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People are underestimating the Xbox One (estimate thread as well).

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - People are underestimating the Xbox One (estimate thread as well).

What do you think about these sales estimates

Yes, its spot on! 32 16.24%
 
Could be a bit revised, b... 36 18.27%
 
Not even close... 129 65.48%
 
Total:197
Aeolus451 said:
You do realize that the PS4 is beating the xbone by more than 2 to 1 all year so far.

This is completely off topic but you have the creepiest sigs.



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TheGoldenBoy said:
Aeolus451 said:
You do realize that the PS4 is beating the xbone by more than 2 to 1 all year so far.

This is completely off topic but you have the creepiest sigs.


How is it off topic? He was talking about people underestimating the xbone in sales predictions. I simply mentioned that they are on track or overestimating it. Thank you for the compliment about my sigs. haha.



Aeolus451 said:
TheGoldenBoy said:

This is completely off topic but you have the creepiest sigs.


How is it off topic? He was talking about people underestimating the xbone in sales predictions. I simply mentioned that they are on track or overestimating it. Thank you for the compliment about my sigs. haha.

I meant my comment about your sig was completely off topic



TheGoldenBoy said:
Aeolus451 said:


How is it off topic? He was talking about people underestimating the xbone in sales predictions. I simply mentioned that they are on track or overestimating it. Thank you for the compliment about my sigs. haha.

I meant my comment about your sig was completely off topic

 I thought you were talking about my post. haha. 



super6646 said:
Drazgonow said:

Your right, might be less if PS4 gets a cut and starts doing to X1 in NA what its doing to it in Europe. 


Lol no I mean more. PS4 isn't the perfect machine, it was lucky to face everything it had great in the beginning, but now its not. Hype is dying, and you know it. XB1 will do much more than 10 million, your just in denial


Its not but its better then x1 in every way, sales prove it.  it was not luck it was competance of PS team vs the incompetance of xbox team.   Hype is higher then ever due to BB.  

No it wont, deniel of what exactly.   Unless they plan to give em away at value of 100$ in a bundle, it wont.  



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super6646 said:
Aura7541 said:

Let's see.... Ratchet & Clank, Dragon Quest Heroes, Persona 5, God of War III Remastered, Tearaway Unfolded, Until Dawn, and Final Fantasy X|X-2 HD just from thinking from the top of my head. MLB 15: The Show is preordering well on Amazon right now, too.

Of course, exclusives aren't the only games that can move hardware. MGSV: TPP, for instance, will move more PS4's than XB1's since the series is strongly associated with Playstation.


And how many are system sellers? None.


Neither is the 3rd Forza for X1 or the second TRaider or even HAlo.  Any real HAlo fan that would buy a x1 for Halo already got it for HMCC.

So neither has system sellers, issue being PS4 sales it self.  X1 needs to be given away at massive discounts.  



So you left the Ps3 when it started to get better with games And you are leaving gaming because x1 won't sesell as much as you hoped? What is wrong with you man? 

 

I supported Sega through thick and thin until their hardware business died. 

 

I supported the original Xbox cuz it had some amazing games. 

 

I supported the Ps3 cuz it had tons of amazing games. 

 

You support consoles for gaming not sales and gaming is delivered via quality and variety of games not sales and companies being hacked. If companies being jackasses really is a strong principle then you should have never bothered with the Xbox as ms openly said it was just a means for them to get windows into the living room. 

 

Your reasons for leaving gaming I find most peculiar dude 



Whoever said life to be like a box of chocolates clearly didn't know what he was talking about. 

Life is more like a game of bumper cars. At every turn there is a possibility you will get screwed.

I actually think for 2015 the XBO will be at best flat YoY in the U.S. and could be down globally. Here's what VGC has so far for global sales:

According to VGC, the XBO is up about 26.3% YoY so far through the first two months of the year, likely due more to a full international precense that it didn't have last year. However, 2015 won't have the benefit of a major early-year title like 2014 did with Titanfall. It also doesn't have a mid-year launch like what 2014 did in September and the "Tier 2 countries" launch, which in addition to the Destiny boost gave that month a 600k surplus over August. Furthermore, a huge chunk of the XBO's Q4 sales came from the huge price cut-assisted boost in November and December in the U.S. If the PS4 is reduced to $300 this year, then unless MS is willing to risk the losses incurred by reducing the XBO to $250 they won't be able to leverage a lower price tag to drive Q4 sales to where the comprise a proportionally larger-than-normal chunk of the sales for this year. While Halo 5 will be the biggest exclusive by far for the XBO this year, Halo's ability to move hardware is relatively modest, perhaps only 300k globally based on what I can piece together from Halo 3's effect on sales.

After taking into account these variables as well as normal per-quarter sales as a percentage of total yearly sales (typically Q4 is about 50% of total yearly sales, give or take a few percentage points), I calculate a range of 6.5-8 million for 2015. That would bring its lifetime sales to the 17.5-19M range.

Going into the future, the U.S. is going to have the biggest overall influence on global sales as it represents at least 60% of XBO sales. So far, the XBO is up only 7% YoY according to NPD data:

Considering the XBO is currently selling at $350 as opposed to the $500 price tag it had in Q1 last year, that's not very encouraging regarding future growth. While Q2 sales will likely show much more substantial growth, Q3 may be relatively flat from last year as well. As for Q4, the same thing I mentioned earlier applies regarding the PS4's near-certain price drop later this year possibly prohibiting MS from undercutting them this year, which could cause Q4 to be down YoY, and if Q4 is down then so too will the whole year. While Halo 5 may offset possible Q4 drops from last Q4, it may not be by much, maybe a couple hundred thousand. I think 2015 U.S. sales for the XBO will be in the 4-4.5M range, putting it either only slightly up YoY (if Sony only drops the PS4 to $350 and MS counters by dropping the XBO to $300, plus I'm assuming a bonus 150-200k for Halo 5) or down by nearly 10% (if Sony drops the PS4 to $300).

As for 2016 and beyond, MS will almost certainly institute price cuts as soon as it becomes economical to do so. I think a cut to $300 is almost certain this November, though whether it boosts sales by an appreciable amount depends on how much the PS4 drops in price. I think a cut to $250 for the XBO won't happen this year, but it could come some time in mid to late 2016 (possibly concurrent with the launch of a Slim model), which could give sales a strong boost. Incidientally the biggest boost for a price cut for the original Xbox was its third major price cut, which was a modest one issued in March 2004, and the biggest one for the 360 was when the $300 "S" model was released. So, I think 2016 stands a good chance of being up YoY for the XBO from this year, though unlike 2004 we won't be getting a main series Halo game in 2016 (and it's worth pointing out that Reach and Halo 4 had no appreciable affect on sales; most Halo fans likely already bought a 360 for Halo 3 by time Reach came out, and they'll all likely have bought XBOs for Halo 5 well before Halo 6 comes out).

Assuming the PS4 gets a cut to $300 this year, I think this is a plausible sales curve for eighth-gen systems:

The PS4 has its best performance this year, while the XBO narrows the gap in 2016, though it won't be as close as 2014. The XBO won't have a pronounced peak (though 2016 could technically be peak year) but rather do a bit of a zig-zag before tapering off beginning in 2017, while the PS4 has a more typical curve with a second-year peak. I'm assuming their successors launch in 2019, which will cause a rapid drop-off for the aging eighth-gen systems. By the end of 2020 the XBO could be sitting at around 23-24 million units. Assuming the U.S. still represents about 60% of the global total of XBO sales, that puts the XBO at 40 million. This is in line with my projection of 40-45 million global lifetime sales for the system. With Europe being much weaker for MS this generation and the XBO only pulling second place in the U.S., and with nothing that will cause an unusually protracted generation like the seventh generation was, I don't see the XBO doing much more than half of what the 360 did. I think an absolute best-case scenario would see the XBO sell 50 million units lifetime, with up to 30 million of those in the U.S., but I honestly don't see the growth potential to have a noticeable peak. The fact that a 30% reduction in price over the course of a single year has not resulted in significant YoY growth in its best market is a very telling sign of this.



So many people here wishing doom on Xbox.
A 10m+ 2015 is very likely especially if a $300 or even $350 Halo bundle is thrown in the mix. And the same bundle and price in the UK. This is of course helped by Sony not having any system sellers post-Bloodborne.



super6646 said:
TheGoldenBoy said:
Yeah, I don't see the XBO selling 14 million.


Why not, people say PS4 can do 20 million, why can't the XB1 do 14?

Because XBone has little to no "gotta have it" buzz, outside of the US., and even the US numbers are on a steady decline, even with the pricedrops and bundles. We really have no clue what the true XBone sales are at this point, since MS hasn't publicly released any in a while. It can't be a good sign when it hovers between #50-60 on the Amazon hourly charts, quite consistently.