phaedruss said:
I don't see that the Chinese have anything to fear from the US either, actually. We're not enemies or hostile to them at all. In fact, we depend on each other economically. China has more to gain from a free North Korea as well in my view. |
What's the benefit for them? They like to be as influential as possible geopolitically as the USA does, and having DRPK there to discourage the west helps them. Economically if it became free would probably be reunified with South Korea and boost their economy in the long term (after a short term hindrance, like in Germany after 1989), which would only increase competition for Chinese firms and cause the Chinese people to ask more awkward questions about their economic model. As for the threat of trade sanctions, the USA hasn't done anything to them over Tibet, or their general repression of their people so they're unlikely to be intimidated over their support and besides, as you say, the USA needs Chinese made goods as much as China needs American customers. Why break the status quo if it works for both countries
Only way I can see China disaavowing the North Koreans is if it benefited them to do so in a very direct manner, e.g. a USA brokered deal in which they end support and recieve the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands from Japan in return, but what interest would the Japanese have in allowing that to happen, especially with a more nationalist PM in power right now like Shinzo Abe?
Just to be clear I'm absolutely not trying to support the Kims, I agree in an ideal world they would not be in power, I'm only trying to explain why I think any outside intervention to remove the Kim regime is highly unlikely
