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Prediction: First Week Sales of Super Mario 3D World in Japan?

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DucksUnlimited said:
Shortiloe said:

Funny, how People predict, it will only sell 120-150k. Even Pikmin 3 sold round abut 90-100k.

I say at least 350k.

You think it will have over at least a %30 attach ratio in just the first week? Granted, more Wii U hardware will be sold in Japan that week, but that's still pretty steep I think. Just for perspective, Sunshine did about 320k in Japan first week I believe and that was on a bigger install base.

I'd say more along the lines of 250k for this one, especially since it seems a little more casual targeted and less likely to be something that's preordered as much.

Considering Japanese gamersprefer casual Mario games over hard mario games(see 3D Land's reception for proof) 3D world could do 250-300K, sure 350K is still outragous but it might still be possible if it taps into the casual market



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

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Ninjahound101 said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Shortiloe said:

Funny, how People predict, it will only sell 120-150k. Even Pikmin 3 sold round abut 90-100k.

I say at least 350k.

You think it will have over at least a %30 attach ratio in just the first week? Granted, more Wii U hardware will be sold in Japan that week, but that's still pretty steep I think. Just for perspective, Sunshine did about 320k in Japan first week I believe and that was on a bigger install base.

I'd say more along the lines of 250k for this one, especially since it seems a little more casual targeted and less likely to be something that's preordered as much.

Considering Japanese gamersprefer casual Mario games over hard mario games(see 3D Land's reception for proof) 3D world could do 250-300K, sure 350K is still outragous but it might still be possible if it taps into the casual market

Tapping into the casual market is going to help its long term success, not so much its first week.



225k



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150k



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DucksUnlimited said:
Ninjahound101 said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Shortiloe said:

Funny, how People predict, it will only sell 120-150k. Even Pikmin 3 sold round abut 90-100k.

I say at least 350k.

You think it will have over at least a %30 attach ratio in just the first week? Granted, more Wii U hardware will be sold in Japan that week, but that's still pretty steep I think. Just for perspective, Sunshine did about 320k in Japan first week I believe and that was on a bigger install base.

I'd say more along the lines of 250k for this one, especially since it seems a little more casual targeted and less likely to be something that's preordered as much.

Considering Japanese gamersprefer casual Mario games over hard mario games(see 3D Land's reception for proof) 3D world could do 250-300K, sure 350K is still outragous but it might still be possible if it taps into the casual market

Tapping into the casual market is going to help its long term success, not so much its first week.

Yeah, i just assumed that Mario fans could do 270k or so and the casuals could give it a boost to 320K or so

it mostly boils to the score if the game gets a 39 or 40/40 it'll drag people who were planning to get it later to get it on launch week



bet with ash3336 he wins if Super Mario 3D World sells less than Mario Sunshine during the first three years, I win if 3D World outsells Sunshine's first 3 years. Loser get sig controlled for 3 months (punishment might change)

Do you doubt the WiiU? Do you believe that it won't match the GC?

Then come and accept this bet

Nintendo eShop USA sales ranking 2/12/2013 : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=173615

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If Wii Fit U can move over 70k units and make the Wii U sell roughly 40,000 (after it sold less than 3-4,000 the last few weeks) then I would imagine 3d world will be insane. 



I am not worry about first week, christmas is around the corner. People without a Wii U will wait until the end of the year to buy the console and the game. I will say around 500k using the 1.09m units sold on Japan so far.
Why: Simple, a Nintendo console without a Mario game is not a Nintendo console!



180-200k



230k



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Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
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Considering that Mario galaxy sold 260k first week with an install base of 3,7 millions of Wiis, I would say that SM3D will sold not more than 150k first week.
With a boost of 30 or 40k for the console