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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

DonFerrari on 26 October 2016
Soundwave said:
Nem said:
It really won't.

It's too big to be seen as a popular portable.
Its too weak to be a popular home console.

It's a cute Nintendo system, but i don't see it blowing up to 100m, even if it manages to take off and they phase their portable market into it... i don't see it doing more than 40-50m.

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

Yep, I would say 50M on an unified userbase would be a lot better than the fracture they have now.

zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

It would be more along the lines of 30% decline, most Wii U owners are the most hardcore Nintendo fans, they likely own a 3DS in many cases as Wii U really failed to break out to a wider audience beyond the same ol' Nintendo fans. 

But their business will be different in the future, Switch is only one pillar, mobile apps will be a huge money maker for them and movies will probably factor into that too. 

50 million Switch + being one of the biggest mobile app makers in the world + movies/merchandising/theme parks > 3DS + Wii U. 

Unified userbase will increase the general sales of games like Splatoon and Mario Maker too. 

I think Switch is a more practical platform designed to "stop the bleeding" as it were from the last gen. The amount of losses they took from the Wii/DS to Wii U/3DS was catastrophic. 

Regardless of multi-device owners, that is still a 40% decrease in unit sales which is the exact opposite of "stop the bleeding" and will not make them happy.

The HW sales is the least relevant... look at HH attach ratios... several households have like 1 WiiU but multiple HH (that probably haven't multiple copies of the same game).

So if they shrink 40% of their summed userbase but end up with "single machines per household" and considering they will sell the games more often on 60 than on 40 USD and at higher attach ratios (like going from 4 to 10 per HW) Nintendo could have higher revenue and much higher profit on 50M Switch than on 70-80M WiiU+3DS.

WagnerPaiva said:

It is the first console ever that is also a mascot! It will sell hundreds of millions =)

That is so fucking cute.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Wyrdness on 26 October 2016

Not 100m but I can see it reaching 70m if it's priced right as it I can both the portable and console userbases eventually migrating over to it.



Azhraell on 26 October 2016
Nautilus said:
leyendax69 said:
I love these threads, not saying it won't but I would absolutely love for it not to happen, just for the meltdowns :^

Then try to imagine the meltdown of denials if Nintendo managed to get a win for a change!

I mean it SHOULD sell around 100m, which is close to 3ds+wiiu combined, if it doesn't it would be a surprise and bad for nintendo, not really a meltdown as probably most people are expecting a similar figure, even non nintendo fans



DonFerrari on 26 October 2016
leyendax69 said:
Nautilus said:

Then try to imagine the meltdown of denials if Nintendo managed to get a win for a change!

I mean it SHOULD sell around 100m, which is close to 3ds+wiiu combined, if it doesn't it would be a surprise and bad for nintendo, not really a meltdown as probably most people are expecting a similar figure, even non nintendo fans

WiiU+3DS are a lot closer to 70M than to 100M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Lawlight on 26 October 2016
WagnerPaiva said:

It is the first console ever that is also a mascot! It will sell hundreds of millions =)

That is a horrible creature.



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jonathanalis on 26 October 2016

If they release a handheld switch, i think so. the switch ecosystem should combined pass 100 million if it live enough.



BlkPaladin on 26 October 2016

I doubt there will be any console/handhelds that will be able to breech 100million anymore unless they drag out the generation like they did with the Wii/PS3/360. I think that we will see systems only reach 50-to-80 million range from now on.



Soundwave on 26 October 2016
BlkPaladin said:
I doubt there will be any console/handhelds that will be able to breech 100million anymore unless they drag out the generation like they did with the Wii/PS3/360. I think that we will see systems only reach 50-to-80 million range from now on.

I tend to agree, though Nintendo could make it a little interesting if NS can run Android apps somehow through their custom OS/eShop. I think actually that's key unknown with the NS right now from a sales POV, was Nikkei correct about that report, because they have been right several times before even with Nintendo denials. 



Soundwave on 26 October 2016
jonathanalis said:
If they release a handheld switch, i think so. the switch ecosystem should combined pass 100 million if it live enough.

There is a handheld Switch. It's called the Switch, lol. 

With the controller sides removed it's not even really that much bigger than 3DS XL, the "pocket or nothing" crowd needs to chill out a bit. Very few people carry around a portable game machine in their front pocket to begin with anymore. It's usually in a bag or jacket pockets. 

A new revision is not going to increase sales that much. 



BlkPaladin on 26 October 2016
Soundwave said:
BlkPaladin said:
I doubt there will be any console/handhelds that will be able to breech 100million anymore unless they drag out the generation like they did with the Wii/PS3/360. I think that we will see systems only reach 50-to-80 million range from now on.

I tend to agree, though Nintendo could make it a little interesting if NS can run Android apps somehow through their custom OS/eShop. I think actually that's key unknown with the NS right now from a sales POV, was Nikkei correct about that report, because they have been right several times before even with Nintendo denials. 

Considering they removed almost all checks off of development for their systems if you are using the eShop for indie titles and the like I wouldn't doubt they are working to draw in the app development crowd, and seeing two mobile developers in their select list kind of makes me hopeful. (Hopefully they keep some control on it, unlike the Play and Apple stores.)

Or if not that there is still the rumor that the Switch will work with your mobile device and they could use that to play the game by streaming from the phone. Sort of putting it this way, it PS4/Xbox One are trying to be the centerpiece of you living room experience. They will try to be the centerpiece of the mobile experience. They may, by using the streaming route, be able to stream games from the 3DS. Something that can support this theory is it seems from Nintendo's financial they didn't recieve anything for making Mario Run timed exclusive, in terms of money. So what if they recieved help in getting help from Apple to be able to stream from their iPhones/iPads, since unlike Andriod which is a more open platform, iOS tends to be more secure.