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Forums - Politics Discussion - If Kim-Jong-Un Dies Without a Son Who Will lead North Korea

phaedruss said:
Kongfucius said:
 


The Chinese back them to hedge American influence in East Asia - they're not massively supportive but so long as they're there,  their threats discourage a stronger military presence or other measures which the Chinese may not be very keen on - basically they ratchet up the tension and stop the west or Japan from getting hasty just in case they do have viable nukes or other WMDs


I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.

China just doesn't like the idea of a strong American ally sitting on their border (something they don't have anywhere else, except the contentious East China Sea). Diplomatic buzz (including some stuff from the big Wikileaks dump) showed that China has no more patience for NK's crap, but they still think it's better than the alternative of having the ROK, or possibly even a US Army Division, sitting on the Yalu River.

I think that China's ideal situation would be a non-crazy North Korea as a neighbor, but NK, as it is, is a bit too unhinged to be worth it.

My guess is that if South Korea and the US decided, for whatever reason, to aggressively invade North Korea (e.g., not in response to NK aggression), then China would intervene to support the North. If North Korea started something with South Korea, though, China would let them burn, although maybe send troops across the border to secure a part of the northern territory as an occupation zone, to avert the fear i cited in my first paragraph.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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phaedruss said:
Kongfucius said:
 


The Chinese back them to hedge American influence in East Asia - they're not massively supportive but so long as they're there,  their threats discourage a stronger military presence or other measures which the Chinese may not be very keen on - basically they ratchet up the tension and stop the west or Japan from getting hasty just in case they do have viable nukes or other WMDs


I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.

America has backed more than it's fair share of oppressive regimes in S.America over the years though, as they did in South Vietnam

Ultimately the DPRK is threatening enough to make the west think twice but not dangerous enough to make invasion a realistic course of action - from a geopolitical standpoint they strike a balance which makes them useful to the Chinese but not a realistic danger to the USA

Basically, you can make an ethical argument for going in to stop the oppression and abuses, but there are few tangible benefits relative to the cost of the occupation and the strain it would put on relations with China, and as Iraq shows, the west is quite happy to turn a blind eye to that sort of thing unless its to protect an attacked ally and their oil (Kuwait in 1991) or to take out a threat (or what was seen as a threat, even if it was incorrect). When Saddam was gassing the Kurds in 1988, we didn't do shit



Some-Kim will rule



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

phaedruss said:
Kongfucius said:
 


The Chinese back them to hedge American influence in East Asia - they're not massively supportive but so long as they're there,  their threats discourage a stronger military presence or other measures which the Chinese may not be very keen on - basically they ratchet up the tension and stop the west or Japan from getting hasty just in case they do have viable nukes or other WMDs


I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.


China supports NK so as not to have a USA ally on there land borders that's all there is to it.

It's the same reason for the Ukraine situation Russia doesn't want USA supporters right on there border.

Just be thankfull they're not as bad as the USA is? was? with non friendly nations being close to their coastal borders or it would be the cuban missle crisis again.



kumagawa said:
phaedruss said:
Kongfucius said:
 


The Chinese back them to hedge American influence in East Asia - they're not massively supportive but so long as they're there,  their threats discourage a stronger military presence or other measures which the Chinese may not be very keen on - basically they ratchet up the tension and stop the west or Japan from getting hasty just in case they do have viable nukes or other WMDs


I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.


China supports NK so as not to have a USA ally on there land borders that's all there is to it.

It's the same reason for the Ukraine situation Russia doesn't want USA supporters right on there border.

Just be thankfull they're not as bad as the USA is? was? with non friendly nations being close to their coastal borders or it would be the cuban missle crisis again.

Eh there are plenty of Americans and american allies in that region as it is. Either way I don't really care about the geopolitical situation as much as I do about the suffering of the North Koreans.



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phaedruss said:
kumagawa said:
phaedruss said:

I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.


China supports NK so as not to have a USA ally on there land borders that's all there is to it.

It's the same reason for the Ukraine situation Russia doesn't want USA supporters right on there border.

Just be thankfull they're not as bad as the USA is? was? with non friendly nations being close to their coastal borders or it would be the cuban missle crisis again.

Eh there are plenty of Americans and american allies in that region as it is. Either way I don't really care about the geopolitical situation as much as I do about the suffering of the North Koreans.

You might not, but the government (and here in the UK) does, and I guarantee you they won't go to war just because they feel they should. At best they might do it to win domestic support by being seen to back a noble cuase, but most of the time they're being ruthlessly pragmatic and playing the game for what they believe is the national interests (whatever that's supposed to mean nowadays)



Kongfucius said:
phaedruss said:
kumagawa said:
phaedruss said:

I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.


China supports NK so as not to have a USA ally on there land borders that's all there is to it.

It's the same reason for the Ukraine situation Russia doesn't want USA supporters right on there border.

Just be thankfull they're not as bad as the USA is? was? with non friendly nations being close to their coastal borders or it would be the cuban missle crisis again.

Eh there are plenty of Americans and american allies in that region as it is. Either way I don't really care about the geopolitical situation as much as I do about the suffering of the North Koreans.

You might not, but the government (and here in the UK) does, and I guarantee you they won't go to war just because they feel they should. At best they might do it to win domestic support by being seen to back a noble cuase, but most of the time they're being ruthlessly pragmatic and playing the game for what they believe is the national interests (whatever that's supposed to mean nowadays)

I don't see that the Chinese have anything to fear from the US either, actually. We're not enemies or hostile to them at all. In fact, we depend on each other economically. China has more to gain from a free North Korea as well in my view.



phaedruss said:
Kongfucius said:
phaedruss said:

Eh there are plenty of Americans and american allies in that region as it is. Either way I don't really care about the geopolitical situation as much as I do about the suffering of the North Koreans.

You might not, but the government (and here in the UK) does, and I guarantee you they won't go to war just because they feel they should. At best they might do it to win domestic support by being seen to back a noble cuase, but most of the time they're being ruthlessly pragmatic and playing the game for what they believe is the national interests (whatever that's supposed to mean nowadays)

I don't see that the Chinese have anything to fear from the US either, actually. We're not enemies or hostile to them at all. In fact, we depend on each other economically. China has more to gain from a free North Korea as well in my view.

What's the benefit for them? They like to be as influential as possible geopolitically as the USA does, and having DRPK there to discourage the west helps them. Economically if it became free would probably be reunified with South Korea and boost their economy in the long term (after a short term hindrance, like in Germany after 1989), which would only increase competition for Chinese firms and cause the Chinese people to ask more awkward questions about their economic model. As for the threat of trade sanctions, the USA hasn't done anything to them over Tibet, or their general repression of their people so they're unlikely to be intimidated over their support and besides, as you say, the USA needs Chinese made goods as much as China needs American customers. Why break the status quo if it works for both countries

Only way I can see China disaavowing the North Koreans is if it benefited them to do so in a very direct manner, e.g. a USA brokered deal in which they end support and recieve the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands from Japan in return, but what interest would the Japanese have in allowing that to happen, especially with a more nationalist PM in power right now like Shinzo Abe?

Just to be clear I'm absolutely not trying to support the Kims, I agree in an ideal world they would not be in power, I'm only trying to explain why I think any outside intervention to remove the Kim regime is highly unlikely



Dennis rodman will become leader lol.the military will pick a new leader



VITA 32 GIG CARD.250 GIG SLIM & 160 GIG PHAT PS3

All of North Korea can only hope he does die without spawning another Kim Jong __.

Maybe Dennis Rodman will take over for him.