This whole time I have been saying "It's too early to tell if the Wii U is screwed." However last night I finally just came to the conclusion that there is no way this system will do well. I am saying it will sell 15-40 million. Here's why:
People will not buy it because:
-PSN and LIVE have a loyal fanbase built up that want to keep their accounts. They will not switch to the Wii U.
[Just because you own both, does not mean most do. You are the minority]
I personally dropped the expensive XB Live account for the Wii U and PS3. I do very little online gaming, thus far do not miss Achievements (and don't care about Trophies on my PS3). Sony already doesn't allow you to carry over games you purchased on the PS3 to the PS4, so maintaining an account there seems a little hollow.
-It is effectively the same strength as current consoles with a little extra ram.
So what? The DS was roughly the same power as an optimized, efficient N64. The Wii was roughly the same power as an efficient original Xbox. The PSP was just a portable PS2. What's your point? RAM does not magically equal quality games.
-The touchpad is not enough to justify its price premium, and the PS4 will have Vita/720 will have tablets.
Using the Vita like the GamePad is highly unintuitive and very simply, not consumer-friendly. It is not a feature that will be widely used. Microsoft SmartGlass is essentially a failure and was a flawed concept from the start. Microsoft potentially having a tablet controller will not hurt the Wii U. Rather, it has the potential for creating that format as a new industry norm, and any game built on Wii U or Durango would make sense on the other--pretty much all modern game engines are scalable, so anything made for the Durango can be scaled back to the Wii U--and the leap to the Durango and PS4 is noted for not being as drastic as the leap from Xbox to X360 or PS2 to PS3, technologically.
-No compelling third party games you can't get elseware
The EXACT SAME THING will be true of the PS4 and Durango, and to be perfectly frank, is becoming increasingly true of the X360 as Microsoft gradually loses more and more 1st party games. People like you complained before that the Wii was a failure because it DIDN'T have the exact same third party games as everyone else, now because the Wii U will, you think it's a failure again? A good 99% of "compelling 3rd party games" these days will always be multiplatform in some way or another.
Third Parties will not support it well because:
-Since no version has enough storage there will effectively little to no DLC,and no games can be installed. This means longer load times and its extra power is completely bottlenecked by the lack of storage.
Long load times are here to stay, even on the PS3 which REQUIRES installation of almost every game. This hardly matters as 3rd party devs are used to it by now. Games will have ample DLC, and several already do. Any harddrive can be attached and most harddrive space of the PS3 is taken up by forced installation of games, not DLC. This is an illogical reason for third party devs to develop on the system.
-Large updates are not feasable. BF3's total update space is around 7 GB before DLC.
You're making an assumption based on one game.
-The Next Gen consoles will be easy to program for like PC versions of games, and the PS360 have already been completely figured out. There is no reason to figure out another IBM CPU for an install base of a few million, when an install base of 150 Mil is sitting around.
Where are you getting these magic numbers and assumptions? The only consoles I know of with installed bases of 150 million are the PS2 and original DS. The GameCube and Wii were notable for being developer-friendly, and the Wii U follows the same design principle.
A price cut and games will not change this because:
-If it is cut to $200 when the PS4 comes out, PS360 will be $100-$200 and have a 7+ year library of great games.
Price cuts pretty much always lead to increased sales, especially with accompanying advertising. By the time the PS4 and Durango launch, sales of the PS3 and X360 will begin to decline, and will decline rapidly by late 2014 when the sophomore releases for the PS4 and Durango finally show them off. At the time the PS4 and Durango launch, the Wii U will be seeing it's all-important sophomore releases hit the market, and this is typically when a console starts to see it's first major "defining" titles. Note: This is the period when Gears of War and Halo 3 launched on the X360. The year before those games was mostly crap for the Xbox 360.
-The PS4 will be about 10 times stronger and far more capaple. This is where the hardcore will go.
No it's not and raw power does not magically translate into hardware sales. Do I need to do my analysis here? The most powerful hardware has NEVER been the market leader in development or sales.
-Great games will sell some consoles but remember I said 15-40 million. I doubt it will be as bad as the dreamcast.
The Dreamcast only sold about 10 million it's two years on the market. The Wii U is roughly half that already.
Put a fork in it, it's done. If you want to debate this, fine. But I ask people to not change the subject to vita or 3DS. Those are a whole other beast, and changing the subject to them basically tells me you have nothing to say.