This whole time I have been saying "It's too early to tell if the Wii U is screwed." However last night I finally just came to the conclusion that there is no way this system will do well. I am saying it will sell 15-40 million. Here's why:
People will not buy it because:
-PSN and LIVE have a loyal fanbase built up that want to keep their accounts. They will not switch to the Wii U.
[Just because you own both, does not mean most do. You are the minority]
-It is effectively the same strength as current consoles with a little extra ram.
-The touchpad is not enough to justify its price premium, and the PS4 will have Vita/720 will have tablets.
-No compelling third party games you can't get elseware
Third Parties will not support it well because:
-Since no version has enough storage there will effectively little to no DLC,and no games can be installed. This means longer load times and its extra power is completely bottlenecked by the lack of storage.
Edit: NFS on Wii U will be the only version to not get DLC.
-Large updates are not feasable. BF3's total update space is around 7 GB before DLC.
Edit: BF4 confirmed to not be on the Wii U, but will be on PS360 and Next Gen Consoles.
-The Next Gen consoles will be easy to program for like PC versions of games, and the PS360 have already been completely figured out. There is no reason to figure out another IBM CPU for an install base of a few million, when an install base of 150 Mil is sitting around.
Edit: GTAV, Saints Row IV, and Dead Island: Riptide also confirmed to not be on the Wii U, but will be on PS360 and Next Gen Consoles.
Edit: Deap Silver games as just flat out said they will not support the Wii U.
A price cut and games will not change this because:
-If it is cut to $200 when the PS4 comes out, PS360 will be $100-$200 and have a 7+ year library of great games.
-The PS4 will be about 10 times stronger and far more capaple. This is where the hardcore will go.
-Great games will sell some consoles but remember I said 15-35 million. I doubt it will be as bad as the dreamcast.
Put a fork in it, it's done. If you want to debate this, fine. But I ask people to not change the subject to vita or 3DS. Those are a whole other beast, and changing the subject to them basically tells me you have nothing to say.
NOTE: The things in bold are edits. I will be updating this thread over the course of the Wii U's life until it is over to confirm any predictions I made that come true. My initial prediction was: [ 15-40 million (3/22/13)]
Current PC Build:
i7-4770K @ 4.6 GHz, Sapphire 7970 CF at 1215/1830, 4GBx2 2133MHz RAM, 500GB SSD + 1TB HDD, Blue Ray Drive, and an awesome little case.