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Forums - Sales Discussion - 15 games will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl this gen.

misterd on 08 February 2008
Erik Aston said:

And I'll name them. At least 10 of them should be pointing out the obvious.

People are exaggerating how big Brawl is going to be. Sales estimates well above 15 million, talk of how its "Nintendo's biggest franchise" or will be the "defining game on Wii." Biggest case in point: on theSimExchange, Brawl is valued above 17M in sales. At its highest, it topped 20M. 

These people are eithers fools and braggarts, or remarkable psychics. My guess is it is the former. The best selling game last gen - Grand Theft Auto : Whatever - sold 15m copies. For anyone to peg SSBB at 17 or 20 is just being blinded by hype. Unfortunately, I think you are letting their foolishness push you into a reactive stance. 

Let me first name 12 sure bets. I guarentee that each and every one of these games will sell more than Brawl. (Sales numbers from earlier today.)

1. Wii Sports 18.52M - Packed in with the Wii. Unless a new game goes in the box, this will surely beat every game this gen, but the comparison is simply unfair.
2. Nintendogs 17.35M
3. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 13.65M
4. New Super Mario Bros. 13.16M
5. Brain Training 11.69M
6. More Brain Training 9.85M -  As others have said, handheldDS games don't belong here. Comparing consoles to handhelds has always been considered apples and oranges. 
7. Wii Play 9.70M - Likely to beat SSBB but only as a "tagalong" with a Wiimote.
8. Mario Kart DS 9.45M
9. Animal Crossing: Wild World 8.90M
10. Super Mario Galaxy 5.54M  - Finally we get to a "real" console game, not attatched to anything else to boost sales. This may end up beating SSBB, but it may not. The online aspect of Brawl is going to be a big draw.
11. Wii Fit 1.28M - A ballsy call, but one that may be right. Too much of a wild card to say for sure, but Isuspect that the odds are against it.
12. Mario Kart Wii - This one has a chance, but should not be seen as a slam dunk.  Look how poorly Double Dash did compared to Melee.

And, additional games of which at least 3 will beat Brawl...

Animal Crossing Wii - Not based on GCN sales. ACWii will be lucky to hit 8million.
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 - Only when both PS3 and 360 sales are combined. This goes for future installments too. Though one must also wonder if the GTA franchise will peter out - it is rare for the top series of one gen to remain on top the next.
Subsequent GTA games for any home system - See GTA4
Halo 3 7.13M - Unlikely. Halo and SSBB sold in similar numbers last gen, with similarly sized user bases. This time out, the Wii will have a significantly expanded base benefiting Brawl, with only a modest expansion for the 360. Also Halo 3 faces more competition, both from other shooters and likely more Halo titles. Brawl is likely to be the only SSB game this generation.
Gran Turismo 5 - Possible, but unlikely given the changing dynamic of both systems. The PS3 will have a substantially smaller user base, so it is likely GT5 will see some erosion of sales, while Brawl gets a big lift from the Wii.
Subsequent Brain Training games for DS or Wii -Wii BT has sold well, but hasn't come close to the DS sales, and won't be a patch on SSBB.
Subsequent Nintendogs games for DS or Wii - I Still say WiiDogs will be out this year, and it will be absolutely huge. However, like Pokemon and Brain Training, this is a franchise that is more suited to the handheld market, so I don't expect it to be able to match the sales of it's DS counterpart by a long shot. Whether it beats Brawl or not will largely depend on just how well Nintendo executes the title.
Wii Music or other as-of-yet-unknown Wii brand games - Unless it's WiiSports2, unlikely.
Other unknown game(s) - Now you're just being cheap. If this is here, why bother listing any of the others? After all, by including this, you're saying "any three games that beat SSBB proves I'm right."

Brawl will cruise past the sales of the previous versions. It will make a run at 10 million sales. But it will not be the biggest game this generation. It will not sell 12, 15 or 20 million.


I see 10 million pretty easily, and a good shot at 12. 15 or higher would mean the Wii itself will be far more successful than many of us expect, and in that case many titles will see their numbers similarly inflated.

While I give you credit for a gutsy call here, I think you've stepped a little to far out on your limb. Brawl will be a contender for biggest title this generation, and only GTA, Nintendogs, Mario, WiiSports2 and GT5 have a very good chance of beating it, with only a handful of other titles with outside shots. There's always the chance that a new phenomenon will come along, but there's no way Brawl doesn't make the Top Ten for this generation, and it is almost a lock for the Top 5.



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I like Bacon on 08 February 2008

I can see SSBB going past 12 million. and I think that list is horrible. why? well, other people already gave you good reasons.



TheSource on 08 February 2008

This will vary widely by region.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Erik Aston on 09 February 2008

Handheld vs home systems has usually been an unfair comparison in favor of the home systems. Handhelds have lower attach rates, and until DS lower overall sales, which means there are fewer mega-hits. As I pointed out, only 8 GB/GBA games in history outsold Melee. 5 of them were Pokemon games; only 1 on DS. 2 were pack-ins; none on DS. But there are already 7 >Melee hits on DS.

Price advantage of handheld games? C'mon. Unit sales remains more important than revenue. Though if you want to talk revenue, make sure to mention it with Halo and GTA. And suddenly Guitar Hero and Rock Band enter the conversation too.


Other than a few titles like Mario Party and Animal Crossing, the traditional franchises which have been boosted by DS and Wii have not exploded past historical sales. Smash may beat historical sales by a wider margin than the likes of Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, etc., but it will not sell at twice or three times historical levels. I expect around 50% higher than Melee, or 10 million sales.

Anyways, if you think parts of the prediction are fluff, hold me to the bits about MK: Wii and DS, Galaxy, Wii Fit, Brain Training 1 and 2 and Animal Crossing DS all beating Brawl, which seem to be controversial enough. I'm done explaining myself and ready to "wait and see."



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

TWRoO on 09 February 2008
Erik Aston said:

1. Wii Sports 18.52M (of course)
2. Nintendogs 17.35M (definately)
3. Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 13.65M (Yep)
4. New Super Mario Bros. 13.16M (Very very probably)
 Super Smash Bros 64 + Melee 12.13M
5. Brain Training 11.69M (Yes)
6. More Brain Training 9.85M (Aye)
7. Wii Play 9.70M (Yarr! for sure)
8. Mario Kart DS 9.45M (possibly)
9. Animal Crossing: Wild World 8.90M (I am doubtful, but maybe)
Super Smash Bros Melee 6.58M
Super Smash Bros 64 5.55M
10. Super Mario Galaxy 5.54M (I think it unlikely)
11. Wii Fit 1.28M (Yes again)
12. Mario Kart Wii (Yep)

And, additional games of which at least 3 will beat Brawl...

Animal Crossing Wii (nope)
Grand Theft Auto IV 360 (very doubtfull)
Subsequent GTA games for any home system (no idea)
Halo 3 7.13M (nope)
Gran Turismo 5 (unlikely, but it's hard to say)
Subsequent Brain Training games for DS or Wii (perhaps for DS, unlikely for Wii)
Subsequent Nintendogs games for DS or Wii (subsequent Nintendogs games so far have been exactly the same game)
Wii Music or other as-of-yet-unknown Wii brand games (very doubtful on Wii music, no idea for the unknown)
Other unknown game(s) (maybe)


My thoughts

That's 8 definates and an almost definate, and 3 possibles in your first list of 12.

The second list is 2 No's and a list of unlikely or possibles.

--------

for the Wii alone, I am sure 4 games will have sold more (Sports, Play, Fit + MarioKart), and possibly an announced game or something.

If we talk consoles only, there are a further 3 unlikely/possibles, those being GTA4 for 360, any subsequent GTA, and GT5.

So the worst position I think Brawl can be in would be 9th going by consoles alone. and maybe 15-16th by all platforms.... bare in mind Melee was 11th from last generation (9th by console alone)

 

So it seems you may be correct (it could be 16th), but I am doubtfull, I think it will likely end up around 10th/11th position, based on it being higher by consoles alone, but the DS has sold more huge software than GBA did so that drags it down.

Most of the time I am all for comparisons between handheld and console numbers (hardware or software) but when you bring in a specific generation in it complicates things because handheld generations don't tie in with console generations.... like the GBA being released only half a year or so before GC, yet the DS was 2 years before the Wii. 

 



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ikilledkenny on 09 February 2008

I'll have to disagree. Smash Brothers will beat Mario Kart, both Brain Training games, Super Mario Galaxy, Animal Crossing Wild World. Wii Fit is impossible to gauge, but it problably won't beat Brawl. Unless you combine 360+PS3 sales for GTA, none of the games in the second list will pass it. That makes only 6 games that will beat it, 4 of which are on DS.


TWRoO on 09 February 2008

^ Tell me why Brawl will sell more than MK?



Riot Of The Blood on 09 February 2008

Nintendogs and Wii sports are the only games I can see ouselling Brawl. I'm expecting no less than 14m units sold for Brawl.



I am Washu-bot B, loyal servant of Final-Fan, the greatest scientific genius in the universe!


kanchu on 09 February 2008
supermario128 said:
Wii Sports
Wii Play
SSBB
SMG
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Fit

Will all be above Brain Training.

 I think the order will be:

Wii Sports

Wii Play

Mario Kart Wii

SSBB

Wii Fit

SMG



I am a PC gamer.

Renar on 09 February 2008

To me, SSBB will define how 'hardcore' versus how 'casual' the Wii really is. SSBB somewhat requires you to be good at it, and a casual probably isn't going to like that. Hardcore like to work at their games, to become as good as they can get. Casuals like to enjoy their games more. Which is why Nintendogs with petting and grooming sell well to the 'less aggressive' :) population, as well as Animal Crossing games. Ones that fall a bit in the middle are the turned based games, like RPGs.

Strangely enough, WiiSports also straddles both categories, allowing for you to work at it to get better, or just to play around and have fun.

If the casuals become >>> than the hardcore as Wii owners, games sales will reflect that, naturally. Which will boost some games to higher than SSBB than one would suspect as of now.



Torturing the numbers.  Hear them scream.