That is of course the less likely scenario, but if we're going by VGC numbers, and PAL charts, the recent multiplats of smaller magnitude, not the huge mainstream established franchises, games aren't setting the world on fire with sales, certainly not showing the 160 million vs 7 million install base difference. Then there are vgc preorder charts (I don't give them much credibility though) show that every cross-gen game with a 2014 release date is doing way better on next-gen consoles. Of course even if the preorder numbers are close to being correct, PS4/X1 owners are more eager for new games and more likely to preorder, as well as the games will be probably more frontloaded, but still there are a couple of favorable indicators. But I recall Ubisoft saying in a press release that Watch Dogs preorder numbers are much higher on PS4/XB1, that was before delay though and they may have lost some of the preorder from people who wanted to play the game on next gen launch. And if Ubisoft knows it's demography well, I'm sure they know that a vision of a "next-gen" only game would be much more exciting for the core gamer, that most probably dominates PS4/XB1 install base and get additional sales.

All that said, we get quite a few games this year that skip PS360, Witcher 3, Lords of the Fallen, Evolve (2014 I think?), Ubisofts own The Crew, and The Division, among others less notable games.

And we have barely seen PS360 footage of Watch Dogs, we don't know how advanced the work was, maybe the delay was to get those games going, maybe Ubisoft decided to ditch those and take some time to make the PS4/XB1 versions best as possible, showing a clear quality jump.

So, you'll buy a PS4 just for a 3rd party game?  That's new, most people who wait to buy systems wait for 1st party games they know they can't get anywhere else...

Pre-order numbers can be deceptive. Currently we can say that for the most part the owners of PS4s and XB1s are dedicated gamers, which in turn are the most likely to preorder games. This skews the vision of the real distribution of sales once the game is released.

I agree with you that Watch_Dogs being marketed as a "true next-gen" game would boost its PS4/XB1 numbers but never enough to make up for the lost sales of 7th gen consoles.

I'm not a betting man but if I had to bet I'd say that Watch_Dogs is assurely getting released on PS360 and that the sales on those systems will be greater than on 8th gen consoles.

Haha there is a bet exactly like that between Bananaking and Pezus already so we'll see anyway, I would say that PS4/XB1 will outsell PS360 versions for the record

So, you'll buy a PS4 just for a 3rd party game?  That's new, most people who wait to buy systems wait for 1st party games they know they can't get anywhere else...