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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch's First Year Sales

curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Like I already wrote to you about this mather, Retros game, new Pokemon, new Animal Crossing, Next Level Games game, posible Pikmin 4, posible new 2D Mario, some new IP, posible some other Wii U/Wii ports, posible some 3rd party exclusives...all those games are posible for 2018. for Switch. Not to mentione that Switch will have stronger 3rd party support in 2018. than Wii U in any case because Wii U losed almost all 3rd party support in its 1st year, also I think that Switch will have much better 3rd party support in 2017. because more 3rd party devs will be on board, espacily Japanese ones.

Talking about 3DS, look at this list, 3DS games with reviews in 2017. until now, only 6 games.

http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/year/3ds/filtered?sort=desc

Also check out this NeoGaf thread

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1361901

3DS is started losing Nintendo support and it obvious that Nintendo is focused at Switch, most likely Nintendo will completely stop supporting 3DS next year.

Retro Studios is a myth, just like unicorns, global warming and the female orgasm.

They finished last game at end of 2012. they next Wii U project was definitely moved on Switch in some point, I can bet we will see their game on E3 in two months.



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Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

Retro Studios is a myth, just like unicorns, global warming and the female orgasm.

They finished last game at end of 2012. they next Wii U project was definitely moved on Switch in some point, I can bet we will see their game on E3 in two months.

I was joking, but it is annoying that we don't already know what they're working on. It's been over 3 years since Tropical Freeze came out, so by the time their new game comes out it'll have been about 4 years, or even more. I could maybe forgive that kind of a wait if it was a complex amibitious game, but I bet it won't be.



curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Like I already wrote to you about this mather, Retros game, new Pokemon, new Animal Crossing, Next Level Games game, posible Pikmin 4, posible new 2D Mario, some new IP, posible some other Wii U/Wii ports, posible some 3rd party exclusives...all those games are posible for 2018. for Switch. Not to mentione that Switch will have stronger 3rd party support in 2018. than Wii U in any case because Wii U losed almost all 3rd party support in its 1st year, also I think that Switch will have much better 3rd party support in 2017. because more 3rd party devs will be on board, espacily Japanese ones.

Talking about 3DS, look at this list, 3DS games with reviews in 2017. until now, only 6 games.

http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/year/3ds/filtered?sort=desc

Also check out this NeoGaf thread

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1361901

3DS is started losing Nintendo support and it obvious that Nintendo is focused at Switch, most likely Nintendo will completely stop supporting 3DS next year.

Retro Studios is a myth, just like unicorns, global warming and the female orgasm.

xD

But the transition of handheld IP and allies is already starting.  Shin Megami Tensei V is a Switch exclusive (as of now) and running on an engine incompatible with the 3DS.  Fire Emblem's next main entry is slated for Switch and as of now only Switch.  And Octopath Traveler, spiritual cousin to Bravely, is slated for Switch.  All of those are 2018.  So I wouldn't be surprised to see Pokemon in 2018.  And Nintendo does still have Mario Kart 9 and Smash 5 as possibilities coming from their heavy hitters list.  Also might be time to put more weight behind their less promoted franchises and revive some dormant ones.  Xenoblade has more potential appeal than Nintendo has tapped and if Xenoblade X continues as a parallel franchise even better.  I think Metroid should come back Prime style with more story like 3 but better exploration and just make it a sequel to Fusion.  Seriously, in this day and age an exploration based shooter type action adventure game would be very well.  And I think F-Zero would be a good one to launch if for no other reason than it makes for a great tech demo.



curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

They finished last game at end of 2012. they next Wii U project was definitely moved on Switch in some point, I can bet we will see their game on E3 in two months.

I was joking, but it is annoying that we don't already know what they're working on. It's been over 3 years since Tropical Freeze came out, so by the time their new game comes out it'll have been about 4 years, or even more. I could maybe forgive that kind of a wait if it was a complex amibitious game, but I bet it won't be.

Actually I find it's quite interesting we still don't know whats their game. :)

I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.

Also Miyamoto stated that one that Retro is big enuf to work on more than one game, so buy they could easily have two games in development.



Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

I was joking, but it is annoying that we don't already know what they're working on. It's been over 3 years since Tropical Freeze came out, so by the time their new game comes out it'll have been about 4 years, or even more. I could maybe forgive that kind of a wait if it was a complex amibitious game, but I bet it won't be.

Actually I find it's quite interesting we still don't know whats their game. :)

I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.

Retro haven't made an ambitious game in 10 years now.



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curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Actually I find it's quite interesting we still don't know whats their game. :)

I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.

Retro haven't made an ambitious game in 10 years now.

Like I wrote, I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.



Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

Retro haven't made an ambitious game in 10 years now.

Like I wrote, I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.

Yeah I read what you wrote, but you only ever predict positive outcomes, so after a while it's kinda like the boy who cried wolf.



15 million



I would guess somewhere between DS and 3DS, depending on what Nintendo reveal at E3. If they add Smash Bros and Pokemon Stars to their line-up for August-December 2017, then I can see that powering Switch to a really, really big Christmas quarter when combined with Mario Odyssey. I'd say year one sales of 13-14 million in that case.

If Nintendo have already played their hand, and the end of year line-up is Xenoblade 2, Fire Emblem Warriors and Mario Odyssey, then I think 9-10 million by the end of next March is more realistic. I really do think the combined selling power of Pokemon and Smash - on top of Splatoon 2, Mario Kart, Zelda, 3D Mario in the 1st year - would power Switch to a much more impressive year. It then becomes a big question of whether or not Nintendo can maintain those kind of sales levels in the years to come.



curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Like I wrote, I am certain its not another 2D game and probably is ambitious game, we will found soon at E3.

Yeah I read what you wrote, but you only ever predict positive outcomes, so after a while it's kinda like the boy who cried wolf.

This is kind a irony, because it was said but easily most pessimistic person here on site.