One X elite 2TB", "PS4 Pro 2TB with a 4K bluray drive", when this happen microsoft will just need to keep its price closer to sony and they will sell well (I'm not saying they are going to outsell them but a powerful machine that has the same price as a weaker machine definetly has a strong selling point for many gamers)

Some of you argue that exclusives will cause the failure of the X, but come on this is a subjective argument, most of people play multiplats and I can't see any playstation exclusive among wikipedia's all time best selling video games apart from Gran turismo 2 that is ranked 50, the list is full of nintendo's exclusives but despite that the wii u was a flop, despite having nintendo's juicy games, it's not exclusives that make console a thing, it is for some people but most of us don't care, I bought the PS4 back in 2014 and I don't have a single PS exclusive, for many people specs/price ratio is the most if not the only thing that matters, it matters for rational gamers who don't worship corporate monsters

This gen will be way less boring than the previous one

Nah the PS5 is not coming in 2020, it's very unlikely and sony never decides when to upgrade, sony does not manufacture GPUs, and GPUs makers have been struggling these years to maintain the moore's pace, so I don't think we'd see another playstation until 2022

I can bet you that like 5 of thouse spots are call of duty. How about we see a top 10 of every year and tell me how the picture looks. That will tell you what sells a console on that year.