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Forums - Sales Discussion - bold prediciton: xb1 version of destiny will be shown ahead of ps4 version for september nps (possibly)

Personally, I don't get the point of this comparison. A few 100K would be taken off the PS4 numbers due to the bundle, so that doesn't really make it a fair battle. Though, it would be hilarious if the PS4 version still came out on top.

Also, while the numbers will only reflect the copies not sold in a bundle, NPD still tracks those bundles sold. That's how we knew that PS4 Madden beat XBO Madden, even WITH the bundle included. Now, if XBO can pull off that kind of victory, THAT is what would be impressive.



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prinz_valium said:

2 month istnt a tred?

what else would be a trend?

 

3 and 4 months ago there were way less destiny xb1 preoders and interest

since july, for 2 month in a row, it outsold its ps4 pendant.

right now its in front on hourly chart since 4 days

 

the yearly chart gap is closing form 4 places between them to zero right now

 

 

thats the perfect definition of a trend

It isn't really a trend when you consider that the PS4 is winning this month.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-09/videogames/#1

1 place splits them for the year and for this month but that 1 place could represent  a lot of sales that high up the charts.

The hourly sales are to fickle to use.

That is not to say that the X1 Destiny can beat the PS4's. It's a possibility but my money is on the PS4 because it has 3 major factors in it's favor. Install base, Amazon ranking indicate a win for the PS4 and the exclusive ads for the PS4. But it all depends how many the bundle takes up. Could give the win to the X1.



No way will the XOne version be ahead. A combination of the install base, the advertising and pre-orders suggests that it won't even be close. Amazon doesn't mean a whole lot.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
No way will the XOne version be ahead. A combination of the install base, the advertising and pre-orders suggests that it won't even be close. Amazon doesn't mean a whole lot.

I think the whole Madden bundle shows us the trouble MS are having against Sony, they have thrown alot at them so far and still havent come out on top.

The other issue for MS right now is the bundle stuff runs out today, what about the rest of the month....that could still mean alot of sales. I would think that MS giving away two games at times with their console wouldnt suggest they did that because they were doing well, but were doing very badly.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

No I don't think so. This game will sell way better on the PS4.



    

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fist week breakdown in the uk:

ps4: 46%
xb1: 36%
360: 14%
ps3: 4%



that ratio includes hardware bundles.
and the gap between ps4 and xb1 is much bigger in the uk

uk 33% install base gap
us 19% install base gap

edit: and ofc higher attachrate on xb1 than ps4

my prediction will become true :)



prinz_valium said:

fist week breakdown in the uk:

ps4: 46%
xb1: 36%
360: 14%
ps3: 4%



that ratio includes hardware bundles.
and the gap between ps4 and xb1 is much bigger in the uk

uk 33% install base gap
us 19% install base gap

edit: and ofc higher attachrate on xb1 than ps4

my prediction will become true :)

No it wont... just because the PS4 version will stay higher and longer in the charts than the XBO version, like nearly all other PS4 games.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

prinz_valium said:

fist week breakdown in the uk:

ps4: 46%
xb1: 36%
360: 14%
ps3: 4%



that ratio includes hardware bundles.
and the gap between ps4 and xb1 is much bigger in the uk

uk 33% install base gap
us 19% install base gap

edit: and ofc higher attachrate on xb1 than ps4

my prediction will become true :)

Just to prove to you that the hourly sales are fickle, PS4 Destiny is now ahead and is still winning for September so far. http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=sv_vg_12

But if that UK data is correct and includes the bundles then we might see a narrow win for the X1 in the USA without bundles. Amazon has the PS4 winning but thats only a sample of the entire gaming market.



whiteknight101 said:
Might be, but we should probably wait until next week.

OP is making his prediction partly by looking on current Amazon rankings, but keep in mind that today is last day of "buy XBox One and get any game (including Destiny) for free".

In other words, if the XBox One version of Destiny is still ranking above the PS4 standalone version by Tuesday, then the prediction looks good, but if the PS4 standalone is back on top by then, then what we've seen lately is sales driven by a very good deal (potentially two games for free).

As of now, the PS4 bundle is at #5, the PS4 standalone at #6 and the XBox One version down at #9. It's still possible the XBox One version will sell more than the PS4 standalone for whatever reason. But what we saw this weekend on Amazon was most likely skewed by it being the last chance to profit from the "buy XBox One and get 1-2 games free" offer, causing a temporary boost for XBox One on Amazon.



Deserve a bump imho

I was right with 35:31% standalone and even including the ps4 bundle, ps4 only moved ~100k units more