Hmm it sold 331k this Jan and 437 in Feb.

Last year Jan it sold 460k and last Feb it sold 406k so last year is tracking ahead of this year.

Yes, but when you look at it its not that bad off as yet. 866k vs 768k.....

But it seems to be getting worse, especially in europe. And with the switch out now it could only get even worse.

Unless there's a Scorpio event that completely slams the brakes on the Xbox One, I don't see it getting outsold quite THAT badly. I would take the One to reach 30m first. 

If weekly numbers stayed very close to the same as they are XBOX One would reach 30 million in 13 weeks, PS4 in 14 weeks. The is without assuming PS4 will get a sales boost with Horizon Zero Dawn and other exclusives coming out. Meanwhile while XBOX One can continue going on the decline due to know significant exclusives in site. The only multiplat I can understand moving hardware is Mass Effective: Andomeda.

I had actually considered that. The current rate of sales between the two.

And led me to my prediction in two ways.

One. PS4 will get a boost from horizon. No doubt about it and at least its likely going to be big enough to match a week of extra sales. If any console will get any kinda boost from ME it will also be the PS4. And then we have other games like nier, persona 5...etc that won't give a boost but keep the mindshare of the PS4 positive.

And two, yes i calculated around 13 weeks for the XB1 to reach 30M. But i expect the weekly numbers  to drop by an at least 15% average because teher really isn't a single XB1 excusive releasing between now and June 22nd, which is around 13 weeks from now. Most importantly, E3 this year MS is going to probably say a lot of stuff about the Scorpio. The second they do that and give it a release that, sales of the XB1s will drop like a rock. Unless of course they also announce a new XB1(ss) a  price drop likee sony did with the PS4pro and PS4s announcements.

In reality, I bet they are both around 3m from these targets +- a little wiggle room. I can see the Ps4 selling 1m easier than the XB1 hitting 500k at the minute, so it doesn't seem that bold. However just on Chartz numbers, they do seem to figure Xbox one rates of sales higher than PS4 for some reason, so from that point of view you will probably lose the prediction, even if the truth is the opposite.

Seems likely imo.