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The Wii U IS NOT Doomed.

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Wii U IS NOT Doomed.

snowdog said:
I think the 'Wii U is d00med' nonsense will stop after the Christmas shopping season has come and gone.

It's going to have an installed userbase over 8m before the end of the year. And that Motley Fool article didn't mention that the bad start that the Wii U has had has left it with an installed userbase just 1.5m short of the 360 during its 1 year head start. Hardly a disaster.


8 million before the end of the year? It would need an average of over 510.000 per week, starting NOW (!) in order to do that. Note that the best week it ever had was about 560.000 and it was never supply constrained, you expect it to nudge close to this number on average for the whole rest of Nov/Dec. There is simply nothing at all pointing towards such a thing being even remotely possible outside a fever dream, that would beat the One, PS4, PS3 and 360 and be pretty close to the 3DS in sales and likely require one or more million selling week(s). No way.

I just have to ask; are you serious? Do you actually believe this will happen?

In my opinion, it's gonna have to fight to get over 6 million by year's end.

Also, for the record, the 360 was at nearly 6 million after one full year on the market and over 8.1 million after its second holiday season, the Wii U is tracking about 2 million behind at this point. The PS3 was over 6 million after one full year and at around 9.5 million after the second holiday season, tracking way above. Both the 360 and the PS3 had fairly slow starts and the PS3 had a ludicrous price tag and a staggered launch and both HD consoles had shit software for quite some time do drive the sales.

In all honesty, you and a lot other users in here need to get your head out of the sky and look at the cold, hard facts at hand.

I think at this point, this whole argument of the OP boils down to semantics; what is your definition of doomed?

Edit; I need to correct my numbers, the Wii U actually need in excess of 580k weekly average from now to cross 8 million by year's end, that's 15-20k above its best week ever, on average, for the rest of the year. Please let that simmer for a while.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:

 

post


This is all starting to feel like a call back to PS3 fans around 06/07.

"Just wait for Lair!"



 

 

MontanaHatchet said:
Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:

 

post


This is all starting to feel like a call back to PS3 fans around 06/07.

"Just wait for Lair!"

I've been thinking the exact same thing, it's simply incredible to watch.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:

 

post


This is all starting to feel like a call back to PS3 fans around 06/07.

"Just wait for Lair!"

I've been thinking the exact same thing, it's simply incredible to watch.

The crazy thing is that I can vividly remember Nintendo fans trashing on the PS3 and its low sales when it seemed like the Wii could do no wrong. It's a complete and utter turn around that I've actually been here long enough to see. It's a beautiful bit of history.



 

 

MontanaHatchet said:
Mummelmann said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:

 

post


This is all starting to feel like a call back to PS3 fans around 06/07.

"Just wait for Lair!"

I've been thinking the exact same thing, it's simply incredible to watch.

The crazy thing is that I can vividly remember Nintendo fans trashing on the PS3 and its low sales when it seemed like the Wii could do no wrong. It's a complete and utter turn around that I've actually been here long enough to see. It's a beautiful bit of history.


Once again images of that chalkboard come to mind :P



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Soundwave said:
Devil_Survivor said:
I'm not sure why people are even talking about this given the sales have picked in the recent weeks. In end all Nintendo cares about is if the Wii U makes a profit or not, the Gamecube made Nintendo money even thou it only sold 21 million. Everything will be alright in Wii U land.


Nintendo is losing money right now, much more than they ever have in the past, so I don't think it's that simple. 

They were also pretty bitterly dissapointed with the GameCube, which is part and parcel why they opted to go such a different route with the Wii. 

If Wii U sells in the GameCube range, Nintendo won't be very happy. The other problem is kids these days are getting handed a smart device and starting to play games on those before they even get a Nintendo portable and its disrupting the marketplace. 

Now they are throwing everything they can at the 3DS to keep it at a high sales level, but no doubt they are working harder in the handheld business than ever before and coming no where close to sniffing DS level sales.

So this is problematic, because during the GCN days, more or less Nintendo had a 100% monopoly on anything kids played in the handheld relam, not to mention at that time, they were reaping a lot of money off Pokemon as a merchandising property (toys, TV shows, movies, etc.). That's still around to some extent but definitely not as hot as it was in the early 2000s.  

It was easier to cruise off that handheld and consider consoles just gravy when you are completely unchallenged in the handheld sector, that's certainly no longer the case. If anything I think smart device gaming bothers Nintendo more because it strikes at the heart of a lot of things they like to call their own -- kid friendly gaming, intuite controls, etc. Sony could never seriously challenge Nintendo in the kids market, because they don't have an answer to Mario or Pokemon (maybe in the Crash Bandicoot days I guess). 

Soundwave, first off they're losing money? What are you talking about? they made a net profit in the last two quarters including the that just got reported. It was a small one yes, only 6 million dollars, but still a profit. 

Who ever said the 3DS was ever going to sell as good as the DS? Nobody except maybe the most delusional fanboys, and doesn't it have to be the DS for Nintendo to be in good shape. So stop pretending that if doesn't do DS numbers that its a failure, its selling amazing and that is the important thing. 

About  Pokemon, every successive game in the series has sold less than Red and Blue until it leveled off at about 10-14 million per new generation of game, not counting the remakes of the first two games. The tv series is still going to this day and they are still making movies, so trust me Pokemon is still raking the money in for them. 

They never"crusied" off just handhelds, well not intentionally lol, however they had to rely on it during years 1996-2006 because they home consoles didn't sell as well as they wanted.  



 

After next year no one will be able to question whether or not the Wii U is doomed unless they're crazy.



Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:
I think the 'Wii U is d00med' nonsense will stop after the Christmas shopping season has come and gone.

It's going to have an installed userbase over 8m before the end of the year. And that Motley Fool article didn't mention that the bad start that the Wii U has had has left it with an installed userbase just 1.5m short of the 360 during its 1 year head start. Hardly a disaster.


8 million before the end of the year? It would need an average of over 510.000 per week, starting NOW (!) in order to do that. Note that the best week it ever had was about 560.000 and it was never supply constrained, you expect it to nudge close to this number on average for the whole rest of Nov/Dec. There is simply nothing at all pointing towards such a thing being even remotely possible outside a fever dream, that would beat the One, PS4, PS3 and 360 and be pretty close to the 3DS in sales and likely require one or more million selling week(s). No way.

I just have to ask; are you serious? Do you actually believe this will happen?

In my opinion, it's gonna have to fight to get over 6 million by year's end.

Also, for the record, the 360 was at nearly 6 million after one full year on the market and over 8.1 million after its second holiday season, the Wii U is tracking about 2 million behind at this point. The PS3 was over 6 million after one full year and at around 9.5 million after the second holiday season, tracking way above. Both the 360 and the PS3 had fairly slow starts and the PS3 had a ludicrous price tag and a staggered launch and both HD consoles had shit software for quite some time do drive the sales.

In all honesty, you and a lot other users in here need to get your head out of the sky and look at the cold, hard facts at hand.

I think at this point, this whole argument of the OP boils down to semantics; what is your definition of doomed?

Edit; I need to correct my numbers, the Wii U actually need in excess of 580k weekly average from now to cross 8 million by year's end, that's 15-20k above its best week ever, on average, for the rest of the year. Please let that simmer for a while.

Yes, I do believe what I'm saying. It's done 4m so far and with the launch of Super Mario 3D World in time for Christmas the Wii U should sell 4m between now and the end of the year. If my guesstimate is out it won't be out by much, just wait and see.



snowdog said:
Mummelmann said:
snowdog said:
I think the 'Wii U is d00med' nonsense will stop after the Christmas shopping season has come and gone.

It's going to have an installed userbase over 8m before the end of the year. And that Motley Fool article didn't mention that the bad start that the Wii U has had has left it with an installed userbase just 1.5m short of the 360 during its 1 year head start. Hardly a disaster.


8 million before the end of the year? It would need an average of over 510.000 per week, starting NOW (!) in order to do that. Note that the best week it ever had was about 560.000 and it was never supply constrained, you expect it to nudge close to this number on average for the whole rest of Nov/Dec. There is simply nothing at all pointing towards such a thing being even remotely possible outside a fever dream, that would beat the One, PS4, PS3 and 360 and be pretty close to the 3DS in sales and likely require one or more million selling week(s). No way.

I just have to ask; are you serious? Do you actually believe this will happen?

In my opinion, it's gonna have to fight to get over 6 million by year's end.

Also, for the record, the 360 was at nearly 6 million after one full year on the market and over 8.1 million after its second holiday season, the Wii U is tracking about 2 million behind at this point. The PS3 was over 6 million after one full year and at around 9.5 million after the second holiday season, tracking way above. Both the 360 and the PS3 had fairly slow starts and the PS3 had a ludicrous price tag and a staggered launch and both HD consoles had shit software for quite some time do drive the sales.

In all honesty, you and a lot other users in here need to get your head out of the sky and look at the cold, hard facts at hand.

I think at this point, this whole argument of the OP boils down to semantics; what is your definition of doomed?

Edit; I need to correct my numbers, the Wii U actually need in excess of 580k weekly average from now to cross 8 million by year's end, that's 15-20k above its best week ever, on average, for the rest of the year. Please let that simmer for a while.

Yes, I do believe what I'm saying. It's done 4m so far and with the launch of Super Mario 3D World in time for Christmas the Wii U should sell 4m between now and the end of the year. If my guesstimate is out it won't be out by much, just wait and see.


No offense, but you got ethered there, flat out. That Mummelmann guy picked your arguement apart with facts. Zero chance in hell it averages 580k a week for the rest of the year, not even close. 



He hasn't picked anything apart at all. He's chosen an average every week. Sales don't work like that. Even if the Wii U sales only match the sales totals last year (and 3m sales over the holiday period are actually poor sales for a console) then that's an installed userbase of 7m, but they should sell more.

You're looking at a console that's $100 cheaper than the PS4, $200 cheaper than the Xbox One and without the need to pay another fee on top for online play and with a key AAA title from Nintendo. And then if that wasn't enough you've got poor launch lineups for the PS4 and Xbox One and both consoles will be supply constrained.

And next year you've got several big titles to keep sales momentum going such as Donkey Kong, Mario Kart 8, SMT x Fire Emblem, X, Bayonetta 2, Yarn Yoshi, SSBU and whatever Megatons Nintendo have up their sleeves during next year's E3.

I'm expecting the Wii U to hit the floor running this holiday shopping season and to continue selling next year now that Nintendo appear to have got their arses in gear with regards to HD development. And with sales of 8m+ you'll see third party publishers jumping on Wii U support next year to keep shareholders happy, even EA will put a stop to their hissy fit.