superhippy420 said:
I just dont understand the reasoning behind any of these numbers. He predicts that Wii U will be at 20 million by 2016 which would mean that they think it will only sell 7.2 million per year in the next 2 years. It will be at about 5.3 million in the first 13 months and thats without its two biggest franchises (Kart,Smash), not to mention that Zelda and Donkey Kong are always huge sellers. PS4 would need to sell 16.5 million per year, which could happen but I have seen little in terms of software to push it to those kind of sales. Xbone is already tanking in Europe, will flop in Japan like every other Xbox, and if Microsoft loses America to Sony, I wouldnt be shocked if they didnt reach 35 million this entire generation. I'll throw my numbers out there by the start of 2016 just for fun.
PS4 - 30 m.
Wii U - 27 m.
Xbone - 15 m. |
1: Wii U will likely be around 5 million for year end 2013 after post-holiday adjustments.
2: That "5.3" million in "13 months" is two holiday seasons and a very good launch, the actual numbers for the entire CY 2013 will very likely be below 3 million, that's fantastically bad.
3: Year end 2016 means three years of sales, these projections factor in a yearly average of around 5 million Wii U's, which is quite generous and a 66-70% increase yoy from 2013.
4: Smash, Kart, DK and Zelda were also on the Gamecube without causing that to sell very well, or even decently, you have to understand how hard it will be to move significant numbers without proper 3rd party support and with no "casual" audience to rely on this time around, this is not the Wii.
5: PS4 does not need to sell over 16 million per year, this is three years, an average of about 11-11.5 million will suffice, PS3 was at roughly 7.9, 10.2 and 14 million for its first three full years on the market with a ridiculous entry price, massive competition from the 360 with a one year head start and the record breaking Wii setting the pace to begin with. The PS3's average in the first three full years was about 10.7 million, these projections aren't at all that bad, the One looks set to be dead in Japan and a reduced threat at best in most of Europe, perhaps even the UK and the Wii U isn't presenting much of a challenge. Why will the PS4 fail to match or improve the PS3's performance in the beginning here with a 33% lower entry price, massive support, almost solely recieving the positive press and seemingly having great demand resulting in a record launch window? The PS3 didn't exactly set the world on fire so these numbers aren't terribly hard to match.
6: 27 million Wii U's by year end 2016 would require a likely 7.2-7.3 million average per year, probably requiring a roughly estimated 160% yoy increase on average on the 2013 CY numbers, the Wii had a 50% yoy increase from first full year to second with massive supply constraints during the launch window and an actual decrease of about 15-20% on the second year, followed by another 15-20% decrease yoy in the third full year. Do I need to tell you how utterly unrealistic you're being here?
7: 15 million One's by year end 2016 would entail a yearly average slightly above 4 million, the 360 managed about 6.8 million in its first full year with no relevance in Japan, about 7.8 million second year and almost 11 million in the third year, that's a yearly average of about 8.5 million and you expect the One to somehow drop down to well below 50% of this despite no Wii phenomenon to compete with this gen and massive support garnered in the 7th gen available from the start? What's the reasoning behind this number? You're also saying that the One is "tanking" in Europe and that it might "lose" America, based on what? Weren't you cheering on the Wii U when it increased in Japan this year? What's to stop the One from doing a stellar job in America and winning that territory? Why would it be irrelevant in Europe in the coming 3-5 years because it didn't explode from launch? 35 million for the entire gen is amazingly low with only 5-6 weeks of launch data to go by. For the Wii U, we already have data and know it has done horribly all on its own, yet you somehow imagine it will beat the One by 12 million units in the coming three years, this warrants an explanation. You cling to Mario, Zelda and Donkey Kong, but do you not realise that the One will also have system selling software helping it along?
8: Aren't you always going on about how you're a "business major"? Then how can you have such a lack of insight on business and sales? Freshman year, I suppose.
Edit; if we're going by your two year span rather than their three year span, the numbers are actually higher for the PS4 (which is quite amusing) on your end and your Wii U prediction is utterly ridiculous and hinging upon a historical 270-300% yoy increase on average on the 2013 CY numbers for the next two years. I recommend you drop out of school if that's the case.
