If Kim-Jong-Un Dies Without a Son Who Will lead North Korea

[Mr Khan]

phaedruss said:

Kongfucius said:

 

The Chinese back them to hedge American influence in East Asia - they're not massively supportive but so long as they're there,  their threats discourage a stronger military presence or other measures which the Chinese may not be very keen on - basically they ratchet up the tension and stop the west or Japan from getting hasty just in case they do have viable nukes or other WMDs

I don't normally support interventionism and that kind of policy, but in the case of North Korea I can make an exception lol. I really don't get what China has to gain from antagonizing the west and Japan at this point, especially over some two-bit military dictatorship that has nothing to offer them.

China just doesn't like the idea of a strong American ally sitting on their border (something they don't have anywhere else, except the contentious East China Sea). Diplomatic buzz (including some stuff from the big Wikileaks dump) showed that China has no more patience for NK's crap, but they still think it's better than the alternative of having the ROK, or possibly even a US Army Division, sitting on the Yalu River.

I think that China's ideal situation would be a non-crazy North Korea as a neighbor, but NK, as it is, is a bit too unhinged to be worth it.

My guess is that if South Korea and the US decided, for whatever reason, to aggressively invade North Korea (e.g., not in response to NK aggression), then China would intervene to support the North. If North Korea started something with South Korea, though, China would let them burn, although maybe send troops across the border to secure a part of the northern territory as an occupation zone, to avert the fear i cited in my first paragraph.