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Forums - Sales Discussion - bold prediciton: xb1 version of destiny will be shown ahead of ps4 version for september nps (possibly)

before u guys all freak out, note this:

i said showed and npd doenst count games bundled with hardware

 

what makes me think so? several points:

amazon rankings --> xb1 standalone wins july and august. is ahed of ps4 verison on the houry chart and climbes for the yearly form #14 ps4 vs #17 xb1 to #14 ps4 and #15 xb1

xbox one had no big software sales after titanfall, while ps4 had watch dogs and tlofu remake. xb1 attachrate right now 3.2 while ps4 has 2.9. but the ps4 attachrate was growing over the last month, while the xb1 attachrate only by a very slow pace

xbox one is still a schooter console with many (scifi) shooter and bungie game fans.

destiy for xb1 got a beta, and beside the exclusive ps4 marketing deal, this game is heavily promoted by microsoft.

the fragrance. the free one game promotion. on every big gamingshow phil mentioned destiny as a big blogbuster coming to xb1

 

the ps4 bundle:

right now its even ahead of the titanfall bundle on amazon rankings. if they're reliable, this bundle is at over 300k+ units.

so xb1 can sell 300k less overall units, but will still be shown ahead for npd

 

the ps4:xb1 gap is at only 730k units for the usa.

so without the bundle sales, the xbox one dont even need higher attachrate, to sell more games than the ps4

1m xb1 sales --> 3207 + (~300k) =3.5m installbase --> 28,5% attachrate

1.3m ps4 sales --> 3944 +(~500k) = 4.45m installbase --> 29,2% attachrate

( ) sales are a guess. rest is npd data

and as more white ps4 destiny bundels will be sold, the more likely this could come ture

 

 

this is just a 50:50 chance could happen prediction.

so pls dont shout it out at me, if im wrong.



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The only place there may be a faint chance of it happening is the US - globally....not a chance.



Could be a close call.It's still one place ahead of X1 on amazon.



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Jumpinbeans said:
The only place there may be a faint chance of it happening is the US - globally....not a chance.


ofc. and thats what this thread is about.

npd sales = us



Perhaps. But you underestimate the PlayStation fans who want to play a bungie game.



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And here I thought Destiny wasn't going to move any Xbox hardware....... jk I knew it would and probably a good amount of it. 

Edit: Yeah the Xbone version has a chance at being ahead of the PS4 version but I'm still going to take theh PS4 version selling more simply because PS4 has 2x the install base of XBone.



If it does move more on X1 it kind of disproves that a huge amount of core gamers are still on 360 'waiting' to get an X1. I think PS4 will edge it, just. 



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If you're talking about the USA, it could be close. If you're using Amazon data use the data for the whole year. It shows that the PS4 is ahead slightly. PS4 at #13 - X1 at #14. This shows that it could be close but also shows the PS4 has the edge.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1



SWORDF1SH said:

If you're talking about the USA, it could be close. If you're using Amazon data use the data for the whole year. It shows that the PS4 is ahead slightly. PS4 at #13 - X1 at #14. This shows that it could be close but also shows the PS4 has the edge.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1


did u read the op?

i already used that.

and i use as many data as possible.

 

so hourly chart + monthly chart + yearly chart + the change over time

 

 

sometimes in july. i dont remember correctly:

ps4 #19

xb1 #23

 

end of august the rankigs was this: 

ps4 #19

xb1 #21

 

launch day it was this:

ps4 #14

xb1 #17

 

right now its this:

ps4 #14

xb1 #15



beeje13 said:

If it does move more on X1 it kind of disproves that a huge amount of core gamers are still on 360 'waiting' to get an X1. I think PS4 will edge it, just. 


I'm a core gamer and Destiny in no way, shape or form would lead to me buying a next gen console. Wait until MCC and the next COD for that disapproval.