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Forums - Sales Discussion - October 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

GProgrammer on 18 November 2017

That Console Sales in the USA first October graph puts things in perspective.

FACTS
1. Switch is not supply constrained in the US anymore, so its giving a good indication of demand
2. Had a massive game, Mario Odyssey
3. It sold 8 months after launch about the same as PS4 12 months after launch
4. both sold nowhere near the Wii which even still had supply constraints for many months afterwards

Based on this I doubt nintendo will sell 20 million in the next year, sure Japan will sell major numbers but enough to make up for the lack of demand elsewhere? I severely doubt it



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zorg1000 on 18 November 2017
palou said:
Slarvax said:

Seeing as the only/closest numbers we have for Odyssey's first 3 days is over 1m, I'll give you the win. Gg.

"Super Mario Odyssey drove the third highest launch month packaged software sales for a Mario Action/Adventure title in tracked history, following only New Super Mario Bros Wii and Super Mario Galaxy," explained NPD analyst Mat Piscatella.

 

Not sure how to read that, but Galaxy didn't quite do 900k, so...

Galaxy did 1.12 million in Nov 2007 but it had 20 days of tracking vs 2 for Odyssey.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

palou on 18 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
palou said:

"Super Mario Odyssey drove the third highest launch month packaged software sales for a Mario Action/Adventure title in tracked history, following only New Super Mario Bros Wii and Super Mario Galaxy," explained NPD analyst Mat Piscatella.

 

Not sure how to read that, but Galaxy didn't quite do 900k, so...

Galaxy did 1.12 million in Nov 2007 but it had 20 days of tracking vs 2 for Odyssey.

Did it? Where did you get those numbers from?



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Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

Ryng on 18 November 2017
GProgrammer said:
That Console Sales in the USA first October graph puts things in perspective.

FACTS
1. Switch is not supply constrained in the US anymore, so its giving a good indication of demand
2. Had a massive game, Mario Odyssey
3. It sold 8 months after launch about the same as PS4 12 months after launch
4. both sold nowhere near the Wii which even still had supply constraints for many months afterwards

Based on this I doubt nintendo will sell 20 million in the next year, sure Japan will sell major numbers but enough to make up for the lack of demand elsewhere? I severely doubt it

Oh man, November and December ar gonna be fun lmao



quickrick on 18 November 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
GProgrammer said:
That Console Sales in the USA first October graph puts things in perspective.

FACTS
1. Switch is not supply constrained in the US anymore, so its giving a good indication of demand
2. Had a massive game, Mario Odyssey
3. It sold 8 months after launch about the same as PS4 12 months after launch
4. both sold nowhere near the Wii which even still had supply constraints for many months afterwards

Based on this I doubt nintendo will sell 20 million in the next year, sure Japan will sell major numbers but enough to make up for the lack of demand elsewhere? I severely doubt it

Oh man, November and December ar gonna be fun lmao

i remember shaq laughing like that then being wrong, lol.



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palou on 18 November 2017
Shadow1980 said:
palou said:

Did it? Where did you get those numbers from?

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_November_2007

https://www.reuters.com/article/videogames-sales/rpt-update-2-wii-call-of-duty-top-u-s-monthly-sales-idUSN1326466420071214

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/npd-november-cooks-up-263-billion-in-game-sales/1100-6184008/


Back when we got real numbers from NPD that would find their way to Reuters of all places.

Ah, yes, that would make the info completely useless, considering the huge gap between Galaxy and Galaxy 2 numbers.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

Kai_Mao on 18 November 2017
Shadow1980 said:
palou said:

Ah, yes, that would make the info completely useless, considering the huge gap between Galaxy and Galaxy 2 numbers.

More Mario numbers for reference:

Sunshine: 350k
Galaxy 2: 564k
New SMB Wii: 1.39M
New SMB U: 243k
3D World: 215k

Mario games are more like slow-burners, gaining their impressive sales over the long haul rather than blowing their wad month-one with huge launches and then having weak legs like so many other big AAA games do. Galaxy and Odyssey had by far the best launches of any 3D Mario game, but a million copies isn't exactly record-breaking. That being said, I do think SMO has the capacity to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. SM64 and Galaxy 1 are the best-selling 3D Mario games for home consoles, and they both sold over 11 million.

I think some forget that Mario has been an evergreen title for decades. Nice first week sales, but even more impressive legs Odyssey will probably continue to sell even as years go by. Hell, why do you think games like Mario Kart and Animal Crossing keep popping up in charts, especially in Japan, every once in a while even after 1-3 years of release?



zorg1000 on 18 November 2017
Shadow1980 said:
palou said:

Ah, yes, that would make the info completely useless, considering the huge gap between Galaxy and Galaxy 2 numbers.

More Mario numbers for reference:

Sunshine: 350k
Galaxy 2: 564k
New SMB Wii: 1.39M
New SMB U: 243k
3D World: 215k

Mario games are more like slow-burners, gaining their impressive sales over the long haul rather than blowing their wad month-one with huge launches and then having weak legs like so many other big AAA games do. Galaxy and Odyssey had by far the best launches of any 3D Mario game, but a million copies isn't exactly record-breaking. That being said, I do think SMO has the capacity to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. SM64 and Galaxy 1 are the best-selling 3D Mario games for home consoles, and they both sold over 11 million.

10 million is a safe bet.

Mario 64, Galaxy, 64 DS & 3D Land each sold 11-13 million.

Im gonna go ahead and say Odyssey will be the first to hit 15 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Slarvax on 18 November 2017
palou said:
Slarvax said:

Seeing as the only/closest numbers we have for Odyssey's first 3 days is over 1m, I'll give you the win. Gg.

"Super Mario Odyssey drove the third highest launch month packaged software sales for a Mario Action/Adventure title in tracked history, following only New Super Mario Bros Wii and Super Mario Galaxy," explained NPD analyst Mat Piscatella.

Not sure how to read that, but Galaxy didn't quite do 900k, so...

That's without digital (and bundles, which also count as digital). Take the W my man



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Lawlight on 18 November 2017
Shadow1980 said:

Assuming 295k, here's how the Switch's first October stacks up to other console's first Octobers (excluding launch period Octobers for systems launching in September or October, meaning this chart uses Oct. 2001 for the PS2, etc.):


Nearly tying for third-best first October ever. Now, who was it that was saying that this was "unimpressive," hm?

I am saying that it’s unimpressive. I think a lot of us do as well - based on the predictions they made. Stick to making graphs.