Analysis
In 2 months everything will change. Nintendo is doing well now because of a strong roster of October/November releases, and because of Zelda/XenoBlade, but once Smash Bros, Pokemon and Bayonetta 2 leave the list, those votes will spread. I expect PS4 to gain popularity over the next few months as Bloodborne, The Order 1886 and The Witcher 3 come closer to release in February.
A more in depth analysis is below.
Extended Analysis
| Platform |
October (%) |
September (%) |
Change (%) |
| WiiU |
39.8 |
32 |
+7.8 |
| PS4 |
31.4 |
27.4 |
+4 |
| 3DS |
11.8 |
7.8 |
+4 |
| XB1 |
8.1 |
10.4 |
-2.3 |
| PC |
4.4 |
7 |
-2.6 |
| Vita |
3.2 |
8.9 |
-5.7 |
| PS3 |
1.2 |
6.4 |
-5.2 |
| X360 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
Nintendo has the strongest exclusive lineup this fall (at least for us) and it shows. With stuff like smash Bros and Bayonetta 2 releasing soon for the WiiU, and with Zelda & XenoBlade giving a lot of points too, no wonder WiiU is ahead. However because a large chunk of Nintendo's vote belongs to Smash Bros & a bit to Bayonetta and Pokemon, expect WiiU/3DS shares to shrink after next month. For next month, 3DS should drop hard, but WiiU should hold strong, and maybe even grow.
Sony's vote marks a transition with Persona 5. As you can see PS3 seeing a huge drop, and PS4 gains most of it back. This is because Persona 5 was announced for PS4 last month, so most people switched their votes. Vita also dropped hard with the release of Danganroppa last month. Plus a lot of the Vita voters just didn't vote last month. Not one person voted for Freedom Wars or Oreshika, and they lead last month.
XB1 went down because of the release of Forza & Destiny. Expect more drops after October with the release of Sunset Overdrive and Halo MCC. Some votes will move over to Quantum Break and Halo 5, but I think most votes will go multi-platform. As for the older X360, don't expect it to return, this should be the last time we see it (unless someone votes for a multi-console game on 360).
| Platform |
October (%) |
September (%) |
Change (%) |
| Nintendo |
48.3 |
36.3 |
+12 |
| Sony |
11.4 |
14.6 |
-3.2 |
| Microsoft |
5.8 |
9.9 |
-4.1 |
Nintendo.....jumped, by a lot. Smash Bros for WiiU & Zelda each grew by 50 votes last month (50% & 70% respectively). XenoBlade grew by about 20 votes (35%), Smash Bros for 3DS doubled in votes, and Pokemon also grew by 50% as well. The hype for Nintendo games over the next 2 months is crazy accoring to VGC, but this is also a cause for concern. The next biggest game for 3DS after November is XenoBlade Chronicles, which only saw 8 points in this Most Wanted. WiiU will be okay with Zelda and XenoBlade likely to grow further, but still.
With Sony, I expect them to grow as February approaches with Bloodborne, Witcher 3, and The Order all releasing around that time. The hype for Uncharted and other PS4 games should also grow too. As for Vita, I don't know what to expect, Tales of Hearts and Hotline Miami both release in 2014, but then Freedom Wars and Oreshika could help boost sales.
As for Microsoft, I expect a large drop over the next 2 months with Halo and Sunset Overdrive releasing, but then a slight growth after February with The Witcher 3.
However with most of the big games releasing in the next couple months, I expect to see a few game announcements (Nintendo Direct? Spike VGA's? etc). Anything can happen.
| Genre |
October (%) |
September (%) |
Change(%) |
| Action-Adventure |
25.3 |
21.2 |
+4.1 |
| JRPG |
21.3 |
23 |
-1.7 |
| Fighting |
17.4 |
11.2 |
+6.2 |
| Shooter |
11.3 |
14 |
-2.7 |
| WRPG |
6.5 |
5.5 |
+1 |
| Action |
5.2 |
7.8 |
-2.6 |
| Horror |
3.7 |
3.3 |
+0.4 |
| Platformer |
2.9 |
1.5 |
+1.4 |
| Racing |
1.9 |
- |
- |
| Strategy |
1.3 |
- |
- |
| Simulation |
0.2 |
- |
- |
Without going too in depth here, we should expect a small drop in the fighting genre next month, and a huge crash the one after with Smash Bros releasing. Action will likely disappear with Bayonetta 2 gone, but JRPG and WRPG should grow with more votes going to XenoBlade, Bloodborne, and The Witcher.
The last 3 genres have no change because they were newly added for the October Results.
Funny Facts-No Mans Sky had a decent 9 points last month, but 0 this month. Same with Freedom Wars (14) and Oreshika (10) for Vita, they all have 0 this month.
-Smash Bros is no longer the only fighter with 2x Tekken and a Guilty Gear on the list. However it's still ~95-96% of the fighting genre.
Suggestions?
Please share. I was thinking about making an RPG (Japanese & Western) list like we have a dedicated one for Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft.
What other genres & publishers should I single out on the pie charts? Anything else you want to see?
BTW If Salnax doesn't mind, I would like to take over this part of VGC. I joined for Most Wanted, and maybe under my control I can make it big again. My spreadsheet is almost completely automatic now (just have to use a sort function and edit for new entries).
