Pretty much this.  Nintendo is known for being a hoilday seller, but anything less or more is not really possible.

I really laugh at the under 5 million option.

Having a poll like this can out the haters, and I like that.

Wedbush estimates 8,5 mill shipped according to a radio interview with Pachter. This was a serious interview and not a pach attack show, and was made immediately after the prisecut was announced. I think that may be a bit much considering what we know now.

Nintendo have shipped 4 mill WiiU units worldwide. And I'd say its pretty reasonable to expect the system to ship 7 mill by dec 31 2013. And they will most likely sell out that shipment.

The new upcoming marketing campaign focused on families and the upcoming ridiculous bundles reinforce that estimate.

7.3 million by this year.

7.2m by Dec 31 Vgchartz numbers.

For 5m it needs to sell 1.47m in what, 14 weeks? That makes it 105,000 per week.

Right now, after the USA price cut, it sold 34,000. The average is gonna keep increasing since it still isn't close to those numbers. So I guess it's gonna have to sell around 200,000 per week during the 5-6 peak weeks to reach 5m.

OK. Doable.

Now, for 6m, it's gonna need 176,000 units sold per week. The WiiU is very quickly falling behind that average and will probably need a consistent 350,000 per week during the 5-6 peak weeks to catch up. And I honestly don't see it.

Sorry to be a pessimist, but I don't see the WiiU reaching 6m. I might be wrong.

Japan and Vrazil %^

6.5 million. I want and hope it to sell more, but I just get the feeling it will take a while to build up momentum.

Get real people (for the 25 who voted under 5 million).
As if it will only sell 1.5 million units with the price cut, a stellar lineup, and Holiday sales.

In general, console sales during the holiday season tend to be equal to the sales of the rest of the year combined, usually within 20 percent.

According to VGChartz, the Wii U has sold 1.25 million units so far this year. Assuming the upper-end of that estimation...

2.2 (220%) * 1.25 + 2.25 (2012 total) = 5 million.

However, given the circumstances surrounding the Wii U sales (namely, the game drought), and the recent price-drop (which hasn't been observed long enough to guage its effect), that's probably too conservative. Without more data, I'm not comfortable shooting that low.

In the end, I think the highest the Wii U could sell before the end of the year is 6.25 million, LTD.

Considering that Nitendo said it was over 3.6 back in June, it is very likely over that mark by now, and with the price drop, there is literally no way it won't AT LEAST hit 5 mil by the end of the year.