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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Adobe Digital Insights: Nintendo Switch the top selling online product of Black Friday and Cyber Monday in US

Goodnightmoon said:
Lauster said:

But yet it seems they have been still wrong for the 2 past BF.

That's the feeling I got from previous threads about Adobe during BF, maybe I don't remember every details.

Show us the proof that they were wrong

First, I put in bold in my previous message what you clearly didn't take into account. I didn't claim to give facts, just my feelings from previous discussions about Adobe in vgc. I can't find those topics because of the search tool that don't allow me to get topics older than 90 days. Maybe those who made these topics on Adobe years ago made the same mistake as Miyamotoo at the beginning by not saying it was only about online sales, and so gave me a false perception. I don't remember.

Nevertheless, I am not saying that they are necessarily wrong (even Pachter could be right ~.^ ), but it remains very questionable, even more so when they announce that the day before thanksgiving PSVR was higher than PS4 whereas other charts say the contrary (I think about amazon). Furthermore, "Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data".

 

Second, someone has already posted links, but you don't seem to want to consider his answer.

Insidb said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Link?

He's referring to this, but they may have edited the title: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151127005410/en/Adobe-Data-Shows-Top-Sellers-Black-Friday

If you look at this thread, it appears the name was edited later: http://67.227.255.239/forum/showthread.php?t=1147169&page=4

Last edited by Lauster - on 29 November 2017

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Lauster said:
Goodnightmoon said:

Show us the proof that they were wrong

First, I put in bold in my previous message what you clearly didn't take into account. I didn't claim to give facts, just my feelings from previous discussions about Adobe in vgc. I can't find those topics because of the search tool that don't allow me to get topics older than 90 days. Maybe those who made these topics on Adobe years ago made the same mistake as Miyamotoo at the beginning by not saying it was only about online sales, and so gave me a false perception. I don't remember.

Nevertheless, I am not saying that they are necessarily wrong (even Pachter could be right ~.^ ), but it remains very questionable, even more so when they announce that the day before thanksgiving PSVR was higher than PS4 whereas other charts say the contrary (I think about amazon). Furthermore, "Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data".

 

Second, someone has already posted links, but you don't seem to want to consider his answer.

Insidb said:

He's referring to this, but they may have edited the title: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151127005410/en/Adobe-Data-Shows-Top-Sellers-Black-Friday

If you look at this thread, it appears the name was edited later: http://67.227.255.239/forum/showthread.php?t=1147169&page=4

Because it seems like you don't understand what ADI does, its supposed to represent an 80% of digital sales on the US, just because another console ends up winning Black friday as a whole doesn't mean ADI data was wrong.

That link onlly tells me that XBO was one of the 5 best selling products in a sample that represents the 80% of digital sales, just because Ps4 (which was also on the top 5) won the BF doesn't mean the data was wrong, so the "but you don't seem to want to consider his answer" part is a bullshit, he didn't gave me any satisfactory answer to beggin with.

Last edited by Goodnightmoon - on 29 November 2017

Goodnightmoon said:

Because it seems like you don't understand what ADI does, its supposed to represent an 80% of digital sales on the US, just because another console ends up winning Black friday as a whole doesn't mean ADI data was wrong.

That link onlly tells me that XBO was one of the 5 best selling products in a sample that represents the 80% of digital sales, just because Ps4 (which was also on the top 5) won the BF doesn't mean the data was wrong, so the "but you don't seem to want to consider his answer" part is a bullshit, he didn't gave me any satisfactory answer to beggin with.

I highly recommend you look at their 11/21 estimates: they are WAY out of line with what was observed on Amazon and is expected.

It's very possible that it's a methodology issue, but we simply don't have access to their modeling to know what it might be.



During The wii and ds period Nintendo won the Holliday’s during their heydays. This is not surprising seeing switch winning ndp for months at a time. Sony controls Europe Nintendo owns japan and North America



mhsillen said:
During The wii and ds period Nintendo won the Holliday’s during their heydays. This is not surprising seeing switch winning ndp for months at a time. Sony controls Europe Nintendo owns japan and North America

I don't think we can really say anyone "owns" NA yet. The Switch has been the market leader there for the last few months (ignoring November, which overall still seems to be up in the air), but it's been a relatively modest lead. We've seen a similar story between Sony and MS for much of this generation. Sony have had the lead, but it's never been a big one.



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Lauster said:
Miyamotoo said:

They cant be compared, Adobe measures of 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers, and based on that they gave their predictions, Patcher don't measure anything. :) Also it need to be mentioned that Adobe measures only online sales not retail sales.

But yet it seems they have been still wrong for the 2 past BF.

That's the feeling I got from previous threads about Adobe during BF, maybe I don't remember every details.

I think people are saying that they didn't correctly guess who won Black Friday as a whole... which of course Adobe isn't even attempting to do. They are simply making a strong prediction on who won online sales for Black Friday. 

As for Cyber Monday... that IS only online sales, so we can predict at least that one is correct.



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Zekkyou said:
mhsillen said:
During The wii and ds period Nintendo won the Holliday’s during their heydays. This is not surprising seeing switch winning ndp for months at a time. Sony controls Europe Nintendo owns japan and North America

I don't think we can really say anyone "owns" NA yet. The Switch has been the market leader there for the last few months (ignoring November, which overall still seems to be up in the air), but it's been a relatively modest lead. We've seen a similar story between Sony and MS for much of this generation. Sony have had the lead, but it's never been a big one.

It almost doubled PS4 in north america according to the front page.  I think this will happen during the holidays but imho



mhsillen said:
Zekkyou said:

I don't think we can really say anyone "owns" NA yet. The Switch has been the market leader there for the last few months (ignoring November, which overall still seems to be up in the air), but it's been a relatively modest lead. We've seen a similar story between Sony and MS for much of this generation. Sony have had the lead, but it's never been a big one.

It almost doubled PS4 in north america according to the front page.  I think this will happen during the holidays but imho

That was one week, though: SMO week.

I think they've otherwise been very close.



mhsillen said:
Zekkyou said:

I don't think we can really say anyone "owns" NA yet. The Switch has been the market leader there for the last few months (ignoring November, which overall still seems to be up in the air), but it's been a relatively modest lead. We've seen a similar story between Sony and MS for much of this generation. Sony have had the lead, but it's never been a big one.

It almost doubled PS4 in north america according to the front page.  I think this will happen during the holidays but imho

That was just for the latest week VGC have tracked, which was SMO's launch week (it saw a significant bump in every region). In general the Switch's NA weekly lead has varied from decent to nonexistent. You might be right and it'll go on to stomp the competition during the holidays, but so far that's not happened.