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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

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How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.04%
 
10M-20M 125 12.95%
 
20M-30M 137 14.20%
 
30M-40M 143 14.82%
 
40M-50M 121 12.54%
 
50M-60M 120 12.44%
 
60M-70M 70 7.25%
 
70M-80M 60 6.22%
 
80M-100M 59 6.11%
 
> 100M 91 9.43%
 
Total:965
Wyrdness said:
potato_hamster said:

Wait, why are you putting so much emphasis on Japan? As well as the Switch is selling there, it still represents less than 25% of Switch sales. Still A Nintendo/handheld console getting "95%" of Japanese games is the status quo.  It was the same for the DS, the same for the Vita, the same for the PSP, and so on. It would be surprising if the Switch didn't get the vast majority of Japanese games on its platform. Why should anyone care when considering overall sales? What difference does that make? What percentage of those Japanese games are released outside of Japan? How many of them sell more than 500K copies outside of Japan? Look how many Japanese games were released on the Vita in 2018 if you need to put in perspective how little that matters for overall platform sales. For example, why should  a prospective buyer care at all if the next game from the makers of "Tokyo Xanadu" or the hundreds of other developers like them doesn't come to a Playstation or Xbox next time around? How many people is that actually going to sway into buying a Switch? If the answer to that isn't "tens of millions of people" then it really doesn't matter.

At the end of the day, It doesn't matter how many third party exclusives the Switch has, it matters how many third party exclusives that pushes a prospective buyer into buying one. Indies and Japanese games don't exactly have a great track record of leading to world-wide sales. If they did, the Vita would have been FAR more successful than it was. At the end of the day, the Switch is going to get less and less third party system sellers after Sony and MS release new consoles, and that's all that really matters.


Your argument kind of hits a wall because you're going about third party titles that sell the platform when no Nintendo platform really relies on third party to sell itself and what's ironic is the third parties that do have some semblance of an impact are often the Japanese games as they tend to be the only games that mirror the appeal of what the first party games have which actually backs his point on eastern developers being significant.

Out of all the Switch games only one third party game has actually had an impact on sales and that was Octopath all the other system sellers have been first party titles and they've had no problem selling the platform even when games like RDR2, GOW, Spiderman etc... have come out the NS even in total  sales outsold the PS4 in NA for 2018 according to NPD highlighting the reality of the situation is what you're trying to say is a factor really has no bearing on the Switch.

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.



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potato_hamster said:

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.

Nope no contradiction as Octopath is very much in line with rpgs that Nintendo would put traditional but with a certain quirk to it similar to how Paper Mario and the M&L games have quirks that put put a spin on the traditional JRPG approach not to mention Nintendo has made JRPG type games so the appeal is already among the userbase.

You're the one saying only exclusives that have sales impact matter when for Nintendo that's not been the case for well over a decade now which is what I responded to, don't try that side step either because the point is very clear you're talking about games that can't be ported being a problem when we've just had a year with some notable games that weren't ported and Switch did just fine and outperformed the platform with those games which under the stance you're arguing shouldn't happen.



potato_hamster said:
Wyrdness said:

Your argument kind of hits a wall because you're going about third party titles that sell the platform when no Nintendo platform really relies on third party to sell itself and what's ironic is the third parties that do have some semblance of an impact are often the Japanese games as they tend to be the only games that mirror the appeal of what the first party games have which actually backs his point on eastern developers being significant.

Out of all the Switch games only one third party game has actually had an impact on sales and that was Octopath all the other system sellers have been first party titles and they've had no problem selling the platform even when games like RDR2, GOW, Spiderman etc... have come out the NS even in total  sales outsold the PS4 in NA for 2018 according to NPD highlighting the reality of the situation is what you're trying to say is a factor really has no bearing on the Switch.

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.

Actually, not only that, but it basically tied with PS4's peak year in the US as well. Isn't that impressive?



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

LipeJJ said:
potato_hamster said:

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.

Actually, not only that, but it basically tied with PS4's peak year in the US as well. Isn't that impressive?

Or this statistic, after 22 months Switch is outselling PS4 by 22%, XBO by 34% & 3DS by 35%.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Fusioncode said:

Oh & you want a number? Here's one for you: 12 million Switch sold by December 31, 2017.
Here's another: 35 million Switch sold by December 31, 2018.
Here's one more: 60 million Switch sold by December 31, 2019.
And one more for the road: 240 million LIFETIME Switch sales.

Pretty close so far!



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Wyrdness said:
potato_hamster said:

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.

Nope no contradiction as Octopath is very much in line with rpgs that Nintendo would put traditional but with a certain quirk to it similar to how Paper Mario and the M&L games have quirks that put put a spin on the traditional JRPG approach not to mention Nintendo has made JRPG type games so the appeal is already among the userbase.

You're the one saying only exclusives that have sales impact matter when for Nintendo that's not been the case for well over a decade now which is what I responded to, don't try that side step either because the point is very clear you're talking about games that can't be ported being a problem when we've just had a year with some notable games that weren't ported and Switch did just fine and outperformed the platform with those games which under the stance you're arguing shouldn't happen.

Now I've heard it all. By that definition pretty much any JRPG is "like Nintendo first party games". Nintendo made Splatoon. Does that mean Call of Duty is "like Nintendo first party games"? Name "a traditional RPG released in the the past, I don't know, 10 years that doesn't "have a certain quirk to it". FFXV has "a certain quirk to it", and that is nothing like Paper Mario, and but then again, neither is Octopath Traveller.

I never said exclusives that have a sales impact matter (even though they do), I said third party games that have a sales impact matter. If third party games that didn't have a sales impact mattered, the Vita would have sold like gangbusters. If Nintendo first party games alone mattered, the Wii U would have sold like gangbusters. You're oversimplifying the issue. When people talk about "third party support" they don't mean hundreds of indies are Japan-exclusive Japanese-made games that almost all will sell, less than 500K copies that your average owner of that platform has never even heard of. You're contorting "third party support" to emphasize the little (and frankly insignifcant) third party support Nintendo has, and pretending that's just fine.

Look. Nintendo has already released Mario, New Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Splatoon, Pokemon, Mario party, Mario Tennis, Bayonetta, Smash, Krby, among others. They've already put out most of the popular Wii U titles on the Switch. What's left exactly? Metroid (which believe it or not, has never been a system seller, or popular by Nitnendo game standards), another Pokemon game, Animal crossing and then what? HDer remakes of HD Remakes? Maybe dig out Star Fox? It's not like there's too much left in easy Wii U ports to push through to fill in the gaps, and Nintendo frankly cannot keep up the pace of releasing games like they have been.  I think that's why people are expecting  Mario Odyssey 2 or Zelda 2 will drop in the next couple years since Nintendo's hands are tied and those would be easier and quicker titles to make than building new games from scratch. Now, if only there were other studios that made system sellers on Nintendo's consoles, then maybe Nintendo wouldn't have to do it all themselves and rush the bulk of their catalog out in the first two years of their new console's life. Maybe then they wouldn't have to have a Direct to announce a bunch of indie games that no one has ever heard of ior is really that interested in, and if they have or are, won't be talking about a year after they're released.




LipeJJ said:
potato_hamster said:

If your argument is that third party titles don't really matter in the grand scheme of things for Nintendo platforms then why are we talking about it? Also, isn't it ironic that you claim that Japanese games that have an impact are ones that mirrors the appeal of first party games, and then mention Octopath Traveller, which isn't like any major first party Nintendo game that Nintendo has made in years. You're contradicting yourself.

Great, the Switch outsold a console in the 5th year of its life that experienced declining sales in the US. So what? That was pretty much expected universally. I'd be concerned if it didn't.

Actually, not only that, but it basically tied with PS4's peak year in the US as well. Isn't that impressive?

It's quite impressive. The Switch is selling great so far.



potato_hamster said:

...

Come off it mate the point is the appeal for JRPGs was already there to begin with even from Nintendo themselves whether Earthbound, PM, M&L or for a more traditional JRPG the are games like Soma so the appeal has always been there for such games, FFXV has no particular quirk to it that's a weak attempt at a rebuttal XV is doing what all other games are doing and going open world even if you ask anyone who has played it the is nothing that stands out in it this response highlights you don't even know the context of quirk in gameplay.

Again you saying they have to have a sales impact to matter we know is not the case because the Switch or any other Nintendo platform isn't relying on them to sell the system it's relying on it's first party to do that third party games for Nintendo are mainly there to keep owners of the system invested in it most third party games on Nintendo platforms sell mainly to people who are already owners. Ironic you bring up the Wii U to try and argue against this because that system is the perfect example of what I'm saying that platform for the first year had COD, AC, Arkham etc... most of the industries heavy hitters but sold little in fact it was when first party games release that any semblance of sales spikes and momentum appeared this is because these games have smaller appeal to those who buy Nintendo's platform. What matters to Nintendo for them to sell are first party and a good concept executed well or decent hardware to accommodate the first party, as for indie titles too bad the sales of them contradict you claiming no one is interested in them.

What's left? Nintendo's library has a large number of options they can decide to turn to off the top of my head Tomodachi, Paper Mario, M&L, Sin and Punishment, Fire Emblem, Chibi Robo, Yoshi, Pikmin, Warioware, Advance Wars, 1080, Kid Icarus, Luigi's Mansion, Pilot Wings, Project Zero, Custom robo, Star Fox, F Zero etc... They can even do collaboration deals like with Daeman and Marvel Ultimate Alliance and such. Either way this is a weak argument because saying well this is already out so it can't help in future has been proven wrong so many times like with Pokemon, X/Y as well as ORAS was already on the platform it didn't stop Sun/Moon tearing things up and many of the franchises you mention have offshoots that are their own thing that also sell.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 24 January 2019

potato_hamster said:


I never said exclusives that have a sales impact matter (even though they do), I said third party games that have a sales impact matter. If third party games that didn't have a sales impact mattered, the Vita would have sold like gangbusters. If Nintendo first party games alone mattered, the Wii U would have sold like gangbusters. You're oversimplifying the issue. When people talk about "third party support" they don't mean hundreds of indies are Japan-exclusive Japanese-made games that almost all will sell, less than 500K copies that your average owner of that platform has never even heard of. You're contorting "third party support" to emphasize the little (and frankly insignifcant) third party support Nintendo has, and pretending that's just fine.

Look. Nintendo has already released Mario, New Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Splatoon, Pokemon, Mario party, Mario Tennis, Bayonetta, Smash, Krby, among others. They've already put out most of the popular Wii U titles on the Switch. What's left exactly? Metroid (which believe it or not, has never been a system seller, or popular by Nitnendo game standards), another Pokemon game, Animal crossing and then what? HDer remakes of HD Remakes? Maybe dig out Star Fox? It's not like there's too much left in easy Wii U ports to push through to fill in the gaps, and Nintendo frankly cannot keep up the pace of releasing games like they have been.  I think that's why people are expecting  Mario Odyssey 2 or Zelda 2 will drop in the next couple years since Nintendo's hands are tied and those would be easier and quicker titles to make than building new games from scratch. Now, if only there were other studios that made system sellers on Nintendo's consoles, then maybe Nintendo wouldn't have to do it all themselves and rush the bulk of their catalog out in the first two years of their new console's life. Maybe then they wouldn't have to have a Direct to announce a bunch of indie games that no one has ever heard of ior is really that interested in, and if they have or are, won't be talking about a year after they're released.

Arent you kind of oversimplified the issue as well? Sure, Wii U proved that just a handful of Nintendo games each year cant make a system succeed. Vita proved that indies and small Japanese games alone are not enough to make a system succeed. But the thing neither of those accurately describe Switch. It's basically a successor to Wii U, 3DS & Vita all in one, which combined sold 100+ million, and it's getting the consolidated support of all three.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

VAMatt said:
Jumpin said:

....EVERYONE knew the name of Mario and our sword-wielding Hyrule hero Zelda =D

I think you mean Link, not Zelda.  

Haha, sorry, it's a bit of an outdated joke. Many were not aware that "Zelda" was a feminine name, and assumed that was the name of the hero featured in the game - especially non-English playing an English version that didn't understand the story saying the heroes name was Link.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.