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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
VideoGameAccountant said:
PAOerfulone said:

Still doesn't change the fact that the Wii (100 million units sold, best selling Nintendo console) and DS (154 million units sold and 2nd best selling video game system ever) was, by far, the most profitable period in Nintendo's history, under his watch. Even if it was followed by their worst earnings in history, it barely put a dent into their overall savings and earnings they gained from the prior generation. And it only lasted for around 3 fiscal years before they were making profits again. Now they've made back all the money they lost and THEN some.

And the 3DS struggling to reach the GBA's levels of has a lot more to do with circumstances that were beyond Iwata and Nintendo's control. The rise of the smart phone/mobile game market that exploded in the early 2010s evaporated the handheld market incredibly. We went from ~235 million DS and PSP units to just ~92 million 3DS and Vita units. A whopping 143 million units *snaps fingers* gone, just like that. And even if the 3DS got off to a bad start, it eventually became profitable and did respectably well.  And as for the Pokemon Company. Created the structure of the Pokemon Company which lost the company billions in potential profits? Dude, you're seriously going to ignore or forget about Pokemon GO? He was one of the key people behind that. Which has led to Game Freak and the Pokemon Company making the most money they have made since the late 90s when Pokemon was on top of the world. 

And I can't help but notice you didn't address Liquid's point about the Switch. That's Iwata. He served as the head developer up until he died. It was his last project, basically. https://kotaku.com/satoru-iwata-put-lots-of-thought-into-the-nintendo-swit-1792378208

And look at what the Switch is doing now. 

So, he's got 4 home runs, (Wii, DS, Switch, and Pokemon GO), a single (3DS), and one strikeout (Wii U). I'm not sure how familiar you are with baseball, but that's a 5 for 6 night, with 4 HR's and batting .833. You know how many baseball players would kill to have a night like that? 

To call him a terrible business strategist is just completely absurd and straight up delusional. The facts and the history just proves you wrong. He had one failure, one "meh" average project, and four winners under his belt. The fact of the matter is, Nintendo was/is in a much bigger and better position during & post-Iwata than they were pre-Iwata.

First, giving Iwata credit for the Switch is disingenuous. Iwata died in July of 2015 and the Switch came out in March 2017, a year and a 3/4th later. Essentially, Iwata had little to do with the console. Moreso, the only game on the Switch Iwata is credited for is Breath of the Wild. Every other title was made after his death. And even then. Breath of the Wild likely went through many changes afterwards as the game was originally slated for Holiday 2015. Kimishima was the president who marketed the switch, oversaw its launch and was the sole Executive Director on all the Nintendo Switch titles save Breath of the Wild. The Switch is a Kimishima success. Not an Iwata. 

To say the 3DS failed because of smartphones is also silly. The system failed because it had no titles at launch and had a 3D gimmick which increased the cost of the system and sacrificed battery life. This is why they had to cut the price from $250 to $180 because the system was doing so bad. What you don't consider is the importance of Nintendo's handheld line. Even with the Gamecube doing poorly, the GBA kept Nintendo going. The system sold 80 million over 4 years. The 3DS sold about 70 million over it's 7 years. This is in addition to the Wii U which sold worse than the Gamecube. Iwata put Nintendo into a dire situation that it didn't need to be. You gloss over that period of time and say "Awww they made the money back," but ignore that Iwata dug a huge hole for Nintendo that, essentially, Kimishima got them out of.

And what I think this comes back to my first point on the Switch. You want to give all the credit to Iwata because he came up with the idea (maybe), but you forget execution. The DS and Wii were killed far earlier than they ever needed to because Iwata thought "We have to have a six year lifespan" when Nintendo clearly needed another year to get the systems ready (remember the awful droughts that pledged both systems?). The beauty of the Switch was Nintendo made sure there wasn't a drought, and we had games after game every 2 months or so. Theres no saying Iwata would have pulled that off, and he may have easily just released too early and lead to similar droughts. 

Last, on Pokemon, you don't understand what youre talking about. Nintendo now only owns 33% of Pokemon. In fact, one thing that hurt Nintendo's stock rally with Go was investors realized Nintendo only gets 33%. If Iwata was not an idiot, he would have bought out Gamefreak and made The Pokemon Company a wholly owned subsidiary of Nintendo to manage the licensing. Now you have your cake and eat it too. While there would have been more upfront cost, Pokemon has made billions and now Nintendo would have gotten the other 66% of the games. Iwata left billions on the table because he didn't know how to structure the deal. 

I think the issue is you all want to give Iwata credit where credit isn't due while simultaneously ignoring his faults. 

We are talking about strategy here.  Strategy is about planning things out in the future.  That is why Iwata had nothing to do with Gamecube's strategy even though he became CEO while Gamecube was on the market.  It was already too late to make an overall strategy at that point.  On the other hand Iwata put a lot of focus and energy into consolidating all of Nintendo's software development onto one system.  The Switch was first and foremost his strategy.

Also, you said in a previous post that Iwata was a bad strategist, because he got his ideas from books.  What kind of weird logic is this?  Reading books on strategy makes one a better strategist, not a worse one.

Lastly, you are starting to turn the argument from strategy to execution.  Perhaps he isn't the best at execution?  But when he comes to gaming strategy he is unparalleled.  The DS, Wii and Switch were all big risks, because they were so different from what came before.  They were successful because the fundamental strategy behind these systems is solid.  And none of these systems would have existed if Iwata wasn't the CEO.



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curl-6 said:

I feel like due to its much greater sales and popularity PS4 will not drop off as fast as PS3 did. It's also made of more off-the-shelf parts so it could go to lower prices than PS3 ever did like $199.

PS4 is already declining at a faster rate than PS3 though.

PS3

2011 (Year 5), +6%

2012 (Year 6), -15%

2013 (Year 7), -31%

PS4

2018 (Year 5), -8%

2019 (Year 6), -23%

2020 (Year 7), ????

It has been over 3 years since the last permanent price drop and they have gone with the same $199 price point for 3 black fridays in a row, Sony has no desire to go lower in price. At most we will get a $149 firesale when it's getting phased out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I feel like due to its much greater sales and popularity PS4 will not drop off as fast as PS3 did. It's also made of more off-the-shelf parts so it could go to lower prices than PS3 ever did like $199.

PS4 is already declining at a faster rate than PS3 though.

PS3

2011 (Year 5), +6%

2012 (Year 6), -15%

2013 (Year 7), -31%

PS4

2018 (Year 5), -8%

2019 (Year 6), -23%

2020 (Year 7), ????

It has been over 3 years since the last permanent price drop and they have gone with the same $199 price point for 3 black fridays in a row, Sony has no desire to go lower in price. At most we will get a $149 firesale when it's getting phased out.

They may not have a desire to cut the price now while it's still selling very well, but next year or beyond will be a different story I imagine.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

PS4 is already declining at a faster rate than PS3 though.

PS3

2011 (Year 5), +6%

2012 (Year 6), -15%

2013 (Year 7), -31%

PS4

2018 (Year 5), -8%

2019 (Year 6), -23%

2020 (Year 7), ????

It has been over 3 years since the last permanent price drop and they have gone with the same $199 price point for 3 black fridays in a row, Sony has no desire to go lower in price. At most we will get a $149 firesale when it's getting phased out.

They may not have a desire to cut the price now while it's still selling very well, but next year or beyond will be a different story I imagine.

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.



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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I feel like due to its much greater sales and popularity PS4 will not drop off as fast as PS3 did. It's also made of more off-the-shelf parts so it could go to lower prices than PS3 ever did like $199.

PS4 is already declining at a faster rate than PS3 though.

PS3

2011 (Year 5), +6%

2012 (Year 6), -15%

2013 (Year 7), -31%

PS4

2018 (Year 5), -8%

2019 (Year 6), -23%

2020 (Year 7), ????

It has been over 3 years since the last permanent price drop and they have gone with the same $199 price point for 3 black fridays in a row, Sony has no desire to go lower in price. At most we will get a $149 firesale when it's getting phased out.

I agree with what you are saying, and I want to add that PS4 sales are fairly normal.  The PS3 sales trajectory was unusual, because it didn't have many early adopters.  It launched too expensive and a lot of people bought the cheaper Wii at first.  Then they bought a PS3 or XB360 a few years later when the prices dropped enough.

PS4 launched at a reasonable price, and so it should have had its successor launch after 6 years like the PS1 and PS2.  I also agree that it might not get much of a price cut if any, at least not until the PS5 launches.  Sony will probably sell a few more PS4's if they cut the price, but that doesn't mean they will increase profitability.  I think they are more likely to keep prices up just to keep profits up.



Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

But it's not only due to price point. PS2 sold a lot post-PS3 launch because Sony messed up big time with the PS3 launch. PS3 sold less post-PS4 launch because Sony got everything right with the PS4 launch.



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TruckOSaurus said:
Barkley said:

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

But it's not only due to price point. PS2 sold a lot post-PS3 launch because Sony messed up big time with the PS3 launch. PS3 sold less post-PS4 launch because Sony got everything right with the PS4 launch.

Yes that's true, it's not just price point and the relative performance of the PS3 would have helped PS2 as well as hinder it's own legs, but price clearly plays a big role. If the price difference between the last-gen and next-gen system is too low, people aren't going to bother picking up the older console over the newer one. The only reason to get the older console is to save money. In the case of the PS3 the last official RRP of $269 vs $399 just wasn't enough of a saving for the system to keep selling.

So the PS4 getting an official price cut in the future to $199 or even $149 would vastly help it's performance post-ps5. $199 vs $499 is enough of a difference for people to still pick up a PS4.



Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I don't agree with that at all, permanent price cuts seems to be exactly what affects how well a system does with a successor. After all, who would buy a $269 PS3 when they could get a $399 PS4? The price difference wasn't enough for the PS3 to keep selling.

PS1 shipped another 29m units after the PS2 launched, it's last price cut was to $49 in May 2002.

PS2 shipped another 48m units after the PS3 launched, it's last price cut was to $99 in April 2009.

PS3 shipped just 7m units after the PS4 launched, it's last price cut was to $269 when the super slim launched in September 2012.

PS3 price didn't go low enough and didn't get a cut after the PS4 and thus it had terrible legs post-successor compared to previous PlayStation systems.

A PS4 that gets an official cut to $199 will sell a LOT more after the PS5 is released, then a $299 PS4 will.

A huge chunk of those post-successor sales of PS1 & PS2 came from emerging markets which have grown significantly since then and can buy consoles sooner.

Also PS3 final price cut was to $199 in 2013

https://www.digitalspy.com/videogames/gamescom/a508489/gamescom-2013-playstation-3-price-drop-announced-by-sony/



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

They may not have a desire to cut the price now while it's still selling very well, but next year or beyond will be a different story I imagine.

Shadow1980 has done a pretty good write up in the past explaining how price cuts late in a systems life dont have any long term affects.

PS3/360 had some pretty crazy good deals in 2013 but it didnt stop them from having 30-40% YoY declines.

I dunno, like Barkley says, if PS5 launches at $500, I can see a $200-$150 PS4 remaining an attractive buy for low income consumers for years to come.