AmishGarmish: Well, will you please list some of the ones that say the PS3 won't win?
Well, if I must
Saying the 360 will win, although this is fairly old(which is no different then several of your links, so I'm just using this as an example)
claiming the PS2 will handedly outsell the PS3 in 2007 and beyond. This is fairly recent, and although not necessarily saying the PS3 will fail, it is exemplary of how analyst can pull anything out of their magic hat of "predictions"
Predicting both the PS3 and 360 will do well, but with the 360 maintaining a lead.
I can find more, including ones predicting a Wii victory, if you'd really like me to do work for you. However, I put allot more stock in what developers and people actually in the industry say, which is predominately predicting 360 or Wii victories. Reports like this
Research and Markets
The above two links are about the exact same research report titled 'The Transforming Global Video Games Market: The Emergence of Next Generation Gamingâ.
This story also has a link to an analyst who states "We believe that under Kutaragi's techno-elite PlayStation 3 strategy, the PlayStation 3 could end up with a market share more resembling Apple products [in the PC sector] as opposed to the dominant PlayStation 2 market share." The story also says that the 360 and Wii will dominate their respective markets. Why did you ignore this?
This is from 2005, well before anyone knew about the $500 bomb. This guy also thinks the 360 and PS3 launching at the same time is very likely, and guesses about both systems feature set. Needless to say, I think this report is pretty irrelevant.
This is also from march '06, well before E3 and the final price.
Funny, yesterday you mocked this prediction by saying "at least they tried, lol", but now you've edited your post. Maybe you realized mocking the validity of some analyst is hypocritical and destroys your credibility?
AmishGarmish: It would be extremely hard for Sony to make 18.5M PS3s by the end of the year, but we'll just have to see.
It'd be even harder for them to sell 18.5 million in '07
AmishGarmsih:Analysts also thought that the PSP would win the handheld war (They didn't count how Nintendo has owned that market for nearly 20 years), and look at it now. But now a lot of analysts are thinking that the distance between the PSP and DS is going to shrink in the coming years.
Actually all the analyst predictions I remember reading did take into account Nintendo's history of hand held domination. If they were wrong before why would they be trustworthy now? I'd like to add that the "analyst" were almost uniform in their belief that the PSP would crush the DS. And why did you bring up predictions that the PSP would chip away at the DS lead?
AmishGarmish: And Merrill Lynch said that the PS3 would cost $800 to make in spring 06 and would drop $320 in one year, but they said around that time that the PS3 would sell for $800 for two years. (They seem contradictory to me)
Not true. They do state it will cost approx $800 to produce(that is inline with most cost estimates). However, no where in the report you linked to did they say it would retail for that amount - they have never stated that it will retail for $800, and in November '05 they predicted the PS3 would retail for $500. Here is a link
detailing the Merrill Lynch report that has thus far proved accurate in it's prediction of supply problems and the unlikely prospect of Sony shipping more than 2million by the end of '06. Also, many have predicted that the PS3's price would remain constant for some time after they cut production cost, much like how MS is now selling the 360 for profit. Additionally Merrill Lynch said it would take 3 years to get down to $320, not 1 year as yu stated, again your facts are wrong.
AmishGarmish: Well, we truly never know what will happen until the time comes, but when there is an overwhelming support of one console (most say it will be close), you can't just let that information pass.
There is far from a uniform opinion, and analyst have been far from right even when they are all practically in agreement(see PSP)
If you aren't a fanboy, then your sure doing a good job acting like one.