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Post your UK Election 2015 prediction

Forums - Politics Discussion - Post your UK Election 2015 prediction

The UK general election is on the 7th May. Post your prediction for the Parliament vote percentages/seat totals and/or resulting government (e.g. Conservative majority / Labour-Liberal coalition / Labour minority government with SNP support etc.). This election is incredibly close and really lots of outcomes is possible. (You can just predict the parts you feel like). I'd love to see what VGC thinks is going to happen.

Previous (2010) Election results: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

The current government is a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

Current polling: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

The parties on a left-right scale are something like:   Green----PC/SNP----Labour----Liberal Democrat----Conservative----UKIP.

VOTE PERCENTAGES

Conservative: __%
Labour: 
__%
Liberal Democrat: __%
UKIP: __%
Green: __%
(Others): __ 
%

SEAT TOTALS (out of 650) (if you want)

PRIME MINISTER: David Cameron/Ed Miliband/(Other)

GOVERNMENT: _________ majority/minority with coalition or less formal deal with _______



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I'm unfamiliar with UK politics but I'll give it a go.

VOTE PERCENTAGES

Conservative: 33 %
Labour: 36 %
Liberal Democrat: 6 %
UKIP: 15 %
Green: 4 %
(Others): 6 %

PRIME MINISTER: David Cameron/Ed Miliband/(Other)

Have a feeling Labour will barely edge out popular vote, but that doesn't say too much about seats. But that's just my guess, realistically it could go both ways.



Leadified said:

Have a feeling Labour will barely edge out popular vote, but that doesn't say too much about seats. But that's just my guess, realistically it could go both ways.

Those kind of vote percentages would probably produce a Labour majority government. They'd be very happy with that.

My feeling is that there will be a swing back to the current Government very late on (for reasons of inertia), so something like

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 
33%
Liberal Democrat: 10%
UKIP: 10%
Green: 3%

Producing a very weak Labour/SNP/Liberal Democrat/Green/PC arrangement after a lot of fighting. I think there's a good chance of a second election this year.



Hard to copy/paste on PS4 browser, but, I think Lib dems are guaranteed to be in government, they'll just go with whoever has the most seats out of Labour/Conservative. Ed Miliband is a nice guy, but I don't want him as PM. I really can't call ukip, a real unknown/wildcard.



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Conservative: 34%
Labour: 32%
Liberal Democrat: 11%
UKIP: 10%
Green:3%
(Others): 10%

with basicly the same number of seats for both big partys. (with hard fights for labour in the not english parts.)
a pro european coalition will win in the end, even if libdems and labor dont have enough votes, the other partys get some seats and they are mostly pro european. if its realy close i could imagine sinn feine useing their seats to vote against a pro english coalition(they normaly dont use their seats)



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I really wish that Scotland had voted yes now, as I see no alternative other than a minority government, as ultimately I think Labour/SNP are just far too different, and there's already been enough bad blood said about the various parties on the left. The best possible outcome is a Con/Lib/UKIP rainbow coalition, as it would be at least one less party in the coalition, Conservatives and Lib-dems have already shown to be capable to run a country together, and a LOT of the conservative back benchers are of similar mindsets to those in UKIP. The biggest problem is the difference between the Lib-dems and UKIP.

Unfortunately the most likely outcome is going to be a Labour minority government propped up/Rainbow coalition consisting of Labour/SNP/Lib-Dems/Green and maybe even Plaid Cymru, though it all depends on how many seats the Conservatives and UKIP get of the Lib-Dems. I'm hoping that we prove to have a large shy right-wing vote for this election. But I doubt it.

It's all making it very hard to tactically vote :(



Well the exit polls



Those Exit polls are insane. If that happens we'll probably get another Con/Lib coalition.



Exit polls are scary. I don't think this country can handle another conservative government.



Whoever said life to be like a box of chocolates clearly didn't know what he was talking about. 

Life is more like a game of bumper cars. At every turn there is a possibility you will get screwed.

^Especially scary with the 2010 exit poll being almost spot on. No reason to stay whole night up watching BBC livestream to tired X_X.