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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict Pokemon GO download count (I am inevitably right)

Neodegenerate on 10 September 2015
Teeqoz said:
How much has Pokemon shuffle been downloaded?


According to the Google Play store, 1 million downloads.  So between 1 and 2 million Android atm.



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Neodegenerate on 10 September 2015
fleischr said:
Neodegenerate said:


Based on this I will amend to 200 million, tops.


You also have to account for this: Sonic Dash is a pretty mediocre endless runner, it pushed a lot mainly on brand recognition alone.

Even if it's mediocre as a Pokemon game, it'll have the basic Pokemon combat and catch-em-all mechanics. Which can addict practically anyone.

Apple, Google, and other smartphone makers are praising God right now. This is a huge positive externality towards driving sales of new devices. They each do their part to push the game in some way. 1 billion or bust.


I think even with the gameplay and such my 200 million is high end.



Teeqoz on 10 September 2015
Neodegenerate said:
Teeqoz said:
How much has Pokemon shuffle been downloaded?


According to the Google Play store, 1 million downloads.  So between 1 and 2 million Android atm.


In 10 days? Yeah, if that's the case, I don't see Pokémon Go doing 10 million FW...

 

(and yes, I know we also need App store numbers)



gatito on 10 September 2015

Are you guys seriously using Pokemon Shuffle as an example? That might as well be an Apple Watch game, give me a break.



Neodegenerate on 10 September 2015
Teeqoz said:
Neodegenerate said:


According to the Google Play store, 1 million downloads.  So between 1 and 2 million Android atm.


In 10 days? Yeah, if that's the case, I don't see Pokémon Go doing 10 million FW...

 

(and yes, I know we also need App store numbers)


I don't think the app store gives numbers, do they?  I see 571 reviews, but thats all for a number.



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Teeqoz on 10 September 2015
Neodegenerate said:
Teeqoz said:


In 10 days? Yeah, if that's the case, I don't see Pokémon Go doing 10 million FW...

 

(and yes, I know we also need App store numbers)


I don't think the app store gives numbers, do they?  I see 571 reviews, but thats all for a number.


That's why I said we need 'em :-p



TheDarkBender on 10 September 2015
Neodegenerate said:
Teeqoz said:
How much has Pokemon shuffle been downloaded?


According to the Google Play store, 1 million downloads.  So between 1 and 2 million Android atm.


When it says 1 million on Google Play Store, it means between 1 and 5 million.



 

Neodegenerate on 10 September 2015
TheDarkBender said:
Neodegenerate said:


According to the Google Play store, 1 million downloads.  So between 1 and 2 million Android atm.


When it says 1 million on Google Play Store, it means between 1 and 5 million.


Fair enough.  I assumed they changed at the millions.



Platina on 10 September 2015

Not sure about 1 billion downloads, but it should easily get to 100 M



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fleischr on 10 September 2015

mZuzek said:
Pokémon was already a huge fad, back on the Game Boy days, and won't ever be as big again.

I don't think any brand recognition will make it have that many downloads.

I don't have enough knowledge of the mobile market to make a decent prediction (as if I ever made good predictions on the gaming market already), but my first guess is around 250m.

At some point, everything old becomes new again.

Because it's such a valuable brand, it instantly gets promoted by Apple, Google, Smartphone makers and retailers carrying those products in addition to Nintendo product.

Don't forget: this can move a piece of wristband hardware as well as AR glasses. Do you not see the huge dollar signs?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016