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Forums - Movies & TV - What will be the next movie to break a billion at the box office globally?

Soundwave on 17 July 2015

Star Wars will demolish $1 billion unless the movie really sucks. $1.5 billion+ is more likely there. 

I think Bond has an outside chance too, again it depends on reviews.



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Chris Hu on 17 July 2015
binary solo said:
AlfredoTurkey said:
This whole business about total gross is pointless due to inflation. The only true measure of a movies success is tickets SOLD. Not gross income.

Here is the top 10 domestic (US) records

1 Gone with the Wind
2 Star Wars
3 The Sound of Music
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial
5 Titanic
6 The Ten Commandments
7 Jaws
8 Doctor Zhivago
9 The Exorcist W
10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Dis.

The whole problem is, back in early part of last century there was almost nothing else for the masses to do for entertainment other than go to the movies, and there were fewer movies released per year so people had less choice, or didn't need to pick and choose what to see like we do now. These days there is also a lot more besides movies competing for the entertainment dollar (including video games), most notably VHS-->DVD-->Blu Ray, which a lot of people wait for a movie to come out to buy / rent. As time has gone by the wait between box office release and DVD/Blu ray release has shortened a lot. And in the last 10-15 years streaming (including unofficial streaming the day the movie releases) also affects box office. So across generations ticket numbers is not really an equitable comparison either because conditions in the entertainment industries have changed a huge amount in that time.

It's very interesting to note that out of those top 10, the only movie that was released after home video became mainstream was Titanic, and none of the top 10 was released after fast broadband became mainstream. ET cam out just as VHS was becomming really mainstream, but its box office gross did not take a hit from the VHS thing.

It won't be long before a current year movie will need to make $1 billion in the USA alone in order to break into the adjusted for inflation top 10. I think it's highly unlikely that any future movie will ever break in to the top 20 adjusted for inflation list. As time goes by it is harder and harder for contemporary movies to get high up on that list.

OT, I think Star Wars will disappoint, but like The Hobbit it will make $1 billion because it is what it is. People want to capture the magic of the original Star Wars, but it's not possible because at the time Star Wars was what Avatar was in 2009, a technical breakthrough with enough of a story to keep people interested. Star Wars only has 2 truly good movies, everything else Star Wars related has basically been riding on the back of A New Hope and Empire Strikes Back. 

 

Titanic and E.T. both had very long theatrical runs also.  Titanic was in theaters for 287 days and E.T. was in theaters for 364 days.  That is just their original runs since both where re released E.T. twice and Titanic once.



Michelasso on 17 July 2015
spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:

007 spectre, hunger games, and star wars.


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


The 3 "The Hunger Games" movies have an average of about $760 ml. And this one will be the last movie. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has got $960 ml,  $336 ml more than its previous average ($624 ml).

I'd say The Hunger Games is a safe bet.

Then, yeah... Star Wars. Although I never understood the excitement about that franchise. There are better SciFi movies out there. Also more suited for adults. :D



binary solo on 17 July 2015
Michelasso said:
spurgeonryan said:


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


The 3 "The Hunger Games" movies have an average of about $760 ml. And this one will be the last movie. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has got $960 ml,  $336 ml more than its previous average ($624 ml).

I'd say The Hunger Games is a safe bet.

Then, yeah... Star Wars. Although I never understood the excitement about that franchise. There are better SciFi movies out there. Also more suited for adults. :D

There is one big difference with Hunger Games vs Harry Potter. Deathly Hallows part 1 was the second highest grossing movie behind Sorcerer's Stone (the first movie). Mockingjay Pt 1 grossed 100 million lower than Catching Fire. So Deathly Hallows pt 2 came out when the film series was on the ascendant, again. Mockingjay pt 1 will come out with the series on a slight decline. I'm more inclined to compare Hunger Games performance with Twilight's performance, part 2 will do better than part 1, but not that much better. Probably in the mid to high $800 million, not more than $900 million.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

JamaicameCRAZY on 17 July 2015
binary solo said:
Michelasso said:
spurgeonryan said:


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


The 3 "The Hunger Games" movies have an average of about $760 ml. And this one will be the last movie. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has got $960 ml,  $336 ml more than its previous average ($624 ml).

I'd say The Hunger Games is a safe bet.

Then, yeah... Star Wars. Although I never understood the excitement about that franchise. There are better SciFi movies out there. Also more suited for adults. :D

There is one big difference with Hunger Games vs Harry Potter. Deathly Hallows part 1 was the second highest grossing movie behind Sorcerer's Stone (the first movie). Mockingjay Pt 1 grossed 100 million lower than Catching Fire. So Deathly Hallows pt 2 came out when the film series was on the ascendant, again. Mockingjay pt 1 will come out with the series on a slight decline. I'm more inclined to compare Hunger Games performance with Twilight's performance, part 2 will do better than part 1, but not that much better. Probably in the mid to high $800 million, not more than $900 million.


If the movie is quality then its certainly a possibility. 



EVERY GAMERS WORST NIGHTMARE...THE TANGLING CABLES MONSTER!

            

       Coffee is for closers!

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batgod on 17 July 2015

Both star wars the force awakens and bvs will because both of them have like 6 weeks of 0 competition and they both have a shit ton of hype behind them l



binary solo on 17 July 2015
JamaicameCRAZY said:
binary solo said:
Michelasso said:
spurgeonryan said:


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


The 3 "The Hunger Games" movies have an average of about $760 ml. And this one will be the last movie. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has got $960 ml,  $336 ml more than its previous average ($624 ml).

I'd say The Hunger Games is a safe bet.

Then, yeah... Star Wars. Although I never understood the excitement about that franchise. There are better SciFi movies out there. Also more suited for adults. :D

There is one big difference with Hunger Games vs Harry Potter. Deathly Hallows part 1 was the second highest grossing movie behind Sorcerer's Stone (the first movie). Mockingjay Pt 1 grossed 100 million lower than Catching Fire. So Deathly Hallows pt 2 came out when the film series was on the ascendant, again. Mockingjay pt 1 will come out with the series on a slight decline. I'm more inclined to compare Hunger Games performance with Twilight's performance, part 2 will do better than part 1, but not that much better. Probably in the mid to high $800 million, not more than $900 million.


If the movie is quality then its certainly a possibility. 

I think it will be similar quality to MJ pt 1. Honestly they should never have made pt1 and 2. The source material doesn;t justify it. MJ was the weakest book in the series IMO but they've padded it out in the movies the most.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

ErikaEinhardt on 17 July 2015

Damn, there are a lot more billion contenders still to come this year that I never realised. I was under the impression that Star Wars was the only one with a shot, although tbh I think its more likely looking to break WW top 5 than just $1b



Chris Hu on 17 July 2015
batgod said:
Both star wars the force awakens and bvs will because both of them have like 6 weeks of 0 competition and they both have a shit ton of hype behind them l


I wouldn't say it has that many weeks of zero competition since The Hateful Eight will get its full release on January 8th.  Plus The Revenant should get a wide release in early January also.   Also going by the last three Star Wars movies its pretty easy to say that In the Heart of the Sea will be the best reviewed movie that will be released in December.



kumagawa on 28 October 2015

Well my guess of Mission Impossible: Rogue nation didn't pan out.

I guess at the moment only Star wars is a guarantee of $1 billion+ with Spectre an outlier.