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Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 88 25.66%
 
No 179 52.19%
 
Not sure 53 15.45%
 
I will not make a prediction 23 6.71%
 
Total:343

Hell yeah. Just watch the thing flying off the shelves once Pokemon arrives for it.

I am absolutely certain Switch will get to 100 million. At least.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

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While optimistic we shouldn't look at the Switch market as it is now to gauge the potential sales. In future years there could be budget Switch models with portable only mode selling less than £100 here in the UK and many other models in Nintendo's ranks. It could be you have a choice of 5-6 different models across a wide price range. Portables also get damaged/broken with use, more so than home consoles and many of the same users may make repeat purchases over the years. If you think of the Switch as a software platform representing a wide range of models across many years its future may look different.

It's fairly cheap hardware too, nothing cutting edge Nintendo have lots of options. The only real downside is Nvidia being the business partner they may screw up the success somehow applying leverage for higher royalties even on older chipsets and force Nintendo to move to a different hardware platform. Nvidia may just keep pushing for a larger slice of the pie keeping retail prices high and downsizing the possible install base.

There are other chipsets and other future competing products from Sony and other companies for hybrid consoles again these could do huge damage to Nintendo.

Also Nintendo software prices are very premium. Your money goes a lot further with android, ios, PC and PS4 which have very low pricing or heavy discounting for older games. It's another factor that will give pressure to reduce Nintendo's sales.

Lastly we are prejudging Switch demand too early. Yes there is low stock but at this point we don't even have an install base of 6 million, there could well be a slowdown.

If I was guessing now I would go with about a 60 million install base worldwide by something like 2022 but if everything went well for Nintendo I think they could as much as double that figure.



bonzobanana said:

 The only real downside is Nvidia being the business partner they may screw up the success somehow applying leverage for higher royalties even on older chipsets and force Nintendo to move to a different hardware platform. Nvidia may just keep pushing for a larger slice of the pie keeping retail prices high and downsizing the possible install base.

Also Nintendo software prices are very premium. Your money goes a lot further with android, ios, PC and PS4 which have very low pricing or heavy discounting for older games. It's another factor that will give pressure to reduce Nintendo's sales.

Lastly we are prejudging Switch demand too early. Yes there is low stock but at this point we don't even have an install base of 6 million, there could well be a slowdown.

Nvidia CEO said that relationship with Nintendo "will likely last two decades". It's obvious that Nvidia and Nintendo look at long time partnership, so in that on mind hardly that Nvidia will screw Nintendo if they relly want long time partnership. Its most likely that Nvidia will provide chips for Switch revisions and future Nintendo hardwares for few generations.

Nintendo software prices were premium even with Wii, also Nintendo does has Nintendo Selects line where they selling older games for $20.

Switch just won Avgust in US again and its still selling great in Japan, actually shipments were bigger in late July and August compared to previous months and there are still shortages, and soon Mario Odyssey and holiday season will come. So obviously, Switch sales are not slowing down and it won't be slow down anytime soon. If you look VGC numbers, 5.4m is without August and September sales. Switch with shipments in last quarter (July, August and September) will be closer to 7m than to 6m.



Nintendo is Nvidias foot in the door of console business, so i don't see Nvidia going for higher royalties. They might benefit from more consoles sold at lower prices though.

And looking at Switch's current price, future price cuts might not only keep demands high but lead to higher demand.
With games like Mario Odyssey and Pokemon and even the very first holiday season ahead it's actually just beginning to get interesting.
Right now it's likely over six million for the first six months without holiday sales. And with mostly Wii U Ports.



Miyamotoo said:

bonzobanana said:

 The only real downside is Nvidia being the business partner they may screw up the success somehow applying leverage for higher royalties even on older chipsets and force Nintendo to move to a different hardware platform. Nvidia may just keep pushing for a larger slice of the pie keeping retail prices high and downsizing the possible install base.

Also Nintendo software prices are very premium. Your money goes a lot further with android, ios, PC and PS4 which have very low pricing or heavy discounting for older games. It's another factor that will give pressure to reduce Nintendo's sales.

Lastly we are prejudging Switch demand too early. Yes there is low stock but at this point we don't even have an install base of 6 million, there could well be a slowdown.

Nvidia CEO said that relationship with Nintendo "will likely last two decades". It's obvious that Nvidia and Nintendo look at long time partnership, so in that on mind hardly that Nvidia will screw Nintendo if they relly want long time partnership. Its most likely that Nvidia will provide chips for Switch revisions and future Nintendo hardwares for few generations.

Nintendo software prices were premium even with Wii, also Nintendo does has Nintendo Selects line where they selling older games for $20.

Switch just won Avgust in US again and its still selling great in Japan, actually shipments were bigger in late July and August compared to previous months and there are still shortages, and soon holiday season will come. So obviously, Switch sales are not slowing down and it won't be slow down anytime soon (because holiday season). If you look VGC numbers, 5.4m is without August and September sales. Switch with shipments in last quarter (July, August and September) will be closer to 7m than to 6m.

We shall see, perhaps there is a change in culture at Nvidia but many companies of the past including Microsoft and Sony had a somewhat toxic relationship with them. Stating 2 decades means little, not ramping up royalties means a lot. I doubt if both Nintendo and Nvidia have locked down their future commercial relationship at this point in time. 

As for software prices clearly the value on many other formats is much higher than Nintendo formats. Sometimes the same games on android or ios can be pence compared to pounds on Nintendo hardware. I really don't think this is debatable, the cost of cartridges is keeping Switch game prices high often higher than the same games on more capable hardware. I'm just saying its a factor that works against Nintendo. Many people are happy to pay premium prices for content especially exclusive Switch games of course. However for those who are looking for content at lower prices they may well look elsewhere. Pricing is always a factor and the less the deposable income is per country the more likely they resist high pricing. The poorer countries of Europe have had quite low interest in Switch often with available stock pretty much from day one. It's an important factor in selling the Switch worldwide.

I don't know the long term sales of the Switch but I'm certainly not estimating low sales its more a debate about what level of success the Switch will have. It always felt from day one Switch was perfect for Japan and the US is a very strong territory for Nintendo. I guess the real battle is elsewhere around the world. Success can be localised. Xbox was almost limited to its best success in english speaking countries. Switch currently may be more limited to countries with higher disposable incomes. Again the picture will become clearer once we have gone through Christmas and satisified core demand for the product. I personally think the ps4 will continue to be the dominant format and hardware seller around the world this Christmas with the exception of Japan and possibly US. Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds, the high's the low's etc. 

Strangely the retail presence here in the UK for Switch is still very low. Often with no demo consoles available and only a small section for Switch games and accessories. This may change dramatically as more Switch stock becomes available but still seems strange. Even when PS4 stock was low at the beginning you could happily play on PS4 demo units in various shops. The same shops push the big PS4 and Xbox titles. It almost feels like there is some retail resistance to Switch here. Online shopping means this isn't as critical as it once was I guess though. Maybe the huge range of software on ps4 and xbox and them relying on reselling old games is part of the reason. Their business model may simply work better with ps4 and xbox. 



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bonzobanana said:
Miyamotoo said:

Nvidia CEO said that relationship with Nintendo "will likely last two decades". It's obvious that Nvidia and Nintendo look at long time partnership, so in that on mind hardly that Nvidia will screw Nintendo if they relly want long time partnership. Its most likely that Nvidia will provide chips for Switch revisions and future Nintendo hardwares for few generations.

Nintendo software prices were premium even with Wii, also Nintendo does has Nintendo Selects line where they selling older games for $20.

Switch just won Avgust in US again and its still selling great in Japan, actually shipments were bigger in late July and August compared to previous months and there are still shortages, and soon holiday season will come. So obviously, Switch sales are not slowing down and it won't be slow down anytime soon (because holiday season). If you look VGC numbers, 5.4m is without August and September sales. Switch with shipments in last quarter (July, August and September) will be closer to 7m than to 6m.

We shall see, perhaps there is a change in culture at Nvidia but many companies of the past including Microsoft and Sony had a somewhat toxic relationship with them. Stating 2 decades means little, not ramping up royalties means a lot. I doubt if both Nintendo and Nvidia have locked down their future commercial relationship at this point in time. 

As for software prices clearly the value on many other formats is much higher than Nintendo formats. Sometimes the same games on android or ios can be pence compared to pounds on Nintendo hardware. I really don't think this is debatable, the cost of cartridges is keeping Switch game prices high often higher than the same games on more capable hardware. I'm just saying its a factor that works against Nintendo. Many people are happy to pay premium prices for content especially exclusive Switch games of course. However for those who are looking for content at lower prices they may well look elsewhere. Pricing is always a factor and the less the deposable income is per country the more likely they resist high pricing. The poorer countries of Europe have had quite low interest in Switch often with available stock pretty much from day one. It's an important factor in selling the Switch worldwide.

I don't know the long term sales of the Switch but I'm certainly not estimating low sales its more a debate about what level of success the Switch will have. It always felt from day one Switch was perfect for Japan and the US is a very strong territory for Nintendo. I guess the real battle is elsewhere around the world. Success can be localised. Xbox was almost limited to its best success in english speaking countries. Switch currently may be more limited to countries with higher disposable incomes. Again the picture will become clearer once we have gone through Christmas and satisified core demand for the product. I personally think the ps4 will continue to be the dominant format and hardware seller around the world this Christmas with the exception of Japan and possibly US. Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds, the high's the low's etc. 

Strangely the retail presence here in the UK for Switch is still very low. Often with no demo consoles available and only a small section for Switch games and accessories. This may change dramatically as more Switch stock becomes available but still seems strange. Even when PS4 stock was low at the beginning you could happily play on PS4 demo units in various shops. The same shops push the big PS4 and Xbox titles. It almost feels like there is some retail resistance to Switch here. Online shopping means this isn't as critical as it once was I guess though. Maybe the huge range of software on ps4 and xbox and them relying on reselling old games is part of the reason. Their business model may simply work better with ps4 and xbox. 

Many things changed from 2005. also there are not too many potential buyers of Nvidia mobile tech, in that way Nvidia stays present in console market, while Nintendo talked about how want to stick to one tech/architecture because they had huge problems when they had new tech/architecture with evre new generation (basically they were starting from 0 with every new generation and only expectations was going from GC to Wii) and Nvidia Tegra chips are almost perfect for what Nintendo needs. Also, you don't bring "2 decades of relationship" if you dont have some huge plans, I am pretty sure they already made some deals for some future chips.

My point was simple, even Wii that sold over 100m had "premium price" for Nintendo games, and Nintendo have discounts, Wii, DS, Wii U, and 3DS all had "Nintendo Selects" line of games for $20. If we talk about 3rd party games, many people are will to pay even more for some multiplatform game compared to same game on PS4/XB1 because on Switch you can play that game in full handheld mode also, alongside full home console play. Price factor was always important for hardware itself, for games not so important, especially when Nintendo games are what selling Switch on first place (not multiplatform games). Poor countries in Europe are weak markets for any console.

We will know real Switch strength when Switch became regulary available all over the world and after holiday season, so some time next year. But fact is that Switch sales currently are not slowing down and it will not slow down any time soon, Switch still didnt meat demand and its still suply constrained. Switch could easily kill this holiday season if Nintendo has enough stocks to ship. Also I don't see any reason why would sales slowdown next year, Switch will still have great concept, good marketing and it will have new big system seller games, next year too, and it seems that Switch is more and more popular how is more time on market.

We also recently had info that this year Switch is selling less than PS4 but better than XB1 in UK, so that's good for UK that's actually one of weakest Nintendo market in Europe (if we talk about big European countres).



I predict 50 to 60mm units through 2022.



killeryoshis said:
Keep in mind that this is 130 million by 2022. So the average it will sell per calendar year is 21.6 million. The only systems that got this high annually is the Wii and DS. The DS went as high as 30 million per year. So this isn't too far fetched. We will just have to wait and see.

I think this prediction is a bit too high but the Switch keeps outdoing my predictions so we'll see.

Yeah, that seems dangerously optimistic. We won't know if it's selling like a handheld until there's a larger supply.



routsounmanman said:
RolStoppable said:

Welcome back, Paul. I've seen a couple others of your recent posts. Good to see you back.

And yes, the next few years will be glorious.

I got no such welcome back :(

Then a late welcome back is in order.

Welcome back, routsounmanman.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Paul said:
I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.

I wonder what fanboy meltdowns, 'cuase ps4 is doing as good or better than switch, do you mean xbox fans?