(Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

[DonFerrari]

Soundwave said:

Nem said:
It really won't.

It's too big to be seen as a popular portable.
Its too weak to be a popular home console.

It's a cute Nintendo system, but i don't see it blowing up to 100m, even if it manages to take off and they phase their portable market into it... i don't see it doing more than 40-50m.

I think Nintendo would be relatively happy with 50 million. Considering the DS-to-3DS transition cost them like 80 million lost sales in that transition, if they can stem the bleeding from 60-65 million 3DS' to 50 million Switch units, they'll be relatively pleased I think. 

Plus their console franchises will finally have a good size userbase to sell to, the Wii U's low userbase was killing them internally I think it was driving them crazy. They were spending more money to make the games but having a lower userbase to sell them to, getting back to at least a Super NES userbase size would be good. 

To get to that 100 million range you need to have some kind of new IP (or two or three) blow up and really take you there. 

All the Mario & Zelda & Pokemon in the world doesn't get you to 100 million, Nintendo would need something new to really blow up like Wii Sports or Pokemon for the Game Boy. 

Yep, I would say 50M on an unified userbase would be a lot better than the fracture they have now.

zorg1000 said:

Soundwave said:

It would be more along the lines of 30% decline, most Wii U owners are the most hardcore Nintendo fans, they likely own a 3DS in many cases as Wii U really failed to break out to a wider audience beyond the same ol' Nintendo fans. 

But their business will be different in the future, Switch is only one pillar, mobile apps will be a huge money maker for them and movies will probably factor into that too. 

50 million Switch + being one of the biggest mobile app makers in the world + movies/merchandising/theme parks > 3DS + Wii U. 

Unified userbase will increase the general sales of games like Splatoon and Mario Maker too. 

I think Switch is a more practical platform designed to "stop the bleeding" as it were from the last gen. The amount of losses they took from the Wii/DS to Wii U/3DS was catastrophic. 

Regardless of multi-device owners, that is still a 40% decrease in unit sales which is the exact opposite of "stop the bleeding" and will not make them happy.

The HW sales is the least relevant... look at HH attach ratios... several households have like 1 WiiU but multiple HH (that probably haven't multiple copies of the same game).

So if they shrink 40% of their summed userbase but end up with "single machines per household" and considering they will sell the games more often on 60 than on 40 USD and at higher attach ratios (like going from 4 to 10 per HW) Nintendo could have higher revenue and much higher profit on 50M Switch than on 70-80M WiiU+3DS.

WagnerPaiva said:

It is the first console ever that is also a mascot! It will sell hundreds of millions =)

That is so fucking cute.