snowdog said:
Not that ambitious when you consider the software that's on the way - Wii Fit, Pikmin 3, The Wonderful 101, Game & Wario, Wind Waker HD, 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 should all be released before the end of the year. It has an installed userbase of around 3m (?) so far, should do 3m between now and November and should easily do 4m+ from November until the end of the year assuming that 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 are released in November. And publishers will support it fine if it has a third of the marketshare thanks to Nintendo having a console with a standard rendering pipeline and an architecture very similar to the other two current gen consoles. It's going to be much easier for developers to port between the Wii U/PS4/720 than it currently is to port between the Wii U/PS3/360. And the difference in power between the Wii U and the other consoles isn't going to be that much of a problem either. For some strange reason people seem to be thinking that the Wii U is going to continue selling at its current rate and that both the PS4 and 720 are not only going to do gangbusters at launch but will continue to do gangbusters into the launch window and beyond. It's not going to happen. Both the PS4 and 720 are going to be more expensive than the Wii U, certainly over $400 imo, and they're also going to be supply constrained. I personally can't see either one of them doing over 2m before the end of the year and for the first 4 or 5 months of the year sales are going to go right downhill because nobody has any cash to spare after Christmas. If the Wii U does over 10m, the PS4 under 2m and the 720 under 2m even EA are going to change their tune with regards to Wii U support otherwise shareholders will go apeshit. |
I'm not sure how the Wii U can get another 3m between now and November. At the current rate of about 30k a week it will get about another 0.7m. It would have to start consistently beating the 360, something it hasn't been able to do even once. You'll probably see something like 1.5m.
And the 4m+ in the holidays? It seems more likely that the new games will cancel out with the increased competition, so it will probably be about the same.
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