Famitsu has released the result of a recent poll, about what systems people plan to buy in Japan this year, participant can pick multiple systems; the result shows that 64% of Japanese plans to buy PS Vita this year, followed by 48% for 3DS and 33.8% for Wii U; 10% of people also picked smartphone (other than iPhone). 75.6% of participants were male and 24.4% were female.
Hype Meter Final fantasy X/X-2 HD (PS3/Vita) Tales of Xillia (PS3)Kingdom Hearts HD(PS3)Pokemon X/Y (3DS)
The stone made a wish. "I want to shine!" That stone traveled from person to person, keeping its wish. And now, it's shining in your hand Dagger. If you're willing to make an effort, you'll shine too someday! final fantasy ix (Zidane x Garnet)
34.6 million gaming devices were sold in Japan. (360 + PS3 + Wii + 3DS + PS Vita) Not counting PSP, WiiU and DS. So there are 34.6 million players.
So, 64% means 22.14 million PS Vitas will be sold in Japan in the next 12 months. Seems legit.
Top 5 responses from different users to Sonys forecast to ship only 5 million PS Vita and PSP combined for the entire year:
No. 5: "They probably prefer lower sales rather than makes losses" by Somini No. 4: "PSVita's hardware is not like a handheld, its more along the lines of a living room game console in the portable case"by Joeorc No. 3: "PS3 and PS4 are hurting the vita." by SOLIDSNAKE08 No. 2: "As long as Vita is on the market, its not a failure." by VGKing No. 1: "The Vita is not a mainstream console!" by Somini