PS4 will sell MUCH better than PS3 in Japan. No doubt more than 20 million.

Note:
PS3 has sold 9.5M so far in Japan.

worse than ps3 for sure. 42,000 yen console without steady stream of japanese games in the age of portable & mobile domination in Japan... It will sell more that 5 million, but i'm not sure about 10.

PS3 sales in Japan (2006-2013): 9.338.881.

i think ps4 will start greatly, biggest fans will buy it for sure, and then console will fail in sales to ~10K/week territory with bumps in weeks w/big games like FFXV or MGSV. tgs 2013 was soooo poor in terms of next gen announcements. compared to 2005-2006 craze.

many japanese gamers just don't care about home console gaming anymore.

I expect it to do about the same as the PS3.

No doubt more than 20 million?

Your confidence is very interesting, would you mind expanding a bit on why you see it this way?

12.5-15 million, so from slightly less to slightly more than the Wii, because I expect it to have a longer lifespan, though with lower peak sales.

Anything past 12.5 million is ridicules. Japan is not a big market for consoles. The PS4 will do less, about 8.5 million.

I think the PS4 will sell around the numbers of the PS3, maybe even more.

While Japanese console gaming is down, I think that will effect the overall performance of the WiiU while the Playstation brand will stay flat, leaving the overall Market down.

Just for kickers Im betting the X1 does about the same as the 360, just like the PS4 will stay the same as the PS3.

lol, so more than ps2 in the era of "portable revolution" in japan? oh wow.

Hard to say. Maybe around 8 million.

Sure.  I see the PS4 as the "return of the console" in Japan.  Nothing [at home] has been big there since PS2, and I have a feeling based on a general overall sense of enthusiasm, momentum, along with Sony's own corporate philosophies.  I see big things coming.  Disclaimer: I'm not a die-hard PS-only fan, I've owned and enjoyed consoles from every major company since the 90s.

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

As you can see, Playstation sold just about 20M, and PS2 sold more than 23M.  And if I'm right about this generation being the return of the Sony console, then it's not at all a far-fetched idea.  PS and PS2 made it happen during the age of Gameboy and NDS, and I reasonably predict PS4 to do as well during the age of 3DS and Vita.  By the way, there is no such thing as the era of 'portable revolution'.  Handhelds have been huge since 1990.  Facts are fun, so is maturity.