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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Xbox One Way Past 6 million by the End of September

Dark_Feanor on 18 August 2014
Alderanex said:

3.2 million in November (four times October) is more than XB1 will sell in Nov+Dec combined, possibly even Q4 (see above) 2 million in Dec is still too high given that sales will decline by 60-80 percent the week after Xmas. As noted in the other toastboy (Xbone One tier 2..) thread, Nov and Dec can be million-sales-months for XB1, but more like 1-1.4 and .8-1.2 millions, respectively .

(PS4 though, might reach 3.2/2 million or more in Nov/Dec, by Sony's GC numbers (10 mio) it will be about 7 mio YTD through Sep and thus sell around that or more for Q4, that would mean 18+ LTD through 2014).

 

Xbox 360 FY Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr Ap-Jn FY LTD 2005/06 - 1.5 1.7 1.8 5.0 5.0 2006/07 1.0 4.4 0.5 0.7 6.6 11.6 2007/08 1.8 4.3 1.3 1.3 8.7 20.3 2008/09 2.2 6.0 1.7 1.2 11.2 31.5 2009/10 2.1 5.2 1.5 1.5 10.3 41.8 2010/11 2.8 6.3 2.7 1.7 13.7 55.3 2011/12 2.3 8.2 1.4 1.1 13.0 68.3 2012/13 1.7 5.9 1.3 1.0 9.9 78.2 2013/14 1.2 3.5 0.8 ??? 5.5 83.7

If we give that the Xone shipped about 800k last quarter it puts sales on track of the 360 2006/2007.

That gave the next quarters 1.8mi and 4.4mi. 2006 was a particular low year for the 360 but the pattern show aways a signficant increase in from Q4 to Q1 and Q2.

So, unless the Xone is realy dying, or putting a WiiU it will easealy ship another 2mi units and 4.5mi for Q1 and Q2.

And lets give again Microsoft the odd custom of having 1mi units at the shelves at any given time.

That is still +11mi sold for +12mi shipped. Once more at the worst case scenario the XOne will have sold 11mi consoles by the end of this year.

Source: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=859945



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Bokal on 18 August 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
Alderanex said:

3.2 million in November (four times October) is more than XB1 will sell in Nov+Dec combined, possibly even Q4 (see above) 2 million in Dec is still too high given that sales will decline by 60-80 percent the week after Xmas. As noted in the other toastboy (Xbone One tier 2..) thread, Nov and Dec can be million-sales-months for XB1, but more like 1-1.4 and .8-1.2 millions, respectively .

(PS4 though, might reach 3.2/2 million or more in Nov/Dec, by Sony's GC numbers (10 mio) it will be about 7 mio YTD through Sep and thus sell around that or more for Q4, that would mean 18+ LTD through 2014).

 

Xbox 360 FY Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr Ap-Jn FY LTD 2005/06 - 1.5 1.7 1.8 5.0 5.0 2006/07 1.0 4.4 0.5 0.7 6.6 11.6 2007/08 1.8 4.3 1.3 1.3 8.7 20.3 2008/09 2.2 6.0 1.7 1.2 11.2 31.5 2009/10 2.1 5.2 1.5 1.5 10.3 41.8 2010/11 2.8 6.3 2.7 1.7 13.7 55.3 2011/12 2.3 8.2 1.4 1.1 13.0 68.3 2012/13 1.7 5.9 1.3 1.0 9.9 78.2 2013/14 1.2 3.5 0.8 ??? 5.5 83.7

If we give that the Xone shipped about 800k last quarter it puts sales on track of the 360 2006/2007.

That gave the next quarters 1.8mi and 4.4mi. 2006 was a particular low year for the 360 but the pattern show aways a signficant increase in from Q4 to Q1 and Q2.

So, unless the Xone is realy dying, or putting a WiiU it will easealy ship another 2mi units and 4.5mi for Q1 and Q2.

And lets give again Microsoft the odd custom of having 1mi units at the shelves at any given time.

That is still +11mi sold for +12mi shipped. Once more at the worst case scenario the XOne will have sold 11mi consoles by the end of this year.

Source: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=859945


2006 without PS3 out in Europe, and not for very long in the US and Japan. Competition was very different. This year, the demand for XB1 is much lower than the demand for the competition. It really can't be looked as a reference.



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bubblegamer on 18 August 2014

Sounds logical. The 12 million by years end doesn't though. That's too much!



2Ultra on 18 August 2014

Xbox One has been lagging behind lately. Assuming it starts destroying PS4 every week, it can get about 3 million more sales this year (and crush the PS4 every week from now on). I say it gets to 9.5 million at most this year, assuming sales pick up in a big way.  It is still a great system, but PS4 got them out of the gate and is probably going to be 20 million by summer of next year if not sooner.



Dark_Feanor on 18 August 2014
Bokal said:
Dark_Feanor said:


2006 without PS3 out in Europe, and not for very long in the US and Japan. Competition was very different. This year, the demand for XB1 is much lower than the demand for the competition. It really can't be looked as a reference.


Anything could happen.

I just think it´s more likely that the sales pattern for the Xone remains the same. 

I can´t see the reason Xone sales droping like a rock the next 2 quarters, with all the extra work Microsoft did with bundles AND a $100 cheaper SKU.

And even with the PS3 at its prime with Uncharted  2 and the 3RLoD damaging  the 360, it still pulled 11mi a year(fiscal).

The worst 360 year was 2007 (calendar) with 7.3mi shipped. If the Xone do as low as that this year it still beating the 10.5 mark.

PS: I will give that Halo 3 launched in September 2007, so, may be the XOne won´t bet the 2mi mark shipped this quarter.



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BeElite on 18 August 2014
Welfare said:

If Amazon (US) is anything to go by, Destiny PS4 and XONE are pretty close to each other. Destiny is going to be a big push for the Xbox One (but not as big as the White PS4 bundle), and probably the truest test to see if most 360 users are converting to PS4. With the Madden Bundle in the US, and the Fifa 15 and Fifa 15/Forza bundle in Europe, and any extra sales from Japan, 6 million is guaranteed.


You get thet those Destiny sales are the hardcore, the ones that already own the consoles more then likely.  Big sales will be the more core casual, the ones that will buy based on advertisment.  And from what everyone says it will be Destiny/Sony ads.  

For it to do 6m it would basiaclly have to do TF like numbers for both months, so +300k NDPs for Aug and Sept.   It did 131k july ndp.  



BeElite on 18 August 2014
shikamaru317 said:
Rinzler said:

I dont' think xbox one will hit the 6 million by September, even with international console releases.  My guess is that they will finish the year out around or just above 7 million.

I think that's the lowest end of 2014 Xbox One prediction I've ever seen on this site. It would take a Wii U 2013 Holiday season for Xbox One to sell that little in 2014, and Wii U only sold that low last year due to a lack of games, a problem which the Xbox One doesn't have this Holiday season.


Nope but it has a much bigger problem, the PS4.



NobleTeam360 on 18 August 2014
toastboy44562 said:
CDiablo said:

Possible, but Destiny wont make people buy X1's as its pretty much the same on X360. PS4 has the bundle and the shit version(except free online which makes it the best version) on PS3.


I still think Destiny will push 100-200k Xbox One units but more PS4 units because of the bundle 500k for PS4 boost in september. 360 owners who want 1080p and 60 fps can upgrade to Xbox One for destiny.

I agree with this



NobleTeam360 on 18 August 2014

Some of your predictions lately have been more reasonable Toast, that's good to see.



sabastian on 18 August 2014

I think that Madden bundle will truly move some units for M$.

Madden is still a heavy hitter here in the US.

I'm curious though. How much money is EA loosing on this bundle with giving away Madden