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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch make it to 20 million?

Green098 on 17 January 2017
Random_Matt said:
Lots of optimism.
Although, let's not assume all 3DS users will jump to switch.

They will if they want Pokemon, Nintendo's really got them with that one.



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Aerys on 17 January 2017

It wont sell more than GameCube



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Insidb on 17 January 2017
FloatingWaffles said:

The Nintendo Switch is both the new nintendo handheld and console.

The 3DS sold 61.6 million.
The Wii U sold 13.6 million.

Of the 3DS userbase, let's say only 25 million decide they want the next Nintendo handheld.
Of the Wii U userbase, let's say only 6 million decide they want the next Nintendo console.
And let's say of all of those that 10 million would have bought both the handheld and console seperately if it was the same situation as 3DS and Wii U, but now they just have to buy one single system since the Switch is both. 

That's already 41 million.

The Switch will have Pokemon, Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Mario, Zelda, etc, etc. All of which could get the Switch to and PAST 20 million just by themselves.

So yes, I imagine the Switch will easily surpass 20 million. 

Of that 61.6 million 3DS customer base, keep in mind that handheld sales are down 67%, gen-on-gen. 

That translates to the next-gen handheld (the NS and maybe something else) projecting to ~20 million and your 25 million in migrants becoming ~8 million.

When all is said and done, the 41 million ends up lookign more like 24 million.

Thank the rise of mobile gaming for that.



Insidb on 17 January 2017
Normchacho said:
I could honestly see the Switch doing anything from 25 to 50 million.

I agree; there's too much unpredictability in the future of the handheld market.



Normchacho on 17 January 2017
Insidb said:
Normchacho said:
I could honestly see the Switch doing anything from 25 to 50 million.

I agree; there's too much unpredictability in the future of the handheld market.

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that it will sell more than the Wii U. Simply because it doesn't seem to be garbage. But the handheld market does seem to be contracting, and I think people need to remember that a sizeable chunk of 3DS sales have come from people replacing theirs with newer systems. Whether it be going form the origional 3DS to the XL, or the 3DS to the New 3DS. So they may have sold 65 million systems, but not to 65 million people.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

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bonzobanana on 17 January 2017

I don't think the current sku of the Nintendo Switch will do that well but I think a redesigned lower cost version will do a lot better a bit like the situation of the original Nintendo DS vs the Nintendo DS lite.



mjk45 on 17 January 2017
VAMatt said:
If it's not a replacement for the 3DS, then I think 20 million is an interesting threshold to consider. If it is a replacement for the 3DS, as well as the Wii U, then I think 50 million is the threshold to think about.

Reggie said that the 3DS will be sold along side the switch , so that covers the hardware for now ,but it doesn't tell us about what software the 3Ds will recieve .

It's obvious that the switch will be prioritised when it comes to software. How much will depend on it's fortunes, if it's going fine they may feel confident enough to throw a few bones  at the 3DS , otherwise they may feel that they have to throw the whole box and dice at the switch and that could include making it the sole product by discontinuing the 3DS earlier than invisioned.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Valdath on 17 January 2017

Of course it will.



zorg1000 on 17 January 2017

Yes, shipments will surpass 20 million by March 31, 2019.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

SmileyAja on 17 January 2017

PS4 150 million and XBONE 90 million? Hahahaha, yeah they'll totally reach those and the Switch will sell less than 20 million units.

The Switch will pass that mark without a doubt, a good amount of the 3DS and Wii U userbase are both making the switch to the system, not to mention they'll probably gather small portions of more niche audiences, I've seen a lot of PC gamers getting the Switch for mostly playing on the go and the exclusives as an example.