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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - People are underestimating the Xbox One (estimate thread as well).

 

What do you think about these sales estimates

Yes, its spot on! 32 16.24%
 
Could be a bit revised, b... 36 18.27%
 
Not even close... 129 65.48%
 
Total:197

By your logic this gen will sell at max 215 million consoles, just after a 270 million 7th gen, wii did a great work expanding beyond the normal boundaries of gaming users, but gaming its expanding even in the traditional sense, so i expect the 8th gen sell nearly as much as the 7th. I'd say wii u will likely hit the 25 or even surpass it, Xbox one can do the numbers you mention, if MS plays the right cards, PS4 has a real chance in becoming the best console ever in terms of sales but sony need to wise up and keep their s*** together.



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Why do people go by this logic that anyone who wants Halo 5 would already have an xbox One? Simply not true. MCC is a remaster for hardcore fans, its like saying that anyone who wants Zelda Wii U would have bought a Wii U for Hyrule Warriors or Windwaker HD, or suggesting all Final Fantasy fans would have bought Type 0 last week.

For whatever reason people always apply daft logic when speaking on the Xbox, I guess because everyone wants it to fail or can't see past next week. It will peak well above 10m in one year 100%. Will it do 14m in 2016, I'm not sure but neither it or the PS4 are peaking in 2015. Number one thing that people always forget is third party titles are the number 1 sellers of hardware and 2015>> 2014 where next gen is concerned. Cheaper hardware will help too. Xbox hardware boots last Quarter were not due to it being cheaper then it was at launch, it was specifically due to it undercutting PS4, something MS is very likely to repeat if Sony cuts price. When X1 dropped from $500>$400, we saw the longterm effect on sales were very mute in fact it was quickly followed by terrible sales lol

If I was to make a prediction regarding this year it would be that everyone is underestimating the power of a AAA, next gen only, on trend Star Wars FPS game being made by a highly talented studio, releasing alongside whats likely to be the most hyped cinema release of this decade.



Halo will boost sales but no more than the $70 price cut with 2 free games they had last year. Price cuts are the biggest system sellers.

14M in one year? Did the 360 even do that? Might of come close but the X1 is no 360 in terms of sales.

X1 Slim, yes it will increase sales but only in relation to the demand it already has. Plus Slims only sell well because they tend come with a price cut. I can see the X1 hovering around $300 before the slim drops and the slim will have to sell for $250 or less for there to be a boost in sales it already has. Then of course the PS4 will also be having a slimmed version at a cheaper price to it will have to contend with that

The X1 is in a very weak position because its success depends on what Sony do. If Sony resist a price cut again this year then It could sell about the same as last year. If Sony cut the price this holiday (more than likely will) then the X1 will struggle again unless it drops price to sub $300. Basically the X1 has played more cards than PS4 while the PS4 has more to play.

If they do drop price then they are throwing away their cards just to stay competitive with the PS4. What happens when the PS4 finally gets Uncharted, GOW4,Gran Turismo and TLOU2? Sony also have Street Fighter as a permament exclusive.

I also think E3 will be a battleground for 3rd party exclusives and the X1s success might depend on if they can get some major deals and hope Sony aren't willing to spend big bucks on more exclusives.

And why do you think Uncharted was pushed back and delay announced so soon? Probably tactical reasons. Price will more than likely happen this holiday ($350 maybe) and if they released UC4 and had a price cut they are effectively wasting an advantage especially if they can't keep with demand. Splitting the price cut and UC4 up will see strong sales over the holiday with UC4 to help with the strong PS4 sales after the holiday.



SWORDF1SH said:

14M in one year? Did the 360 even do that?

Nope.

The XB360 peak is around 13,500,000... and it have sold 300,000 to 500,000 all NPD of 2011, and nearly 3,500,000 in the US during the holiday...

XBO don't will even close with this number's, for it is hard even 200,000 in a NPD...



You make way too many bets.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
SWORDF1SH said:

14M in one year? Did the 360 even do that?

Nope.

The XB360 peak is around 13,500,000... and it have sold 300,000 to 500,000 all NPD of 2011, and nearly 3,500,000 in the US during the holiday...

XBO don't will even close with this number's, for it is hard even 200,000 in a NPD...

Then I can't see it every getting close to 14M. If it can't do 10M in a year where it had Titanfall (plus bundled in for free), revised package without Kinect to make it cheaper, FH2, MCC and sold $70 cheaper than the PS4 in the holidays and had 2 free games then I don't think it will.

Edit: Wow! The X1 didn't even reach 8M for 2014 according to VGC.



Not gonna happen. xbox 360 in its glory did 84m in 7-8years. In order for the xbox 360 to get there, it ate a lot of marketshare from ps3 in Europe/ROW. Also had Wiimote type peripheral to attract the casuals. This gen, xbox one will be insignificant in Europe/ROW. As you can see, ps4 in killing it in Europe/ROW. Everytime sony gives officlal numbers, they are ahead of what VG chartz is showing. Since there is no Kinect, that mean it will be impossible for xbox one to reach at least 40m. Max 30-35m.

"but xbox one is ahead of xbox 360", yeah I know, it won't be ahead for too long. Xbox 360 first year and a half wasn't good. If people really use this as an excuse that it will reach xbox 360 numbers, they really aren't seeing the big picture.

Edit: I meant 40m in US



super6646 said:
Drazgonow said:

Your right, might be less if PS4 gets a cut and starts doing to X1 in NA what its doing to it in Europe. 


Lol no I mean more. PS4 isn't the perfect machine, it was lucky to face everything it had great in the beginning, but now its not. Hype is dying, and you know it. XB1 will do much more than 10 million, your just in denial

lol yeah, hype is dying, that's what people were saying when xbox one was outselling the ps4 in the holiday.  Once holiday ended, not only ps4 is winning again in US but also ps4 sold 1.7m between Jan and Feb according to Sony sold through numbers of 20.2m.  If I am not mistaken, ps4 sold 1.8m last year when it was on high demand so to be honest i haven't seen yet where the hype had gone down.



"That's a grand total of 70 million. If the gen is a bit shorter, I think it can still do but it'll be harder. Tell me what you think about this, and I'll be putting this in my sig to either be a show off or be a complete fool at the end of the gen. " - quote super6646

Just... no... I dont think Xbox 1 will reach 70mil.

"I can estimate we can do around 10 million in 2015." - quote super6646.

Thats a very optimist prediction of sales.
Even now there are people saying the xbox is overtracked at its current 11 million showing on VGcharts.

I honestly dont see that happending, I think a more realistic prediction would be around 6-7mil, this year.

(probably closer to 6mil than 7).



super6646 said:
Aura7541 said:

Let's see.... Ratchet & Clank, Dragon Quest Heroes, Persona 5, God of War III Remastered, Tearaway Unfolded, Until Dawn, and Final Fantasy X|X-2 HD just from thinking from the top of my head. MLB 15: The Show is preordering well on Amazon right now, too.

Of course, exclusives aren't the only games that can move hardware. MGSV: TPP, for instance, will move more PS4's than XB1's since the series is strongly associated with Playstation.


And how many are system sellers? None.

O_O??

Final Fantasy is a system seller. There are plenty of hardcore FF fans that will buy a consol simply to play the FF games.

The same is true for Persona/Dragon Quest series. Might be niche type games? (ff is kinda big isnt it?) but their are some hardcore fans of those series.