This is actually highly unlikely: when all is said an done (including digital sales), Halo 5 sold about 75% of Splatoon's first quarter sales in 4 days. If those Splatoon's sales are for a full quarter, that means Halo 5 is selling at 13 times the rate of Splatoon. It would also be reasonable to assume that MS won't give up on their flagship franchise and will discount and bundle the shit out of it. With the 400MM in Halo 5 hardware and software shipped, expect the Halo 5 bundle to become the new ACU bundle and be around FOREVER again. None of this takes into account the annual MS firesale, which seems to be their new tradition.

This prediction rating: nope.

I know you're very optimistic about Halo and the 6M may never happen, but Halo 5 outsold Splatoon US LTD sales in 5 days. Even bad math puts Halo 5 ahead, quite possibly by year's end.

I'll gladly take that bet. What are the conditions?

Thats not me being optimistic. I think it might sell 6 million realistic with its poor sales.

The math makes that very possible, but no trend has it being outsold by Splatoon. If Halo 5 sold 1.2M in week 1 and loses 25% of its sales each following week, it will outsell Splatoon by December. 

Ok! The condition is: we'll count numbers until end of 2017 max (or else this bet will go on and on forever). If Halo 5 outsells Splatoon by the end of 2017 you win, if Splatoon manages to stay on top until the end of 2017, I win. Deal?

Wouldnt make that bet if i were you.

Like in 25 months from now? I'm sure I won't remember a thing by then. But sure, feel free to remind me if you want. What are the stakes? Permanent control of the loser's signature? Either way I'm very confident, so I don't mind if you'd rather bet on something else (e.g. start every sense with "x was right. I'm terrible at predictions").

Lets wait and see after the holidays. Not saying Splatoon won't, but I do think Halo will sell more during the holiday period.

Ok, I'm pretty confident as well. I accept the full control of looser's signature. You can put everything you want, even the "X was right, I'm terrible with predictions". If you think Xmas 2017 is too far away, we can seal Xmas 2016. Deal?