|Erik Aston said:|
And I'll name them. At least 10 of them should be pointing out the obvious.
People are exaggerating how big Brawl is going to be. Sales estimates well above 15 million, talk of how its "Nintendo's biggest franchise" or will be the "defining game on Wii." Biggest case in point: on theSimExchange, Brawl is valued above 17M in sales. At its highest, it topped 20M.
These people are eithers fools and braggarts, or remarkable psychics. My guess is it is the former. The best selling game last gen - Grand Theft Auto : Whatever - sold 15m copies. For anyone to peg SSBB at 17 or 20 is just being blinded by hype. Unfortunately, I think you are letting their foolishness push you into a reactive stance.
Let me first name 12 sure bets. I guarentee that each and every one of these games will sell more than Brawl. (Sales numbers from earlier today.)
1. Wii Sports 18.52M - Packed in with the Wii. Unless a new game goes in the box, this will surely beat every game this gen, but the comparison is simply unfair.
And, additional games of which at least 3 will beat Brawl...
Animal Crossing Wii - Not based on GCN sales. ACWii will be lucky to hit 8million.
Brawl will cruise past the sales of the previous versions. It will make a run at 10 million sales. But it will not be the biggest game this generation. It will not sell 12, 15 or 20 million.
I see 10 million pretty easily, and a good shot at 12. 15 or higher would mean the Wii itself will be far more successful than many of us expect, and in that case many titles will see their numbers similarly inflated.
While I give you credit for a gutsy call here, I think you've stepped a little to far out on your limb. Brawl will be a contender for biggest title this generation, and only GTA, Nintendogs, Mario, WiiSports2 and GT5 have a very good chance of beating it, with only a handful of other titles with outside shots. There's always the chance that a new phenomenon will come along, but there's no way Brawl doesn't make the Top Ten for this generation, and it is almost a lock for the Top 5.