Looks like you are the one in denial, ps4 is outselling x1 2:1 or more most weeks....if anything when ps4 gets a price drop will get worse for x1...For x1 to gain ground it will need to start outselling ps4 at times, that is not happening, where in the world is MS going to gain ground? US and UK is not enough they are losing there.

Ps4 is itself selling itself, hugh third party support and more games spread out throughout the year, maybe one day you will realise it takes more then halo to outsell a PS system....Thats the only system seller MS has, sony's diversite sells itself.  One day you'll realise third party games matter more then exclusives.

There is something wrong between the 2015 and 2016 years of your graph. So for you the PS4 will reach its peak year in 2015 without having released: UC4, TLOU2 and Gran turismo 7? I find it really hard to believe.

But what about the future price cuts? Imagine when the PS4 will be at 199$ in 2017-18 with UC4 and TLOU2 bundle for instance.

In previous gen we can see that both PS3 and X360 got their best year their 6th or 7th year. But you think PS4 will reach its peak year the 3rd year only even when we know that those consoles have a great potential for future price cuts?

All points to the fact that 2016 will really be the year of PS4 will its major exclusives released this year combined with a price cut. Think about it. PS4 maybe will have a price cut for end of year but the console is still selling at 399$ for most of the year (even if bundled), and without UC, GT or TLOU2.

In summary I find you analysis pretty much wrong on pretty much everything, at the very least wrong on the most important points.

But your graphs are great! ;)

I see a 120-130M PS4 and a 55-70M X1.

No, just...no.

You overestimate the Xone a lot.

Xbox will have a 14 million year, when it hits 200 people are going to go crazy over it. not only that but the game line up will be a lot better. I find it funny people think it can't hit 14. Look at 360 numbers and where it ended up with RROD. This site has become very one sided.

It will hit 14 million easily and come close to it again. I think your numbers are going to be very close. Halo 5 will spawn massive sales this year, everytime a halo launches it does so.  If we get a gears remake, even better. Also we are not seeing all the games they have been working on yet. With phil Spencer at the wheel I think gamers are in for a treat.

I'm getting alot of hate here!

I estimate 30-40 million because it seems fairly obvious to me that the Xbox One will saturate its markets far faster than Playstation will.  

-Japan rejected the X1 completely, and the PS4 only needs Japanese games to start selling well there.  It is already picking up steam there now that a few good ones are out.

-Europe is more of a PS stronghold than it ever was before, and it always was one.  There is room for the X1 to grow a little in the UK but really there is no point in getting one there anymore with how rediculously it is priced.

-In the US the X1 may sell alright but it is becoming clear that Sony is gaining ground, not losing it in the US.

-PS is just in way more markets for better prices.

On top of all of these points keep in mind that the PS4's architecture is just flat out more future-proof and so we can probably expect better support long-term.

Last, the PS4 IS STILL $400 and it is cheaper to produce.  Whenever Sony wants to they can just drop the axe on MS by dropping the price down to $299.