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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Would an industry crash be such a bad thing?

A crash is never a good thing.

A crash is a catastrophy for everyone, from indie, to games, to industry. 

A crash would mean that for several years, we would be left with lame consoles from companies with absolutely no way to challenge or push the boundaries, the same for developpers, and creativity.

But it's more likely that there will be a transition. Piracy and Indie gaming are helping to push this transition toward new models. 



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Sometimes I feel the PS360 were just too damn powerful which resulted in a huge jump in cost of making games. If ur losing $200+ per unit sold then u probably shouldnt release it. I wish Wii was a little stronger, they had a huge profot margin at launch and would have been nice if the upped the specs a bit and sold at $250 for a small profit while PS360 should have been $400 at launch and sold for a slight loss($50-100 at the most). Wii woild have gotten some more multiplats but would still be the lesser version, while PS360 games wouldnt look as good but would still be a pretty big leap from PS2/Xbox.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RicardJulianti said:

So, we all know the large companies haven't been doing so hot lately. Square Enix and their layoffs, THQ shutting down, EA laying off 10% of their work force, ballooning budgets that will grow even more etc etc

IF the industry were to go through another crash, would it be this horrible thing that ruins the industry or would we get more out of it than we lose? It most certainly wouldn't be a crash in the same manner as the one in '83, but more along the lines of a pruning. The major companies are choking out the mid-tier companies, forcing them into thinking they need to have massive budgets in order to compete. This leads to studio closures, even from the smaller studios within big companies like EA, Capcom, and so on.

I wrote an article on the subject where I go into more detail about why I think it could end up benefiting us in the long run. Not that I want it to happen of course. You can read it here: http://playeressence.com/would-another-industry-crash-be-such-a-bad-thing/

So what do you guys think? Good? Bad? Not even remotely possible that it will happen?

What you would have is a purging of all secondary people who don't really know games but add production value to games, and the stuff people like in games on the high end.  This means remotely decent scripts will be gone.  Also gone is voice actors, and effects.  You then seen big projects not getting funded.  The portable market gets people into it, and videogames become secondary to society.  The videogame industry becomes one big Apple App Store, with low budget stuff and indie guys making bulk of the stuff.  Loveable characters and whatnot are the cut the rope lizard thing, and angry birds.  Pretty much good bye high production values you have loved.

For me, it means everyone ends up on my level, that of the starving artist.

Thing is a crash means an end to almost all AAA stuff, and games being secondary on portable devices.  Go look back at the crash in the 1980s to see what happened there.



Thousands of people losing their jobs, entire genres being lost with no AAA experiences, leaving us with just the indie scene plus mobile, web and casual games and a handful of mid tier games and CoD as they are still profitable profitable. Yea that would be pretty fucking terrible.



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richardhutnik said:
RicardJulianti said:

So, we all know the large companies haven't been doing so hot lately. Square Enix and their layoffs, THQ shutting down, EA laying off 10% of their work force, ballooning budgets that will grow even more etc etc

IF the industry were to go through another crash, would it be this horrible thing that ruins the industry or would we get more out of it than we lose? It most certainly wouldn't be a crash in the same manner as the one in '83, but more along the lines of a pruning. The major companies are choking out the mid-tier companies, forcing them into thinking they need to have massive budgets in order to compete. This leads to studio closures, even from the smaller studios within big companies like EA, Capcom, and so on.

I wrote an article on the subject where I go into more detail about why I think it could end up benefiting us in the long run. Not that I want it to happen of course. You can read it here: http://playeressence.com/would-another-industry-crash-be-such-a-bad-thing/

So what do you guys think? Good? Bad? Not even remotely possible that it will happen?

What you would have is a purging of all secondary people who don't really know games but add production value to games, and the stuff people like in games on the high end.  This means remotely decent scripts will be gone.  Also gone is voice actors, and effects.  You then seen big projects not getting funded.  The portable market gets people into it, and videogames become secondary to society.  The videogame industry becomes one big Apple App Store, with low budget stuff and indie guys making bulk of the stuff.  Loveable characters and whatnot are the cut the rope lizard thing, and angry birds.  Pretty much good bye high production values you have loved.

For me, it means everyone ends up on my level, that of the starving artist.

Thing is a crash means an end to almost all AAA stuff, and games being secondary on portable devices.  Go look back at the crash in the 1980s to see what happened there.

If there was a "crash", it most certainly wouldn't happen the way it did in the 1980's. Customers wouldn't lose complete confidence in the gaming industry, it would just be sustained by the company faithful just as it once was until this all repeats itself. Saying everything would turn into one big Apple App Store is a gross exaggeration. There are plenty of people, with more than enough money, to fund development of games as we know them, just with some cuts. Nintendo has gotten along just fine without full voice acting, scripts and frill effects that just balloon the development budget for 30 years now. The Wii didn't even have programmable shaders, yet some of the highest rated games of the last generation were on the console as well as absolutely stunning visuals. The production values (see: polish) is second to none on those titles as well. It is simply a matter of development tactics.

The "Big 3" would still have money since Sony and MS still have other avenues of income to fall back on while Nintendo could take losses as big as they did this last year and still be around for 30-40 years before they had to sell off assets. Those 3 would either buy up studios or fund development of games, giving those people jobs, development experience, and money so they could then fund their own games in the future.

It almost seems like you didn't read the article at all as I am having to repeat most of what is said there.

You should take a look at my other article that is linked in that one and ignore the console specifics. 1080p vs 720 is almost negligible when you sit far enough away from the screen. Generally, I feel like people sit at least 5-7 feet away from their TV, but without a 40-46" screen and perfect eyesight, they aren't physically capable of detecting the difference at that distance. 



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Having now read your linked article full of misinformation, bullshit and what can only be described as Nintendo fanboyism. I can only disagree more a crash would by very definition mean a catastrophic reduction in consumer and investor confidence which would lead to less games with lower budgets. The loss of the marketing and promotion muscle of AAA games alone would be catastrophic for core games especially the already ailing console business. Without those tent-pole releases and their marketing budgets consumer awareness of gaming as a whole would drop and with it hardware adoption. user base, and investment across the board.

The loss of major publishers like EA, Ubisoft, Square Enix, Take-Two, Capcom etc would leave a massive hole in the videogame release schedule that just wouldn't be filled. THQ was a mid tier publisher and even with the loss of that small player will mean the loss of several studios and found many IPs struggling to find buyers and ended up being sold off at bargain prices to small publishers that do not have the resources to develop even half of them. The fall of THQ is still being felt across the industry in terms of investment and led to a lot of cancellations. And also left dozens of creditors and independent developers out of pocket including the likes of Double Fine, and left hundreds out of work. EA is over 8X bigger than THQ their loss alone would be catastrophic, there would just not be enough investment money in gaming to even pick up a tenth of what would flood the market and alone would mean thousands of devs unemployed.

And the shaking of investor confidence (which is already drying up) of even one of the major players would have drastic effects on developers across the board from indies to AAA. You see most so called indie devs these days get funding from various private sources as well as major publisher. Publishers like EA fund many smaller developers in publishing smaller games in addition to their own AAA releases. Even Nintendo would be struck extremely hard by the loss of major 3rd party publishers even with the little support they get it's still key to their business model, and they would not be immune to a lack of investor confidence ether.

And of course a major retraction in investment would of course also lead to more conservative decision making. If you think the current climate is bad of original IPs and risk taking it would only get worse with the collapse of top tier development. Only the surest of sure fire bets would be taken with a greater increase in recycled content and focus tested design. And of course prices and exploitative business models would be even more appealing to investors. With the age of F2P, freemium and $0.99 apps plus the indie scene pushing compelling experiences for budget prices, you just can't expect people outside of a small niche market to pay for mid tier games at full prices anymore. And going low budget super niche can't work for the majority of the market.



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zarx said:
Having now read your linked article full of misinformation, bullshit and what can only be described as Nintendo fanboyism. 

I stopped reading here. It's an opinion article, so obviously.......it's an opinion. There is no "Nintendo fanboyism" either. A fanboy would have gone on and on about "Nintendo saved the industry single handedly! Only their method of development is viable! Sony and MS are going third party if this happens! LOLOLOLOL"

None of that was said. If you can't have a discussion about the topic without resorting to that kind of crap, there is no point in me trying.



I wouldn't mind a crash that leaves Nintendo to bring back the industry again.



Hideo Baba of the Tales of Series said something pretty interesting a few weeks/months ago

Developers didn't lose in quality or anything like that.
They lost their way and tried to conquer a market they don't belong to and their fans didn't want to see them in.
Developers,especially Japanese Developers need to stop to westernize everything and go back to the roots.

SquareEnix,Capcom and others are only doing so bad cause they abandoned their fanbase and where they came from.They tried to change everything their fans started to like them for to get the attention of 25 Million CoD Fans that don't care for anything else.

Gamers see and feel if a developer is genuine with what and for which community they create the stuff.
Sony and their studios can create so many new and different Games cause you see their developers really want to make them.
It's not "So guy - I don't care if you want to innovate - Turn Little Big Planet now into CoD and everyone will love us cause 25 Million are bigger than the few million LBP Fans"
This is what Capcom with Resident Evil and SquareEnix with Final Fantasy for example thought or rather their bosses.At SquareEnix we could see how Wada thought like that while their smart developers like Team Nomura didn't want to do that at all.
Why?Cause those 25 Million targets don't care but at the same time you lose most of your fans.

Solution :
Go back to your roots like Hideo Baba said.
Create the game you really want to make for the community that is hyped from the first moment you announce the game.

No industry crash is needed - Just change back where you where before the PS360 Gen.




RicardJulianti said:
zarx said:
Having now read your linked article full of misinformation, bullshit and what can only be described as Nintendo fanboyism. 

I stopped reading here. It's an opinion article, so obviously.......it's an opinion. There is no "Nintendo fanboyism" either. A fanboy would have gone on and on about "Nintendo saved the industry single handedly! Only their method of development is viable! Sony and MS are going third party if this happens! LOLOLOLOL"

None of that was said. If you can't have a discussion about the topic without resorting to that kind of crap, there is no point in me trying.

Are you calling all Nintendo fanboys retarded lunatics? Fanboyism doesn't have to mean completly devorced from reality. From your peice it's clear you are a Nintendo fan and that colours your perception of things in a very clear way. And putting that aside your article is still full of untrue things it's clearly poorly researched, the peice on 38 Studios in particular was full of inaccuracies. You completly whitewash the negative imapct that these things would have, and you completly ignore entire swaves of the gaming industry.



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