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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your 2014 LTD sales predictions from last year, time to eat some crow

3DS is definitely my biggest error, going to be off by about 4 million+ when all is said and done. PS4 is under for me, might be off by around 2 million for that in the end. Vita within 1.5 mil, Wii U within 1 million. XBO will either by my closest or off by 1 mil or so. With all things considered, it wasn't horrible a prediction.



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Galahaddy said:
zorg1000 said:
Galahaddy said:
Has there been a thread where people made these predictions but for 2015?


Yes I made one a few days ago

Can you link it please? I'd like to add my own

I tried to but it's not working, just go to the sales forum and it should be on the first page.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Also regarding the 3DS, when the predictions were made the 3DS was 2 million units higher at the end of 2013 than it is now that it was adjusted, so that definitely plays into it being so overestimated.



I am not surprise by the ps4 low prediction. Even Ethomaz who always go beyond for Playstation prediction has it at 19.5 millions. And it might still do more then that.
But I am surprise by the WiiU. Really though it would do better then that



So it looks like fatslob might be the only person that didn't overpredict the 3DS.  Also Zuvuyeay, but I assume that 55.6m wasn't meant for the Xone.  What made people so optimistic at the start of the year?  It was already showing signs of decline in Japan and the US.  Actually I just remembered the 3DS was heavily overtracked at the end of 2013, so that probably plays a factor.  Looking at Seece's thread it has been adjusted down by 2m since then.

EDIT: Looks like DerNebel made this point while I was posting.



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Overestimating Wii U and underestimating PS4 seems to be the big theme in this forum.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Im getting a medal, the only question is, is it gold, silver or bronze. I underestimated the X1 though, didnt see loosing Kinect and also a price drop



Yeah, I was thinking about these predictions too.

It seems I will not end up in a bad position but the 3DS was really a miscalculation of mine, which is natural since I never cared that much about handheld consoles.

Overall, people overestimated 3DS / WiiU and underestimated PS4. Yet, most of predictors chose a lesser number for WiiU than XOne, which doesn't make much sense once back then (and even some months later) half of the website users claimed that WiiU would sell more.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

celador said:
PS4 under-predicted and X1 over as expected.

And 3DS decline was much bigger than the majority predicted

Are you kidding?! XOne was overpredicted??

Average of predictions = 11.73M

Right now = 10.06M

3 more weeks until the end of the year @ ~550k = 1.65M

Expected @ end of the year = 10.06M + 1.65M = 11.71M

This is extremely close to the average prediction. Predictors nailed it!



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Wow my predictions were horrible  

Edit: on second thought I did decent enough with my Xbone prediction.