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Forums - Politics Discussion - The End is Near: We Just Enjoyed the Last Christmas in America

Teeqoz said:

How am I being defensive? Why would I be defensive? What do I have to defend? I suggest you read your own OP. It doesn't make it seem like the thread's purpose is to discuss the global economy when the OP only ever mentions the US, however I pointed out that the problems here are not unique to the US.

It should be quite obvious that common problem for any national economy within the global one is the same -- the US (and EU to a lesser extent), or their debt-driven economies to be more specific, which "grow" at the expense of the rest of the world. He's discussing the source of the problem, the debt, I quote:

"Borrowed money and phony financial legerdemain (mortgage-backed securities, derivatives based on the MBS, etc. etc.) from 2000-2007 created what I have termed a "bogus prosperity": no actual new productive wealth was created, only a brief and self-liquidating bubble of debt-based housing and stock valuations."

Add shale oil to that and many, many more.

That begs the question, why everyone else needs to subsidize the US et al?



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mai said:
Teeqoz said:

How am I being defensive? Why would I be defensive? What do I have to defend? I suggest you read your own OP. It doesn't make it seem like the thread's purpose is to discuss the global economy when the OP only ever mentions the US, however I pointed out that the problems here are not unique to the US.

It should be quite obvious that common problem for any national economy within the global one is the same -- the US (and EU to a lesser extent), or their debt-driven economies to be more specific, which "grow" at the expense of the rest of the world. He's discussing the source of the problem, the debt, I quote:

"Borrowed money and phony financial legerdemain (mortgage-backed securities, derivatives based on the MBS, etc. etc.) from 2000-2007 created what I have termed a "bogus prosperity": no actual new productive wealth was created, only a brief and self-liquidating bubble of debt-based housing and stock valuations."

Add shale oil to that and many, many more.

That begs the question, why everyone else needs to subsidize the US et al?


Notice that tripling of profits from 2000-2013? Yeah, stock valuations and real-estate prices aren't the only thing on the rise. The money corporations are making is as well. Now, I think it's only reasonable to say that if a company makes more money, then their stocks will be worth more as well, don't you think? And that certainly qualifies as productive wealth (the profit US companies make).




0815user said:
global negative interest rate on all savings above a certain volume per person/company + global minimum wage. problem solved.

What interest rate did you mean specifically? Not quite getting the "global" part, Fed's refinancing interest rate? Deposits? All of them?

If the former, that'd mean "free" money for commercial banks, effectively Fed is lending its money-printing machine to everyone else. After few rounds of QE, it should be clear that won't fix anything.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/business/switzerland-central-bank-interest-rate.html?_r=0&referrer=

like this but globally. the thing is, there is enough capital in the world. problem is though, it's always there where conditons are good, mostly doing nothing or waiting for a riskless opportunity to create more money. this needs to be fixed. 



mai said:

Here is real median household income and labor's share of the economy: both are in structural decline, and inflating asset bubbles has done nothing to reverse either trend.

Real Meadian Household Income just started rising if IIRC, so things are looking a bit more positive than the last 3 years at least.

Curious, what quintile VGCharterz fall into?  I'm in the top quintile, but I live in an expensive part of the US.



My 8th gen collection

Last Christmas my ass! People will be dirt poor and still crush Walmart greeters on Black Friday. Remember when gas prices were supposed to be headed to $5 and $6 ranges? Now they're the lowest they've been in almost 5 years. Yeah, alarmist bullsh!t indeed!



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well the system was doomed to fail from the beginning

set up in such a way that there is an ever increasing mountain of debt that can never be paid off

using money that has no real value instead of money backed with precious metals

other countries have long acknowledged this and have tried to get out of using us currency... that is what the middle eastern wars are about

first it was iraq trying to establish gold base currency

also lybia was trying to set up gold based currency that they called the dinar

there's also iran who have been trying to do the same... this is why they've been trying so hard to get at iran...

what's interesting is that because the priesthood has been employing spiritual alchemy against the population most people do not care... they view muslims in the middle east as backwards, primative and ultimately less important so their deaths don't really matter; they refuse to consider that perhaps the war of terror is bullshit and above all they refuse to believe that they are being manipulated which is evidently the worst part of it

it may be a little premature to say that the conclusion is going to be arriving so soon but its definitely on its way and perhaps its what the people deserve for allowing it to happen



mai said:
Those "saves from stagnation" were one-offs; there will be no more supergiant energy finds, nor any equivalents of the Internet expansion cycle.


Erm Fracking anybody? There's a reason why gas prices are plummeting, and should this continue/remain at current prices for a couple of years, that's an instant boom to the world economy as costs have similarily plummeted for everybody, coupled with Europe's push for 'clean' energy reducing the need for oil and gas, things are looking really good on the energy front for everybody. 

The next boom will come when the new wave of nuclear happens (sadly most likely spearheaded by China) and energy costs effective become construction + decomission cost/time frame of plant with fuel being almost free, and maintenance + wages being the only yearly cost.

Ultimately things look shit for both the EU and America as the rest of the world want to fuck the dollar off and half the EU is being oppressed by a courency far far too expensive for their economies, whilst the other half have to prop up these countries, as the european elite are so obsessed at making USE work.



It's all a big F'ing mess.



Teeqoz said:
RenCutypoison said:
Teeqoz said:
US is certainly not the only country in economic trouble. China's rapid growth has stopped (and their real-estate bubble is way worse than the US' bubble!), Russia's economy is quickly going down the crapper etc.


Russia and China are pretty unique situation, whereas US is using the same strategy as Japan in the 90's (aka using all the cash to create employement) so we know where this is going.


Russia's situation is unique? Inflation and stock market collapse is unique?

 

But you really can't compare the US to Japan. it really doesn't work that way. Besides, are you aware that the federal deficit of the US is decreasing? Meaning that they're starting to slowly but surely get their shit straight.

You have 100% debt, russia has 13%, china has 20%. russia is in unique position because their crisis is triggered by us and saudi arabia. America isnt influenced by anyone yet they still fail or can fail.



Teeqoz said:
US is certainly not the only country in economic trouble. China's rapid growth has stopped (and their real-estate bubble is way worse than the US' bubble!), Russia's economy is quickly going down the crapper etc.


chinas is growing at 7.2% and have interests rates 3 times as much as their inflation, they are doing everything right. Compare that to western countries.