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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
zorg1000 on 10 December 2019
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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curl-6 on 10 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.



zorg1000 on 10 December 2019
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.

Individually they werent but combined they were always more popular and my numbers are including both.

If both combined could only do 14 million after PS4/XB1 released than it's unlikely that PS4 alone will do that much when PS5/XB2 release.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 11 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

I would say it depends on the circumstances

PS2's legs were so long for 2 reasons: PS3's launch price tag and Singstar. I know lots of people who only bought a PS2 for Singstar or similar games like Buzzer that wouldn't touch any other "real" game with a 10 foot pole. The fact that the PS3 was so overly expensive certainly did help the PS2 a while longer to sell well.

PS4, on the other hand, was considered vastly better yet not vastly more expensive, so of course the change happened quickly. The fact that the great games of the PS360 era got almost all remastered for the new consoles didn't make those any favors, either.

This leaves us with a mixed bag for the next gen: From a price perspective, we'll get closer to a PS3 price than a PS4 price, which could have been in favor of PS4/XBO sales at the beginning. However, the fact that both will most likely be backwards compatible also kills somewhat the point of buying a console of this gen instead of waiting until you can afford the next gen.

What I expect is that the sales of the next gen outside of the launch holiday will slow down (compared to this gen) due to the pricetags but then pick up the pace in year 2 and 3 when they got a bit cheaper and more affordable. By that point the old gen will be pretty much dead, as they lost all their selling points.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

thismeintiel on 11 December 2019
Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

Yea, his reasoning is very suspect on that topic. He's mainly looking at increases in sales. But, price cuts late in the gen aren't about increasing sales. It's about slowing the decline. If DS and PS2 hadn't dropped below $100, basically dropping into impulse buy territory, there's no way they would have made it to 150M and beyond.



 

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thismeintiel on 11 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.

PS3/360 were in that price point but were not huge hits for low income families after PS4/XB1 released

PS3+360 sales

2013 holiday-~4.3m

2014-~6.2m

2015-~2.3m

2016-~900k

2017-~250k

Combined they did ~14 million after the launch of PS4/XB1 with official prices of $199 and BF discounts down to $99 for 360 and $149 for PS3.

The days of crazy post-successor legs like PS1/PS2 had are over.

That's just because their successors launched a year later than previous gens. The same will happen with the PS4. Though, 14M is doable if the PS4 hits $199. It'll most likely be at 115M-118M by the time the PS5 launches. That would mean it would hit 129M-131M.



 

Barkley on 11 December 2019
RolStoppable said:

and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.

Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.

Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?



DonFerrari on 11 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

"Support" doesn't necessarily mean "not replace" though; 3DS has replaced after 6 years but still got support in 2017 and 2018 after the release of the Switch.

The statement was in the context of replacement and has been repeated in a Q&A session with investors. Nintendo must have realized how foolish it was to cut the lifecycles of the DS and Wii short.

Beyond that, the launch dates that get commonly thrown around for the Switch successor don't make sense for two other reasons:

1. Switch is much more successful than the 3DS, and the 3DS had a full six years before it got replaced.

2. Console manufacturers target the holiday season for launch dates because it results in two strong months out of the gate instead of only one followed by  a steep dropoff.

That's why spring 2023, 2022 as a whole and the utterly ridiculous 2021 are too early. Holidays 2023 onwards is much more sensible for the launch date of the Switch successor. The only argument that is ever made for those early launches is processing power, but anyone who thinks a minute or two about the importance of processing power (or rather the lack thereof) should realize how wrong that line of thinking is.

The only way a Switch replacement would come in 2021 is if sales plummeted (isn't the case) or if there is a revolutionary new gen of HW that would improve it while keeping portability and increasing battery life (not likely), so yes, 2023 is more likely.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 11 December 2019
Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:

and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.

Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.

Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?

Console manufacturers would rather launch earlier than later, and also have a holiday release than a non-holiday.

So the most likely outcome was that they wanted 2016 holiday but small delay in production (maybe also linked to the price of semi-conductors) led to March 2017.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

curl-6 on 11 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.

Individually they werent but combined they were always more popular and my numbers are including both.

If both combined could only do 14 million after PS4/XB1 released than it's unlikely that PS4 alone will do that much when PS5/XB2 release.

I just can't see the PS4 dropping off that fast unless they are super stubborn with pricing and never drop it to $200 or less. It's looking likely PS5 will be a $500 box, which leaves a lot of room for a cheap entry-level alternative in its first couple years.