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Forums - Politics Discussion - What happens when Putin is gone?

The still have elections in Russia



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Johnw1104 said:
At this point I just assume Russia has reverted to its USSR days where it largely just had one leader for long stretches a new one would step in (Khrushchev->Brezhnev->Gorbachev for instance).

Of course, I haven't personally noticed anyone with the kind of personal magnetism and credentials in Russia that Putin has. Putin just seems like he was designed by nature to Dictate.

Difference is Russia isn't the same as the USSR. It's not like United Russia will let the CPRF regain power (and they have cheated at the elections multiple times to do so, just like Boris Yeltsin did). Probably Putin wil groom someone to become his succesor and that person will probably be elected to office.



WolfpackN64 said:
Johnw1104 said:
At this point I just assume Russia has reverted to its USSR days where it largely just had one leader for long stretches a new one would step in (Khrushchev->Brezhnev->Gorbachev for instance).

Of course, I haven't personally noticed anyone with the kind of personal magnetism and credentials in Russia that Putin has. Putin just seems like he was designed by nature to Dictate.

Difference is Russia isn't the same as the USSR. It's not like United Russia will let the CPRF regain power (and they have cheated at the elections multiple times to do so, just like Boris Yeltsin did). Probably Putin wil groom someone to become his succesor and that person will probably be elected to office.

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest the two were really comparable in most ways, merely in that they're quickly graitating towards having power largely wielded by a single individual who eventually passes it on to a successor. Putin should not technically hold anywhere near the influence he does, but he's essentially established himself via friends occupying most of the important positions. 

I really do wonder if anyone could replace him, though... It's possible that when he's gone they'll revert to something more akin to what they had in the early 2000's.



Johnw1104 said:
WolfpackN64 said:

Difference is Russia isn't the same as the USSR. It's not like United Russia will let the CPRF regain power (and they have cheated at the elections multiple times to do so, just like Boris Yeltsin did). Probably Putin wil groom someone to become his succesor and that person will probably be elected to office.

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest the two were really comparable in most ways, merely in that they're quickly graitating towards having power largely wielded by a single individual who eventually passes it on to a successor. Putin should not technically hold anywhere near the influence he does, but he's essentially established himself via friends occupying most of the important positions. 

I really do wonder if anyone could replace him, though... It's possible that when he's gone they'll revert to something more akin to what they had in the early 2000's.

Early 2000's? That's the start of Putin's presidency. Boris Yeltsin made so many mistakes that a western-style liberal democracy could never foster. Yeltsin himself was very anti-democratic in his mannerisms. If Yeltsin was even remotly fair in elections, the CPRF would have gottin into power and Russia would have been a very different place it is now.



WolfpackN64 said:
Johnw1104 said:

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest the two were really comparable in most ways, merely in that they're quickly graitating towards having power largely wielded by a single individual who eventually passes it on to a successor. Putin should not technically hold anywhere near the influence he does, but he's essentially established himself via friends occupying most of the important positions. 

I really do wonder if anyone could replace him, though... It's possible that when he's gone they'll revert to something more akin to what they had in the early 2000's.

Early 2000's? That's the start of Putin's presidency. Boris Yeltsin made so many mistakes that a western-style liberal democracy could never foster. Yeltsin himself was very anti-democratic in his mannerisms. If Yeltsin was even remotly fair in elections, the CPRF would have gottin into power and Russia would have been a very different place it is now.

I said early 2000's precisely because that was the start. Putin has accumulated power over time since then, basically establishing the Prime Minister as little more than his puppet. The picture in the early 2000's was not nearly so bleak as it is now, and I don't feel many others could have bent the system quite like Putin did.



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Johnw1104 said:
WolfpackN64 said:

Early 2000's? That's the start of Putin's presidency. Boris Yeltsin made so many mistakes that a western-style liberal democracy could never foster. Yeltsin himself was very anti-democratic in his mannerisms. If Yeltsin was even remotly fair in elections, the CPRF would have gottin into power and Russia would have been a very different place it is now.

I said early 2000's precisely because that was the start. Putin has accumulated power over time since then, basically establishing the Prime Minister as little more than his puppet. The picture in the early 2000's was not nearly so bleak as it is now, and I don't feel many others could have bent the system quite like Putin did.

He has been a master chess player. Constantly feeling the boundaries of where he could go with his popularity. Very far it seems. It's gone to the point he can shake off any accusation with a shrug. The question is, was Putin's rise to power a purely Russian fenomena or did outside factors also play a role. Probably both.

Anyway, he has the power, and I don't see him tripping soon. Even if the Russian economy underperforms, I think the failure of Yeltsin is still fresh in Russian minds. Whatever Putin does, he can't sink Russia as low as Yeltsin did.



m0ney said:

Will there be war for power? How likely is regional separatism? I am not concerned cos my country is in NATO and EU but it is interesting what politics enthusiasts and russians think.

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

The number of scenarios for Russia is huge. It is close to falling apart yet again, it may stay the way it is, it may even grow. One thing is certain - there will be no democracy there, cause there is no need for it in the society and the country is run by a mob basically either way. They will be searching for a new strong leader soon. Question is - at what cost? What cost for the Russians and other surrounding countries.

Also, USA and China will play a major role in the whole process. As always, Russia is a giant on clay feet.



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Scisca said:

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

I don't see any reason to feel unsafe, Russia is not going to attack EU and NATO, besides it seems Russia owns everything here already anyway, I mean the big companies.



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m0ney said:
Scisca said:

You live in Latvia and you think you're safe? Wow. That's very brave if you ask me. Totally not what I was expecting.

I don't see any reason to feel unsafe, Russia is not going to attack EU and NATO, besides it seems Russia owns everything here already anyway, I mean the big companies.

EU doesn't mean jack shit. NATO? The protection of the Baltic States is a very sensitive and difficult topic. At least we don't share your sentiment in Poland. USA seems to be thinking differently as well considering they are helping us streghten the choke between Russia and Belarus that we and Lithuania have. We are increasing the spendings on our army and increasing the soldier count... Yeah, we share a totally different opinion on this topic and all this despite the fact that we are in a much, much better position than you are.

Also, they wouldn't have to launch a full scale attack on you. With 27% of the population being Russians, they could repeat "the green men" invasion and take over Latvia and Estonia.



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.

-What happens when Putin is gone?

New president will happen. Too early to say who will be next, but most likely it will be his protege. Two, 1.5 years before the end of his fourth presidential term he will begin to promote some guy. His bodyguard, or defense minister, or someone else from his administration. CRAZY, but IF he will die, I think Shoigu immediately will become the president (temporarily, until reelections), less likely current vice-president.