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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Tracking vs. Reality (PS4)

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What do you think about VGChartz tracking of the PS4?

3M+ overtracked 44 6.89%
 
2M+ overtracked 15 2.35%
 
1M+ overtracked 38 5.95%
 
Spot on! 53 8.29%
 
1M+ undertracked 300 46.95%
 
2M+ undertracked 37 5.79%
 
3M+ undertracked 39 6.10%
 
Who cares? 47 7.36%
 
I do care, but won't vote. 44 6.89%
 
TL;DR 21 3.29%
 
Total:638
wary-wallaroo on 01 October 2014
BraLoD said:
Aura7541 said:
BraLoD said:
Aura7541 said:
I'm very curious to see how off VGC is going to be when Sony announces that they sold 15 million PS4s.


By when do you expect it to be announced? I mean, Sony official 15M report.

I would say after Black Friday.


When does Black Friday happens in USA? In late November?


Last weekend of Nov. I think the PS4 should easily be at around 11.7ish million by now. It'll hit 12.5-12.7 by the end of Oct. I think it'll sell at least 2.5 million in Nov so that would put it at around 15 million. Then another 2 million in Dec. For a total of 17.

 

I could see it doing more though, if supply allows. Last year supply really limited it's potential. This year, ut should not



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JustBeingReal on 01 October 2014

Is there any information about when Sony started manufacturing PS4's, like the exact week last year?
Any info on monthly shipments, besides the 1 million a month they were putting out in the run up to launch?

Would it be logical to assume that Sony would increase monthly shipments during 2014 to meet demand later in the year?



COX on 02 October 2014
ioi said:

Listen, let's get straight to the point here - you feel that PS4 is currently undertracked and that is the whole motive of this thread - not to "help the site grow" or because you're a great guy trying to help or anything else! If your "analysis" showed that PS4 was being overtracked then this thread wouldn't exist!

I, on the other hand, as the person responsible for producing the estimates am happy with our current PS4 figure and believe that it is an accurate representation of how many have been sold at this point (to the nearest few percent). This is based on a lot more data than you guys ever get to see and the fact that the formulae we use to estimate sales in unknown regions has already been adjusted up significantly which will apply not only to historical data but also current data. This is why your fundamental argument of "PS4 has been undertracked previously so it MUST still be being undertracked now" doesn't hold up.

The fundamental thing that I can see us coming back to here is "Sony announced ____m as of ____" and the assertion that it must therefore be a fact. I have been doing this long enough that I don't take a single statement from one source as a fact - especially from a manufacturer who has every reason to make a figure look as impressive as possible - 1m is normaly 950k rounded up and so on and this is true of all manufacturers. Please be assured that we are doing all we can to ensure that our data is as accurate as possible, taking a number of factors into account, and threads like this aren't helping anybody.

It seems that when Microsoft announed recently the sales for the 360 your policy was different. Despite the fact that they were not as clear as Sony about their numbers.  If some months ago the Ps4 was undertracked by a large margin in USA by Vgchartz (territory where you have more data) How can we believe the numbers for markets like Asia/Africa/Europe.  You are almost saying that Sony is lying but you don't seem to have enough data for such accusations. 

Without NPD post adjustements your numbers for USA would be awful now. So what is the real situation for countries in Europe/Africa/Asia ?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=181828

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=180004

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=186919



Aerys on 02 October 2014

No wonder why neogaf doesnt take VGC seriously



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Cobretti2 on 02 October 2014

Interesting observation - majority of the posters who are upset about the data quality here are the late comers to the site who seem not to have learned that this site is just pure estimates for us gamers to enjoy and have a "rough" idea how things are tracking.

Relax and enjoy the company of the people and not worry about getting the number 100% spot on. Things will always get adjusted when concrete evidence is provided..



 

 

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KazumaKiryu on 02 October 2014

1M+ undertracked, i think.



bluemd on 02 October 2014
ioi said:
BraLoD said:

Because I want to keep a track of VGC tracking, without external data provided after it was made.
I have said nothing about how VGChartz works in the thread, it's only here to compare the numbers that are showed in the front page and the real outcome of that with reality.

There is nothing more to try to get out of this thread, it's about what it claims to be:
Compare the numbers first given by VGC with official reports.

If you are seeing this thread as some sort of attack, I'm sorry but you are already coming here with the intent to do so.

I'm comparing all the data and the data between reports too, that if you read the OP you saw (and you know as you did collected those numbers xD) that the undertracks were not constant, they happened in basically 2 periods between reports and the rest was tracked about right here.

Data should only help, not be taken as a attack as I have absolutely no intent or reason do to it.

Some health conclusions you could have taken of the thread was:
-We had 7 official reports made by Sony, which 4 were tracked correctly and 3 were undertracked here, one by 200K, one by 400K and one by 700K.
-When did this undertracks happened and why did they happened?
-How reliable is the data showed here weekly when it comes out, without it being adjusted afterwards? What do people think about it?
-How can I use this data to help the site to grow better?
-Why do someone cares about collecting it and others about analising it and taking their time to chat about it? Does this prove that the site is still actively accessed by people who do care about it? What can I do to keep the users being productive to the site as they provide a free source of data and considerations about it to me?

That's something you could come up to instead of trying to take the thread as some sort of attack or "inane rambling" made by some random forum user.

Think about it :)

Listen, let's get straight to the point here - you feel that PS4 is currently undertracked and that is the whole motive of this thread - not to "help the site grow" or because you're a great guy trying to help or anything else! If your "analysis" showed that PS4 was being overtracked then this thread wouldn't exist!

I, on the other hand, as the person responsible for producing the estimates am happy with our current PS4 figure and believe that it is an accurate representation of how many have been sold at this point (to the nearest few percent). This is based on a lot more data than you guys ever get to see and the fact that the formulae we use to estimate sales in unknown regions has already been adjusted up significantly which will apply not only to historical data but also current data. This is why your fundamental argument of "PS4 has been undertracked previously so it MUST still be being undertracked now" doesn't hold up.

The fundamental thing that I can see us coming back to here is "Sony announced ____m as of ____" and the assertion that it must therefore be a fact. I have been doing this long enough that I don't take a single statement from one source as a fact - especially from a manufacturer who has every reason to make a figure look as impressive as possible - 1m is normaly 950k rounded up and so on and this is true of all manufacturers. Please be assured that we are doing all we can to ensure that our data is as accurate as possible, taking a number of factors into account, and threads like this aren't helping anybody.

I don't see how a detailed and informative post can damage vgchartz reputation. Only people seeing this kind of posts are vgchartz forumers, and these threads generate traffic and money for vgchartz, because they are the only reason a lot of people comes here. 



CosmicSex on 02 October 2014
ioi said:
KazumaKiryu said:
1M+ undertracked, i think.

I think 2m at least


At least you have a sense of humor about it.  Out of curiosity, what margin of error are you comfortable with?



whiteknight101 on 02 October 2014

The US Weekly numbers for week ending in the 20th look pretty fishy. Here's why.

We have Destiny for PS4 selling 182,904.
We have PS4 hardware sales at 60,026.

Assume that for this week, hardware sales break down 20000 PS4 black standalone sold, 40000 PS4 White Destiny bundle sold.

With these assumptions, we get that Destiny for PS4 game should have outsold the White PS4 Destiny bundle 3,5:1

But that seems completely at odds with the Amazon rankings for Destiny 2nd week, where the bundle was always in the top 10. Right now, the bundle is ranked much much higher than the standalone game in fact.

(Edit: fixed ratio)



BMaker11 on 02 October 2014
ioi said:

The fundamental thing that I can see us coming back to here is "Sony announced ____m as of ____" and the assertion that it must therefore be a fact. I have been doing this long enough that I don't take a single statement from one source as a fact - especially from a manufacturer who has every reason to make a figure look as impressive as possible - 1m is normaly 950k rounded up and so on and this is true of all manufacturers. Please be assured that we are doing all we can to ensure that our data is as accurate as possible, taking a number of factors into account, and threads like this aren't helping anybody.

I, personally, am a little skeptical of this. And I understand why others are upset at the apparent mistreatment of PS numbers, while Xbox numbers are boosted. Example: here is a June 1st screenshot of VGC

Then, here are is June 14th screenshot, 5 days after MSs E3 conference and 84M sold announcement

You've adamantly defended how you come up with your numbers....yet only 5 days after the 84M announcement (maybe before. Numbers were still the same on the 10th, but there was no other screenshot til the 14th) and only one source (Microsoft) talking about it, you adjusted the 360 by a whopping 1.6M. You didn't take the 4M as fact....but that "single statement from one source" sure did make you change your tune rather quickly.

Fast forward to Gamescom, and Sony announces 10M sold, with extra emphasis on it being sold through to consumer (whereas the MS announcement of 84M had no clarification). VGC had PS4 at 9.3M. You guys didn't adjust PS4 to 9.9M for 2 whole weeks! And that was with the addition of a 120K week after the announcement. So while a "single statement from one source" made you bump 360 by 1.6M in 5 days (perhaps less), the same qualification made you take 2 weeks to adjust by < 500K? It's things like that that make users think you have an Xbox bias, despite things like "selling well in countries that are hard to track = undertracking", which makes sense.

Just looking for a little consistency, even if this site is meant to be rough estimates and nothing more.