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That Console Sales in the USA first October graph puts things in perspective.

FACTS
1. Switch is not supply constrained in the US anymore, so its giving a good indication of demand
2. Had a massive game, Mario Odyssey
3. It sold 8 months after launch about the same as PS4 12 months after launch
4. both sold nowhere near the Wii which even still had supply constraints for many months afterwards

Based on this I doubt nintendo will sell 20 million in the next year, sure Japan will sell major numbers but enough to make up for the lack of demand elsewhere? I severely doubt it