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PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 18 6.69%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 59 21.93%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 70 26.02%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 115 42.75%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 7 2.60%
 
Total:269

That's the other thing; price. PS5/Scarlett are looking like they could be $500 USD, while Switch by then or in 2021 could be $250 for the standard and $150 for the Lite. 



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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Not sure you're gonna be getting that. A person who spends possibly $499 on a PS5 lets say + $60 for an extra DS5 + actual games for that PS5 + PSN network cost ... is gonna be kinda tapped out. 

But I think Switch 2 happens around March 2022 anyway so it'll be part of the natural downcycle of the product cycle for Nintendo anyway. 

Yeah they will be tapped out when they first buy the console, not necessarily in the months/years following that. The PS/XB gamers who bought Switch in 2017-2019 to play games like BotW, Odyssey & Xenoblade 2 will most likely pick up games like BotW 2, Odyssey 2, Prime 4 & Bayo 3 in 2020-2022.

No way does Switch 2 come out in March 2022, they have talked multiple times about wanting a longer console cycle and if 3DS got 6 years than Switch getting 5 makes no sense.

I think the OG Switch will continue to supported for several years past that, similar to 3DS but even moreso. But the big difference is Switch 1 titles will play on Switch 2 and probably they can do stuff like have higher resolution without much fuss. 

Switch 2 is probably gonna cost $350 at launch (this is a premium profit margin for Nintendo), so Switch OG + Switch Lite will serve the budget market for several more years. Switch Lite at like $169.99 ... no way is Switch 2 getting into that price range for *years*, so it has a valuable place in the market place. 

So original Switch is not going anywhere, could see it stocked on storeshelves well into 2025 if I had to bet. They are not going to want to budget on the premium price point for the newer model Switch because it's very lucrative. Everyone yells at Sony/Nintendo for not cutting hardware prices, but the reason is they simply make more money keeping a higher priced premium SKU. 

This will let Nintendo basically have their cake and eat it too ... they get the long cycle for the OG Switch but also get the increased business that a fresh business cycle brings them and because Switch 1 games should be able to run on Switch 2, there's not even a problem of separated libraries that way. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 03 December 2019

Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

Yeah they will be tapped out when they first buy the console, not necessarily in the months/years following that. The PS/XB gamers who bought Switch in 2017-2019 to play games like BotW, Odyssey & Xenoblade 2 will most likely pick up games like BotW 2, Odyssey 2, Prime 4 & Bayo 3 in 2020-2022.

No way does Switch 2 come out in March 2022, they have talked multiple times about wanting a longer console cycle and if 3DS got 6 years than Switch getting 5 makes no sense.

I think the OG Switch will continue to supported for several years past that, similar to 3DS but even moreso. But the big difference is Switch 1 titles will play on Switch 2 and probably they can do stuff like have higher resolution without much fuss. 

Switch 2 is probably gonna cost $350 at launch (this is a premium profit margin for Nintendo), so Switch OG + Switch Lite will serve the budget market for several more years. Switch Lite at like $169.99 ... no way is Switch 2 getting into that price range for *years*, so it has a valuable place in the market place. 

So original Switch is not going anywhere, could see it stocked on storeshelves well into 2025 if I had to bet. They are not going to want to budget on the premium price point for the newer model Switch because it's very lucrative. Everyone yells at Sony/Nintendo for not cutting hardware prices, but the reason is they simply make more money keeping a higher priced premium SKU. 

This will let Nintendo basically have their cake and eat it too ... they get the long cycle for the OG Switch but also get the increased business that a fresh business cycle brings them and because Switch 1 games should be able to run on Switch 2, there's not even a problem of separated libraries that way. 

Overall I agree with most of what you're saying but I still feel like 5 years is too soon.

I'm guessing March 2023 giving it 6 years with 2 years of support after that, similar to 3DS.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont think Nintendo cares if people play on other consoles, with the tie ratio of pretty much every console being under 12 than as long as these people buy like 2 games per year than Nintendo is fine.

Not sure you're gonna be getting that. A person who spends possibly $499 on a PS5 lets say + $60 for an extra DS5 + actual games for that PS5 + PSN network cost ... is gonna be kinda tapped out. 

But I think Switch 2 happens around March 2022 anyway so it'll be part of the natural downcycle of the product cycle for Nintendo anyway. 

I'd guess March 2023 since Nintendo has said that they want to support the Switch for a longer period than they usually do for consoles.  Plus, they kind of have to go with March 2023 since most of their EPD teams are due to release games in either 2020 or 2021.



zorg1000 said:

Yep and not only that but AAA games in early 2017 like For Honor, Horizon Zero Dawn, Mass Effect Andromeda & Ghost Recon Wildlands were supposed to make Switch and BotW only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans.

[citation needed]

Can you show us some posts which claimed that Zelda BotW wouldn't be a big thing? That it doesn't have mass appeal, only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans and will sell bad?

I can only remember the drama of some WiiU fans who were pissed that Nintendo didn't limit its sales on a dead system as an Wii U exclusive. How could Nintendo betray their most faithful fanbase and dare to release it also on their new system!



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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

I think the OG Switch will continue to supported for several years past that, similar to 3DS but even moreso. But the big difference is Switch 1 titles will play on Switch 2 and probably they can do stuff like have higher resolution without much fuss. 

Switch 2 is probably gonna cost $350 at launch (this is a premium profit margin for Nintendo), so Switch OG + Switch Lite will serve the budget market for several more years. Switch Lite at like $169.99 ... no way is Switch 2 getting into that price range for *years*, so it has a valuable place in the market place. 

So original Switch is not going anywhere, could see it stocked on storeshelves well into 2025 if I had to bet. They are not going to want to budget on the premium price point for the newer model Switch because it's very lucrative. Everyone yells at Sony/Nintendo for not cutting hardware prices, but the reason is they simply make more money keeping a higher priced premium SKU. 

This will let Nintendo basically have their cake and eat it too ... they get the long cycle for the OG Switch but also get the increased business that a fresh business cycle brings them and because Switch 1 games should be able to run on Switch 2, there's not even a problem of separated libraries that way. 

Overall I agree with most of what you're saying but I still feel like 5 years is too soon.

I'm guessing March 2023 giving it 6 years with 2 years of support after that, similar to 3DS.

Yeah 2023 sounds about right; give it 6 years before replacement, 5 would be cutting it too short for such a successful system. 



Conina said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep and not only that but AAA games in early 2017 like For Honor, Horizon Zero Dawn, Mass Effect Andromeda & Ghost Recon Wildlands were supposed to make Switch and BotW only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans.

[citation needed]

Can you show us some posts which claimed that Zelda BotW wouldn't be a big thing? That it doesn't have mass appeal, only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans and will sell bad?

I can only remember the drama of some WiiU fans who were pissed that Nintendo didn't limit its sales on a dead system as an Wii U exclusive. How could Nintendo betray their most faithful fanbase and dare to release it also on their new system!

I'm not going to look up posts from 3 years ago but I do remember reading it from a few users.

It obviously wasn't the general consensus, just trolls and the vocal minority.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Overall I agree with most of what you're saying but I still feel like 5 years is too soon.

I'm guessing March 2023 giving it 6 years with 2 years of support after that, similar to 3DS.

Yeah 2023 sounds about right; give it 6 years before replacement, 5 would be cutting it too short for such a successful system. 

Yeah March 2022 seems way too short. March 2023 seems reasonable. We're probably gonna be getting a second round of major titles on Switch (Mario 3D, Zelda, Pokemon) from holiday 2020 thru 2021, so Switch 2 coming out in Spring 2020 would mean none of those first year for Switch 2 and I'm pretty sure they're gonna want at least one of those on launch year after seeing how big Zelda and Mario were for having a great first year for Switch.

I also agree with a $350 Switch 2. If releasing ~2.5 years after PS5/Scarlett at a higher price point than Switch allows Switch 2 to get close enough in power to those systems to play graphically downgraded but still good versions (lower res, lower fr, some missing effects, but otherwise the same game) of next gen 3rd party games that would bring back a sector that Nintendo hasn't had in 3 consoles. Plus Switch isn't a small handheld that can be slid into a pocket, so Nintendo has proven the space for a handheld you have to carry in a case or slide into a backpack or whatever, so I could see them making a slightly larger Switch 2 at a little higher price point that can pick up good downgraded versions of all but the absolutely most intense multiplat AAA 3rd party games on PS5/Scarlett.

I expect Switch would still get minor support for holiday 2023 and then Nintendo would focus 100% on Switch 2, so I think after 2023 Switch would only sell some 5+ million, though that could still put it at 115+ million lifetime. I think PS4 will end up just over 130 million, and Switch should end up 15 or so million behind it.



Conina said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep and not only that but AAA games in early 2017 like For Honor, Horizon Zero Dawn, Mass Effect Andromeda & Ghost Recon Wildlands were supposed to make Switch and BotW only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans.

[citation needed]

Can you show us some posts which claimed that Zelda BotW wouldn't be a big thing? That it doesn't have mass appeal, only appeal to hardcore Nintendo fans and will sell bad?

I can only remember the drama of some WiiU fans who were pissed that Nintendo didn't limit its sales on a dead system as an Wii U exclusive. How could Nintendo betray their most faithful fanbase and dare to release it also on their new system!

The "soft launch" theory was a real thing back then.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224980

And here's the NeoGAF version of it:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/do-we-all-agree-that-nintendo-is-having-a-soft-launch-with-switch.1336018/

And here's a bonus. It's time to go third party:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224602



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont understand the concern, what you are saying is people who bought a PS4/XB1 from 2013-2016 and bought a NSW from 2017-2019 are going to buy a PS5/XB2 in 2020-2023, those people already own a NSW so they arent stealing sales from it.

The issue is more that they choose from 2020 onwards to spend the majority of their play time/game budget on their newer PS5/XB2 because those are the new and exciting thing.

If that was even remotely true, then the opposite would also be true, meaning that when the Switch entered the market, the other two's sales would have faltered. But instead, they had their best year in sales!

Switch, and Nintendo by extension, is a wildly different market with a different appeal to Playstation and Xbox. You can see it with the sales numbers, too: Playstation plus Xbox always add up to something around 170M per generation, but Nintendo's sales are all over the place. The reason is that Nintendo is notexactly competition to the other two, but it's very own thing. You don't buy a Nintendo console for the same stuff you buy a Playstation or an Xbox. Instead, it complements the other consoles (and/or a gaming PC), not compete with them.