Making this thread based on the somewhat shocking 3DS holiday numbers Nintendo announced today.

The console is at 50.4m shipped LTD having shipped 7.67m in 2014, its 4th full year on the market. That's also down 5.22m YOY! Over 40%. (At the same year in its life DS was UP yoy for reference).

Regardless of New 3DS, it won't be hitting pre 2014 heights again, at best it can hope to achieve parity with last years sales (but with new 3DS already out in Japan) and no idea how it'll fare in Europe and NA in the long run it's hard to say if even that will be the case.

In the same point in its life DS started dropping this year onwards, 09 (15) saw a small ish drop, but then 10 (16) saw a 33%~ drop and then 11 (17) sales dropped like a rock.

A similar scenario for 3DS looks like this.

2014: 50.4m
2015: 58m (7.5m, down a little yoy)
2016: 63m (5m, down 33% yoy) new handheld likely late this year
2017: 65m (2m, down 60% yoy) new handheld definitely out by now
2018 onwards: 66m (1m~)

Forecasts of 81m (PSP's LTD) do not make logical sense at this point. It would require it to be flat for 2015, 2016 AND 2017, and then NOT drop off harshly with the new handheld debuting in that time frame.

Seems it will be some way short. Considering it has had no meaningful competition, it is a concern for dedicated gaming handhelds going forward

I dont thinkanybody expected psp #s (at least the majority) for the past year. That said its still hard to tell because we dont know Nintendo's plans for the N3DS. At worst it will just be an upgraded model and XC only being the exclusive.

Minimum 65mil Shipped.

No more than 70mil looking at current situation.

The possibility is 1% but it dosn't mean 3DS sale are bad because PSP had more support then PSV+3DS support combined

that and the years it was selling in :0

Minimum I'd say is 62m, max definitely 70m.

Outside of launch month I just don't expect any meaningful yoy bump.

Probably won't make it, sad thing is that from now on handhelds will be on a decline generation over generation.

#supportJizz

Never did I even think it was possible for the 3DS to sell less than the PSP. Just goes to show that the PSP was actually a decent success, it only seemed like a failure because of the DS' insane numbers.

I don't think its certain cause we don't know how well the n3ds is going to sell in the west nor do we know how long Nintendo plans to keep the n3ds alive and what other games will be coming out for it.

But it is very likely though

I feel your poll is seducing me to thinking the first choice is the only logical answer.

So I'll say yes, just to go against the flow of the river. Yes, I think the 3DS will outsell the PSP just because.