well if my numbers are correct

PS2 ~158m, Xbox ~24.5m, Gamecube ~22.5m
PS2 had ~77% market share.

now i dont expect it to be that high this gen, but i think it has a good shot at ~60%+

my predictions:
PS4 ~130m, Xbox One ~60m, WiiU ~20m
~62% market share.

I mean the casual casuals. Those that bought the consoles just for the motion controls and party games which is a huge chunk of sales of last gen because it was new and exciting. Also the same people that made up a good chunk of PS2's late sales.

Unless they bring out something new and exciting they won't draw that crowd and only tap into the hardcore market which is a number smaller than what we've seen last gen.

You don't expect this to stay that way are you? What we are seeing now are not the regular sales for PS4 but still the pent up initial demand. When that is done the sales will be a lot closer. Also expect MS to bring the big guns to E3. A price cut and some big new featurs and games will do wonders for the X1.

But best selling games on ps2 are hardcore game casuals wasn't big in the day of ps2 i doubt there are a lot casual who buy bought a ps2,even on ps3 casuals games sold poorly compared to casuals games on wii and xbox360.

PS3 never had that many casual games though( I know because I often tried looking for some) and it never got into the price range for a casual magnet. It's still above 200 bucks. At the end of its lifetime the PS2 was 99 and below and I know a few people that bought it at that time just for the party games.

The PS3 might not have as many casuals(or families) as the other consoles, let's say 15 million of the 80. To reach anything close to 100 the PS4 would need their complete base(which they won't get) plus additional gamers from the other side. I know there are a few X1 fans switching but it shouldn't be too many. On the Nintendo side I doubt that any significant number would switch to Sony. Add to that that this gen will be shorter and it is suddenly not as clear anymore to reach the 100 million.

People who think the PS4 will do more than 100 assume that the console market will grow and that a significant number of people will switch to PS4. However the non casual base of the other platforms is smaller and the number of people willing to switch is even smaller.

So if the PS4 really wants to break the 100 it needs mainstream attention beyond the hardcores which I don't see now. What I see now is a Sony fanbae frustrated with the PS3 flocking to the PS4 and MS fans waiting for a price drop and more games to jump. So the current sales don't really paint the big picture.

Man sony is doing good. But you guys predicting the ps4 to do 40-50 million more than the xbox one are crazy to me. Ps3 came back and o can the one or even the wiiu. Way to early to tell right now. All we can say is that the ps4 is doing the best right now.

PS2 sold 150 millions consoles majority of them are hardcore gamers ,ps3+xbox360 outsold ps2 that mean not all ps2 gamers switch to xbox i think a lot of ps2 gamers didn't buy a last generation console.

PS3 sold 80 millions despite having inferior version of multiplatform game,600 dollars price i don't see why it so hard for ps4 to sold over 100 millions.

You really believe there are hardcore gamers that skip a whole generation?

So far PS360 sold 160 million. Count out the casuals and the millions of broken and rebought consoles and people that switched to pc and mobile. Now consider that X1 won't do less than 50 million. And then tell me how easy it is to reach 100 million with the remaining people.

Again, the numbers the consoles are doing now are absolutely no indication for the success of this gen. I expect a sharp decline at some point when the market is saturated. And that will be a good measure before the generation ends. You can't make customers out of nothing.

wait and see i don't see any reason we will see a sharp decline.

He said pre-orders are looking that way. 

I wouldn't be suripised if it sold the same amount or barely more.