Do you think it’s fair to compare a system’s sales for 28 days vs a system’s sales for 9 days?

When comparing a November vs March launch?

The PS4 would have done those same numbers in March. Plus, $300 vs $400.

The PS4 I think it would have done those same numbers in March. Plus, $300 vs $400.

The XBO & PS4 benefited from launching in the holidays. The PS4 launched on Nov. 15 and the XBO on Nov. 22. A week after that was Black Friday. Not a damn thing happened a week or two after the Switch was launched, and not 5-6 weeks later, either.

While we don't get weekly sales figures from NPD, the monthly data makes it clear that launching in November helps for sales in the first 5-8 weeks. Barring supply issues (a factor with the 360, which had a poor launch), average weekly sales in December don't simply crater. They almost always remain far above non-holiday month sales in the first calendar year. Meanwhile, we have a few systems that launched in the first half of the year besides the Switch, including the 3DS, PSP, and GBA. They all dropped significantly in month two, right down to about what the baseline was on up through October.

Furthermore, Japanese data suggests rapid drops past the first week for systems released outside Q4, while November launches don't see their weekly sales drop until after Christmas/New Years week. Q1-Q2 releases like the Switch, PS4, and 3DS exhibited "hockey stick" curves for sales in the first 13 weeks, while holiday releases like the Wii U, PS3, Wii, DS, and PSP did not, exhibiting other behaviors instead (the Wii U had a "flight of steps" curve, the PS3 had a "sine wave" curve, and the others had zig-zag curves).

While it would take me a while to collect the data and make the charts to put it in pictures to give you the "daily average" for a given month, the data is pretty clear: launching during the holidays helps.

If you look at the Switch's sales from the April-September period, it's doing fine, as that Q2+Q3 chart shows. It would've done better had it not been for supply issues. It should sell well over 2M in Q4, which isn't bad, either.

As for that "first full calendar year" chart, that's the first Jan.-Dec. period for every system on the chart except for the Switch. The Switch is the first "home console" that launched in March (yeah, I know, it's a "hybrid," but let's not argue over nomenclature). Every other console back to the PS2 was a Q4 release, the DC, N64, & PS1 were September releases, and the Saturn was a May release. The Switch missed the first two months of 2017, but the launch month makes up for having only one month in Q1. It's close enough to yet far enough from the beginning of the year to where for the sake of argument we can use the Switch's 2017 as a point of comparison to the PS4 & XBO's 2014, the 360's 2006, the PS2's 2001, etc.

Do you think it’s fair to compare a system’s sales for 28 days vs a system’s sales for 9 days?

He's wrong because he's suggesting that 2M in six months isn't successful. Once you take into account the facts that the Switch launched in March instead of Q4 (which does matter), the Switch's sales are pretty good. It had the second-best launch month of any system ever in the U.S.:

And sales in Q2 & Q3 were pretty good, despite supply issues:

The Switch ought to sell at least 4.5M this year, which comparing it to other systems' first calendar year performances gives us this:

I was actually compiling data for his "daily average" argument when I realized that said average can be greatly skewed depending on what time of the month a system is released. Let's say System A gets two weeks of sales during launch month, pulling 400k in Week 1 but only 50k in Week 2. It's competitor, System B, is released exactly a week later, getting one week of sales but pulling down only 300k that one week. It does, say, 40k Week 2, but that week is part of the next sales month so it doesn't count. That gives System A an average of 32,143 units per day for launch month, but System B manages 42,857 units per day for the same month despite having worse sales. It had fully a third fewer sales for the month, but crammed those into half as many days.

For all we know, the Switch could have sold 600k its first week, with the remaining four weeks of the March sales period accounting for the remaining 310k. But spead that out over a period of 30 days, and you get only an average of about 30k/day. Meanwhile, the XBO may have pulled 600k its first week as well, but only 309k the next week (which was Black Friday week). Since the NPD doesn't track sales on a weekly basis, we don't know for sure.

TL;DR, a "daily average for the month" metric is useless for launch months.

The XBO & PS4 benefited from launching in the holidays. The PS4 launched on Nov. 15 and the XBO on Nov. 22. A week after that was Black Friday. Not a damn thing happened a week or two after the Switch was launched, and not 5-6 weeks later, either.

While we don't get weekly sales figures from NPD, the monthly data makes it clear that launching in November helps for sales in the first 5-8 weeks. Barring supply issues (a factor with the 360, which had a poor launch), average weekly sales in December don't simply crater. They almost always remain far above non-holiday month sales in the first calendar year. Meanwhile, we have a few systems that launched in the first half of the year besides the Switch, including the 3DS, PSP, and GBA. They all dropped significantly in month two, right down to about what the baseline was on up through October.

Furthermore, Japanese data suggests rapid drops past the first week for systems released outside Q4, while November launches don't see their weekly sales drop until after Christmas/New Years week. Q1-Q2 releases like the Switch, PS4, and 3DS exhibited "hockey stick" curves for sales in the first 13 weeks, while holiday releases like the Wii U, PS3, Wii, DS, and PSP did not, exhibiting other behaviors instead (the Wii U had a "flight of steps" curve, the PS3 had a "sine wave" curve, and the others had zig-zag curves).

While it would take me a while to collect the data and make the charts to put it in pictures to give you the "daily average" for a given month, the data is pretty clear: launching during the holidays helps.

If you look at the Switch's sales from the April-September period, it's doing fine, as that Q2+Q3 chart shows. It would've done better had it not been for supply issues. It should sell well over 2M in Q4, which isn't bad, either.

As for that "first full calendar year" chart, that's the first Jan.-Dec. period for every system on the chart except for the Switch. The Switch is the first "home console" that launched in March (yeah, I know, it's a "hybrid," but let's not argue over nomenclature). Every other console back to the PS2 was a Q4 release, the DC, N64, & PS1 were September releases, and the Saturn was a May release. The Switch missed the first two months of 2017, but the launch month makes up for having only one month in Q1. It's close enough to yet far enough from the beginning of the year to where for the sake of argument we can use the Switch's 2017 as a point of comparison to the PS4 & XBO's 2014, the 360's 2006, the PS2's 2001, etc.

You could say this evens out the bonus Xbox ONE and PS4 (and other consoles on the graphs) have for launching during the holiday season